Smart Move By Valdivia

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

You were knocking Martin Garcia the other day. Just out of curiousity, if you put Martin Garcia on the best horse 100 times, how many times do you think he would win the race. And then let's compare that to the person you think is the best jockey in the country. Who do you think the best jockey is and how many tiimes do you think that jock would win if you put him on the best horse 100 times?

You would have to be a lot more specific. By putting him on "the best horse" 100 times .. do you mean a lukewarm favorite in a wide-open 12 horse turf race - or do you mean Zenyatta against the nags today?

Do you mean an after the fact conclusion of who the best horse was - or a pre-race conclusion?

On a one-dimensional speed horse - all jockey's are prone to lose a race at the break every once and a while like Cost Of Freedom did last week. Some do it more often than others .. but a poor break on a speed horse is the most common way to get "the best horse" soundly beat.

Garcia's thing is to get a clear wide trip - and if his horse is much the best he will win everytime assuming he breaks well.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

You would have to be a lot more specific. By putting him on "the best horse" 100 times .. do you mean a lukewarm favorite in a wide-open 12 horse turf race - or do you mean Zenyatta against the nags today?

Do you mean an after the fact conclusion of who the best horse was - or a pre-race conclusion?

On a one-dimensional speed horse - all jockey's are prone to lose a race at the break every once and a while like Cost Of Freedom did last week. Some do it more often than others .. but a poor break on a speed horse is the most common way to get "the best horse" soundly beat.

Garcia's thing is to get a clear wide trip - and if his horse is much the best he will win everytime assuming he breaks well.

I'm talking about your average race. If you took 100 random races, which would obviously include sprints, routes, grass races etc. and you put him on the best horse in every race, how many would he win? I'm talking about an after the fact conclusion.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

I'm talking about your average race. If you took 100 random races, which would obviously include sprints, routes, grass races etc. and you put him on the best horse in every race, how many would he win? I'm talking about an after the fact conclusion.

Assuming the weights are level and he breaks well - he would get the best Ragozin and Thoro-Graph sheet figure every single time. Of course, there will be times in those turf races with bigger fields where he will finish 4th despite running a Rag figure a length or more faster than the rest of the field.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Assuming the weights are level and he breaks well - he would get the best Ragozin and Thoro-Graph sheet figure every single time. Of course, there will be times in those turf races with bigger fields where he will finish 4th despite running a Rag figure a length or more faster than the rest of the field.

That is what I'm asking you. It doesn't do you any good to have the best sheet number if you lose the race.

Here is what I'm trying to ask you. I assume that you think Dominguez is the best jockey because you are usually very complimentary of him. Let's say that Dominguez wins 100 races out of his next 500 mounts. If you would have put Garcia on those 100 horses that won instead of Dominguez, how many of those races would Garcia have won?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

That is what I'm asking you. It doesn't do you any good to have the best sheet number if you lose the race.

Here is what I'm trying to ask you. I assume that you think Dominguez is the best jockey because you are usually very complimentary of him. Let's say that Dominguez wins 100 races out of his next 500 mounts. If you put Garcia on those 100 winners instead of Dominguez, how many of those races would Garcia win?

Outside of maybe turf routes, I would not rate Dominguez the best jockey in the country.

Guys like Rosario, Dominguez, Gomez etc. are a different type of rider because they save ground. A lot of the horses they win narrowly on Martin Garcia would lose on. There is certainly going to be sometimes where they get one trapped or shuffled and miss - where Garcia would have won by going wide, wide.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Outside of maybe turf routes, I would not rate Dominguez the best jockey in the country.

Guys like Rosario, Dominguez, Gomez etc. are a different type of rider because they save ground. A lot of the horses they win narrowly on Martin Garcia would lose on. There is certainly going to be sometimes where they get one trapped or shuffled and miss - where Garcia would have won by going wide, wide.

I'm surprised that you, a person that likes to try to quantify things, can't seem to even make an atempt to quantify the significance of jockeys.

I will give you my opinion. I can try to quantify it. First off, I think Garcia is a top rider, so I won't use him as an example since we disagree about him. Let's compare Joel Rosario to Martin Pedroza. We both think that Rosario is a great rider. I think that if you put Rosario on the best horse 100 times, he would probably win around 95-97 times. If you put Martin Pedroza on the best horse 100 times, I think he probably wins 90-92 times.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

We both think that Rosario is a great rider. I think that if you put Rosario on the best horse 100 times, he would probably win around 95-97 times. If you put Martin Pedroza on the best horse 100 times, I think he probably wins 90-92 times.

I wouldn't disagree at all on the margin of a just few points between the two - however, I would disagree that the best horse wins a race over 90% of the time. I think it's less than that.

However, there's a lot more to being a top jockey than just winning when you have the best horse. Jara did that well.

Rosario can steal some - or get better placings than he should - by adjusting to the pace and placing his horse accordingly and saving ground.

Put Martin Garcia on Calvin Borel's last five Kentucky Derby mounts .. where do the five finish? Put Garcia on Make Music For Me in this years Derby and where does he finish?