world t bred rankings

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

If it was a prep then maybe thats a big problem with the game.

What? That horses are flesh and blood and can't be expected to run their top race every time they run?

What about all those bettors that made him odds on?

Those are the bettors that you make money off of. The one's that don't see the big picture (BC Preview Day) or recognize today's conditions (lone speed horse, Haynesfield, a multiple winner over the track and distance) may not be ideal.

The same type of bettors that "overreact" to the progression or regression of a horse. Blame had only been favored in one stakes race in his career up to that point, the Grade 3 Schaefer at Pimlico. He was suddenly a monster because he beat the much lauded Quality Road at Saratoga.

The same thing occured, full circle, with Unrivaled Belle this year. She trumped uber-filly Rachel Alexandra and therefore became an instant "monster", going off at odds-on in 2 of her next 3 starts. Yet fans had enough of her runner-up efforts in those races, including a 2nd in the Beldame (yet another perfect "prep" if you look at the big picture), and let her go off at 7-1 in the BC Distaff.

He really should have run 3rd, if Fly Down could just figure things out.

That would have been great. Then those with your mentality might have really got off him and let him get away at 8-1 or so.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

What? That horses are flesh and blood and can't be expected to run their top race every time they run?



Those are the bettors that you make money off of. The one's that don't see the big picture (BC Preview Day) or recognize today's conditions (lone speed horse, Haynesfield, a multiple winner over the track and distance) may not be ideal.

The same type of bettors that "overreact" to the progression or regression of a horse. Blame had only been favored in one stakes race in his career up to that point, the Grade 3 Schaefer at Pimlico. He was suddenly a monster because he beat the much lauded Quality Road at Saratoga.

The same thing occured, full circle, with Unrivaled Belle this year. She trumped uber-filly Rachel Alexandra and therefore became an instant "monster", going off at odds-on in 2 of her next 3 starts. Yet fans had enough of her runner-up efforts in those races, including a 2nd in the Beldame (yet another perfect "prep" if you look at the big picture), and let her go off at 7-1 in the BC Distaff.



That would have been great. Then those with your mentality might have really got off him and let him get away at 8-1 or so.

Haynesfield was a winner at 10f before the JCGC?

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Haynesfield was a winner at 10f before the JCGC?

Yeah, you got me. I guess the Suburban is only 9f nowadays.

Disregard everything I said.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Yeah, you got me. I guess the Suburban is only 9f nowadays.

Disregard everything I said.

Your mostly right anyway, I just think when a horse is crushed to odds on, he should be ready to run. I get the prep thing, just arguing my point.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Your mostly right anyway, I just think when a horse is crushed to odds on, he should be ready to run. I get the prep thing, just arguing my point.

He should be ready to run? For who's benefit? It's called handicapping. Bettors are competing against each other, not the horsemen. There's much more to it besides merely identifying the fastest horse. That's why they put all those trainer stats and what not along with the PPs.

Bettors are on the outside looking in, for the most part disconnected from the intentions of the horsemen (who are involved in a totally different aspect of the sport). Sometimes being aware of (or at least considering) the patterns and trends that have more to do with the human connections rather than the horse itself can be an advantage.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I've seen countless examples of horses running giant races in what connections have called "preps" going in .. only to lay an egg when supposed to step up in their main objective.

I think Blame and Fly Down both ran every bit as well as they did in the BC Classic that they did in the JCGC. I know the speed figures won't reflect it - though I've heard CJ say he thinks the 111 Classic Beyer is a little too high and I agree.

I think the difference between the two races was that Haynesfield was loose on an unpressured lead in one ... and in the other one - he got squeezed hard coming out of the gate - and was denied the lead in the BC Classic pace meltdown.

I think a better example of horse prepping is obviously Zenyatta. All of her wins this year can be called preps. And in true "prep race" fashion - her trainer all of a sudden turned up the heat in her training right before the Classic.

To me - if a race is really a prep - and you have a horse short - there should be a sign of more intense training leading into the objective race. They worked Zenyatta hard for 7fs and 6fs in her final two works - and actually ran a fresh horse at her in the middle of a tag team workout.

Harmonious before her Grade 1 win at Keeneland is another example - she had 28 published works in her career leading into her final race before the KEE win and NOT ONE single bullet work - her first two works for that KEE race are both bullets. She steps up and destroys Evening Jewel (who beat her last time) and wins by a huge margins.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I've seen countless examples of horses running giant races in what connections have called "preps" going in .. only to lay an egg when supposed to step up in their main objective.

I think Blame and Fly Down both ran every bit as well as they did in the BC Classic that they did in the JCGC. I know the speed figures won't reflect it - though I've heard CJ say he thinks the 111 Classic Beyer is a little too high and I agree.

I think the difference between the two races was that Haynesfield was loose on an unpressured lead in one ... and in the other one - he got squeezed hard coming out of the gate - and was denied the lead in the BC Classic pace meltdown.

I think a better example of horse prepping is obviously Zenyatta. All of her wins this year can be called preps. And in true "prep race" fashion - her trainer all of a sudden turned up the heat in her training right before the Classic.

To me - if a race is really a prep - and you have a horse short - there should be a sign of more intense training leading into the objective race. They worked Zenyatta hard for 7fs and 6fs in her final two works - and actually ran a fresh horse at her in the middle of a tag team workout.

Harmonious before her Grade 1 win at Keeneland is another example - she had 28 published works in her career leading into her final race before the KEE win and NOT ONE single bullet work - her first two works for that KEE race are both bullets. She steps up and destroys Evening Jewel (who beat her last time) and wins by a huge margins.

The idea of the prep is to have the horse at his/her best for the target. I realize it doesn't often happen like it is planned...but IMO Stall did not have Blame fully cranked for the JCGC. I said as much after the race. Why would he if the goal was the Classic? That is what I am talking about in regards to a prep.

In regards to Harmonius you're ignoring that she was probably lengths best in the Del Mar Oaks. Evening Jewel got a much better trip and Harmonious drifted out like Swain in the stretch.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Yeah, you got me. I guess the Suburban is only 9f nowadays.

Disregard everything I said.

Why even waste your time? You're talking to someone that thinks running in a prep is what is wrong with the sport. I guess if you started following the sport 5 years ago and had no desire to have any understanding of it prior to that it would make sense....or if you were an idiot.

[RockHardTen1985]

My only point was that these rankings are comical. If Blame is 2 then Z should be tied for, if not 1.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

My only point was that these rankings are comical. If Blame is 2 then Z should be tied for, if not 1.

Why exactly should she be ranked ahead of him?

[RockHardTen1985]

Because she is the better horse. I have no doubt about it. When she was winning the BCLC 3 years ago he was nothing, last year when she was winning the biggest rAce in America the BCC, he had not even won a Stakes yet. He beat her by a nose this year, congrats. The list of legit excuses for Z runs long.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Because she is the better horse. I have no doubt about it. When she was winning the BCLC 3 years ago he was nothing, last year when she was winning the biggest rAce in America the BCC, he had not even won a Stakes yet. He beat her by a nose this year, congrats. The list of legit excuses for Z runs long.

Hard to fault this spot on analysis.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Because she is the better horse. I have no doubt about it. When she was winning the BCLC 3 years ago he was nothing, last year when she was winning the biggest rAce in America the BCC, he had not even won a Stakes yet.

This is some of the worst logic ever posted on this board. That's no mean feat, considering the filth that has been strewn about this place.

And yet, it cut through all that like a hot knife through butter.

He beat her by a nose this year, congrats.

Does this mean Switch should be tied with Blame, too?

The list of legit excuses for Z runs long.

Is one of them that the stretch at CD was too short?

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Because she is the better horse. I have no doubt about it. When she was winning the BCLC 3 years ago he was nothing, last year when she was winning the biggest rAce in America the BCC, he had not even won a Stakes yet. He beat her by a nose this year, congrats. The list of legit excuses for Z runs long.

Since they're done overseas I can't fault you for not knowing how these are compiled. The numbers are assigned to horses based on their best performance in a given year. If you're not familiar with Harbinger go to Youtube and watch his race at Ascot. If you watch it and then think that she should be ranked with him my hats off to you.

As far as what happened one, two and three years ago, they matter as much in those rankings as they do the HOTY vote. Blame was also a graded stakes winner before she won the Classic last year.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

My only point was that these rankings are comical. If Blame is 2 then Z should be tied for, if not 1.

"If not 1" - wow, just wow.

Tears Jerry, tears.