Smart Move By Valdivia

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

That is one meet. How did he do at the other 24 meets the last 5 years out here?

I agree with you that he's a total bum ... I was just correcting your mistake.

He finished 10th at Hollywood's Fall Meet in 2008 even though he only had 86 mounts to Bejarno's 241. He was tied for 5th with Rosario in win percentage at that meet, only Bejarano, Gomez, Espinoza, and Baze were higher.

It's all about opportunity. When these guys without much ability finally fall out of favor - they tank. Just as a guy without an ounce of ability will put up big surprising numbers if they stumble into opportunity.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I agree with you that he's a total bum ... I was just correcting your mistake.

He finished 10th at Hollywood's Fall Meet in 2008 even though he only had 86 mounts to Bejarno's 241. He was tied for 5th with Rosario in win percentage at that meet, only Bejarano, Gomez, Espinoza, and Baze were higher.

It's all about opportunity. When these guys without much ability finally fall out of favor - they tank. Just as a guy without an ounce of ability will put up big surprising numbers if they stumble into opportunity.

He's not a bum. He's just not in the top 20 best jockeys in the country. He's probably in the top 30 best jockeys in the country. I would hardly call that being a "bum". If you're in the top 30 best in the entire country in any sport, I would say you're doing pretty well.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

In terms of ability - the difference between being the 8th best jockey in the country and the 88th best jockey is pretty minimal. Opportunity is what separates them - that's why the jockey factor is the most overrated handicapping factor there is IMO.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

In terms of ability - the difference between being the 8th best jockey in the country and the 88th best jockey is pretty minimal. Opportunity is what separates them - that's why the jockey factor is the most overrated handicapping factor there is IMO.

You were knocking Martin Garcia the other day. Just out of curiousity, if you put Martin Garcia on the best horse 100 times, how many times do you think he would win the race. And then let's compare that to the person you think is the best jockey in the country. Who do you think the best jockey is and how many tiimes do you think that jock would win if you put him on the best horse 100 times?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

You were knocking Martin Garcia the other day. Just out of curiousity, if you put Martin Garcia on the best horse 100 times, how many times do you think he would win the race. And then let's compare that to the person you think is the best jockey in the country. Who do you think the best jockey is and how many tiimes do you think that jock would win if you put him on the best horse 100 times?

You would have to be a lot more specific. By putting him on "the best horse" 100 times .. do you mean a lukewarm favorite in a wide-open 12 horse turf race - or do you mean Zenyatta against the nags today?

Do you mean an after the fact conclusion of who the best horse was - or a pre-race conclusion?

On a one-dimensional speed horse - all jockey's are prone to lose a race at the break every once and a while like Cost Of Freedom did last week. Some do it more often than others .. but a poor break on a speed horse is the most common way to get "the best horse" soundly beat.

Garcia's thing is to get a clear wide trip - and if his horse is much the best he will win everytime assuming he breaks well.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

You would have to be a lot more specific. By putting him on "the best horse" 100 times .. do you mean a lukewarm favorite in a wide-open 12 horse turf race - or do you mean Zenyatta against the nags today?

Do you mean an after the fact conclusion of who the best horse was - or a pre-race conclusion?

On a one-dimensional speed horse - all jockey's are prone to lose a race at the break every once and a while like Cost Of Freedom did last week. Some do it more often than others .. but a poor break on a speed horse is the most common way to get "the best horse" soundly beat.

Garcia's thing is to get a clear wide trip - and if his horse is much the best he will win everytime assuming he breaks well.

I'm talking about your average race. If you took 100 random races, which would obviously include sprints, routes, grass races etc. and you put him on the best horse in every race, how many would he win? I'm talking about an after the fact conclusion.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

I'm talking about your average race. If you took 100 random races, which would obviously include sprints, routes, grass races etc. and you put him on the best horse in every race, how many would he win? I'm talking about an after the fact conclusion.

Assuming the weights are level and he breaks well - he would get the best Ragozin and Thoro-Graph sheet figure every single time. Of course, there will be times in those turf races with bigger fields where he will finish 4th despite running a Rag figure a length or more faster than the rest of the field.