Smart Move By Valdivia

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

We both think that Rosario is a great rider. I think that if you put Rosario on the best horse 100 times, he would probably win around 95-97 times. If you put Martin Pedroza on the best horse 100 times, I think he probably wins 90-92 times.

I wouldn't disagree at all on the margin of a just few points between the two - however, I would disagree that the best horse wins a race over 90% of the time. I think it's less than that.

However, there's a lot more to being a top jockey than just winning when you have the best horse. Jara did that well.

Rosario can steal some - or get better placings than he should - by adjusting to the pace and placing his horse accordingly and saving ground.

Put Martin Garcia on Calvin Borel's last five Kentucky Derby mounts .. where do the five finish? Put Garcia on Make Music For Me in this years Derby and where does he finish?

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I wouldn't disagree at all on the margin of a just few points between the two - however, I would disagree that the best horse wins a race over 90% of the time. I think it's less than that.

However, there's a lot more to being a good jockey than just winning when you have the best horse.

Rosario can steal some - or get better placings than he should - by adjusting to the pace and placing his horse accordingly and saving ground.

Put Martin Garcia on Calvin Borel's last five Kentucky Derby mounts .. where do the five finish? Put Garcia on Make Music For Me in this years Derby and where does he finish?

I agree with you. That was especially the case with Gomez in 2005-2008. He was winning on plenty of horses that weren't the best. He would always be in the perfect spot and would get a perfect trip and would capitalize when another jock would make a mistake. Not only that, but he is so strong coming down the stretch that he would actually move horses up.

With regards to the Ky Derby, that is a unique example because it is always such a big field and mistakes can be magnified. There is also more luck involved because sometimes you're just not going to have anywhere to run. The better jockeys have a better chance of getting through traffic but there is still a lot of luck involved when there is that kind of traffic (20 horses). Gomez almost got put over the rail when they passed the stands the first time this year on Lookin at Lucky. That obviously was not his fault.

By the way, I think you guys are stereotyping Garcia as a guy that always go wide just becasue he kept Lookin at Lucky outside and in the clear. I haven't noticed that he goes any wider than the average jock.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Put Martin Garcia on Calvin Borel's last five Kentucky Derby mounts .. where do the five finish? Put Garcia on Make Music For Me in this years Derby and where does he finish?

You can ask that question to every rider that rode in those derbies that allowed Borel to get to the rail for those derbies, since they are the one's that were actually riding in those races. Conveyance being the exemption.