Smart Move By Valdivia

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

You would have to be a lot more specific. By putting him on "the best horse" 100 times .. do you mean a lukewarm favorite in a wide-open 12 horse turf race - or do you mean Zenyatta against the nags today?

Do you mean an after the fact conclusion of who the best horse was - or a pre-race conclusion?

On a one-dimensional speed horse - all jockey's are prone to lose a race at the break every once and a while like Cost Of Freedom did last week. Some do it more often than others .. but a poor break on a speed horse is the most common way to get "the best horse" soundly beat.

Garcia's thing is to get a clear wide trip - and if his horse is much the best he will win everytime assuming he breaks well.

I'm talking about your average race. If you took 100 random races, which would obviously include sprints, routes, grass races etc. and you put him on the best horse in every race, how many would he win? I'm talking about an after the fact conclusion.