Monmouth handle & attendance

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

A +5% ROI in SoCal or NYRA is on much more solid ground than a 20% ROI at PID or PNL. Because big bettors know this, and by and large big bettors are probably better bettors, they aren't going to waste a lot of effort on these smaller places. Thus, the competition is easier. People can argue theories and what ifs all they want, I have studied and bet the pools at most tracks in the US for nearly a decade.

I don't agree with some of this.

PID would be utterly impossible to beat - at 800 races a meet - for anyone if not for the simple fact that - in all 4 meets so far - some pretty powerful and very legit track biases have lingered on for an extended period of time.

It's also a lot better place than most for people who study trainers intently - and it's also a track that runs it's fair share of 2yo maiden races - and you get a lot of debuters in the 3yo maiden races as well ... which, in terms of having to make selections 24 hour out ... would favor me over others I believe. You don't see a lot of public handicappers pick debuters 10/1 on the ML on top .. and in a lot of cases here, those prove to be very bad ML's and those end up being the right horses.

I've had many of my best days betting on the biggest racing days of the year. Breeders Cup Day, Derby day, etc. I've had some of my best meets at Saratoga and AQU Inner. Belmont Spring is the only NYRA meet where I'd been raped and pillaged on more than one occasion.

Bottom line - if PID is a fair racetrack ... your avg good handicapper is dealing with an extremely unattractive situation. Small fields, a lot of uncompetitive races, a lot of maiden races with debuters, Ness running straight down peoples throats. etc.