Monmouth handle & attendance

[philcski]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

How much do you know about betting that you are trying to fool us into thinking 50% of the action is in the win pool?

25% is fair....at best. Suddenly a $40 bet drops the price as much as 60 cents.

But, you have to realize this isn't the entire point. The other part of the point is that the betting crowd isn't sophisticated, which leads to relative overlays, so while in theory you can say this would make it easier to make money, there are still two problems here. One, as was already stated, even minor bets significantly change the prices....and two, the paper ROI is rendered meaningless by both the first reason and the second that there is no sophisticated money in the pools. Both factors that inflate the paper ROI would significantly deflate it in the real world.

The win pool is only 25% of the MUTUEL pool? At what track?!? And you're calling ME out on this??? 50% is probably conservative at a track like PID where the place and show pools are nonexistent! Here is the chart for the last race at PID: http://drf.com/drfPDFChartRacesIndex...=20100703&RN=8

"Sophisticated money" has no bearing on the analysis. The money in the pools is what it is. Where it comes from, either in location or knowledge, is irrelevant once the gates open and the prices are finalized.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by philcski

The win pool is only 25% of the MUTUEL pool? At what track?!? And you're calling ME out on this??? 50% is probably conservative at a track like PID where the place and show pools are nonexistent! Here is the chart for the last race at PID: http://drf.com/drfPDFChartRacesIndex...=20100703&RN=8

"Sophisticated money" has no bearing on the analysis. The money in the pools is what it is. Where it comes from, either in location or knowledge, is irrelevant once the gates open and the prices are finalized.

Our WPS are 33%...which makes 25% a generous estimate. I will look into what they are at smaller tracks. Perhaps you are right but I'm dubious.

However, the second paragraph just shows you aren't thinking this through.

[blackthroatedwind]

It's not a real life example, per se, and this is a very " real life " game.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Did anyone notice all the brilliantly sophisticated money in the pool for the 10th at Churchill Downs yesterday?

Those razor sharpies made Mine That Bird a 5/2 favorite in a 14 horse field... off a layoff and on turf.

What's crazy about PID .. is how much the Euro's seem to love it. On Betfair, I've seen extremely shockingly high liquidty on both sides of each horse - for each horse in the race... in certain races where form is established.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Did anyone notice all the brilliantly sophisticated money in the pool for the 10th at Churchill Downs yesterday?

Those razor sharpies made Mine That Bird a 5/2 favorite in a 14 horse field... off a layoff and on turf.

How is this relevant to picking the winner of the race?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

How is this relevant to picking the winner of the race?

I want to hear more about how you're tearing it up and setting the world on fire at MTH.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I want to hear more about how you're tearing it up and setting the world on fire at MTH.

So you're not restricting yourself to gloating and stating the obvious?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

So you're not restricting yourself to gloating and stating the obvious?

Those posts about my penis have long since been deleated.

Let's get back to how you're tearing it up and setting the world on fire at MTH.

What's been your big edge?

[philcski]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Our WPS are 33%...which makes 25% a generous estimate. I will look into what they are at smaller tracks. Perhaps you are right but I'm dubious.

However, the second paragraph just shows you aren't thinking this through.

You are not following what I'm saying.

The MUTUEL pool total, the number I quoted, is the sum of WPS- you are thinking of a percentage of TOTAL handle (which as you stated at NYRA and most other places is about 33% of total handle). WPS wagering % of the MUTUEL pool is not distributed 33% Win, 33% Place, 33% Show. It's much closer to 50% Win, 25% Place, 25% Show (if not a higher bias towards Win in smaller jurisdictions) barring a bridgejumper getting involved.

My point stands that a $40 bet does not impact the pool materially enough to move a +20% ROI to negative.

If I'm not thinking this through enough... explain to me how "sophisticated money" has any bearing on a finalized pool with final prices. If higher quality bettors starting punting PID, yes it likely be tougher to win there. But they aren't, and they won't be. And that's assuming that everybody that bets PID is a complete moron who can barely read a form.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

July 1st:

Last race at Hollywood Park - field of 11 maidens

WPS pool: 134K
Exacta pool: 68K
Tri Pool: 61K

Last race Presque Isle - field of 9 maidens

WPS pool: 41K
Exacta pool: 32K
Tri Pool: 25K

PID dropped Sunday to run Tuesdays .. because they get totally lost in the shuffle on the weekends. While sh!tty, they aren't exactly handling like a dog track or harness track.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Did anyone notice all the brilliantly sophisticated money in the pool for the 10th at Churchill Downs yesterday?

Those razor sharpies made Mine That Bird a 5/2 favorite in a 14 horse field... off a layoff and on turf.

What's crazy about PID .. is how much the Euro's seem to love it. On Betfair, I've seen extremely shockingly high liquidty on both sides of each horse - for each horse in the race... in certain races where form is established.

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

July 1st:

Last race at Hollywood Park - field of 11 maidens

WPS pool: 134K
Exacta pool: 68K
Tri Pool: 61K

Last race Presque Isle - field of 9 maidens

WPS pool: 41K
Exacta pool: 32K
Tri Pool: 25K

PID dropped Sunday to run Tuesdays .. because they get totally lost in the shuffle on the weekends. While sh!tty, they aren't exactly handling like a dog track or harness track.

Stop making sense.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by philcski

Stop making sense.

I don't disagree with them about this being the wrong place for serious money either ... in fact, I totally agree ... this place is a total sh!t sandwhich if it isn't for the fact that track biases continue on for extended periods of time and don't get addressed... and aren't exactly being as identified and expolited by bettors as they might be somewhere else.

However - for people to think that it's like so much easier to show a paper profit at small tracks ... that's total nonsense. It's laughable.

try handicapping 500 straight races at Pinnacle - try a thousand at Fairmount Park .. try 750 at River Downs ... I would be pumped to bet against myself or anyone else at even money.

Git back on ur jug and let the slicksters tell u the news.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by philcski

You are not following what I'm saying.

The MUTUEL pool total, the number I quoted, is the sum of WPS- you are thinking of a percentage of TOTAL handle (which as you stated at NYRA and most other places is about 33% of total handle). WPS wagering % of the MUTUEL pool is not distributed 33% Win, 33% Place, 33% Show. It's much closer to 50% Win, 25% Place, 25% Show (if not a higher bias towards Win in smaller jurisdictions) barring a bridgejumper getting involved.

My point stands that a $40 bet does not impact the pool materially enough to move a +20% ROI to negative.

If I'm not thinking this through enough... explain to me how "sophisticated money" has any bearing on a finalized pool with final prices. If higher quality bettors starting punting PID, yes it likely be tougher to win there. But they aren't, and they won't be. And that's assuming that everybody that bets PID is a complete moron who can barely read a form.

I'm now officially confused....are you saying there was $14K in the WPS? If that's the case, of course over 50% ( could be 70 even ) is in the win pool. In that case I misunderstood.

As for you refusing to think through an example on paper and a real time example, which is what I am talking about, I don't know how to help you any further. You are stuck on adamantly defending a position that isn't being discussed. This pool is NOT efficient....that is the point. And, yes, you can still bet tens and 20s and not significantly change that, but good luck making money with that strategy. The only way you can make real money, yes...even over time, is if there is enough money in the pool to profit acceptably over time. For that to happen, there will be more sophisticated money in the pool, which forgetting about making your " job " harder, will significantly lower the imaginary ROI we are discussing.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I'm now officially confused....are you saying there was $14K in the WPS? If that's the case, of course over 50% ( could be 70 even ) is in the win pool. In that case I misunderstood.

As for you refusing to think through an example on paper and a real time example, which is what I am talking about, I don't know how to help you any further. You are stuck on adamantly defending a position that isn't being discussed. This pool is NOT efficient....that is the point. And, yes, you can still bet tens and 20s and not significantly change that, but good luck making money with that strategy. The only way you can make real money, yes...even over time, is if there is enough money in the pool to profit acceptably over time. For that to happen, there will be more sophisticated money in the pool, which forgetting about making your " job " harder, will significantly lower the imaginary ROI we are discussing.

Correct- $14k in WPS, otherwise known as the mutuel pool. Perhaps we had a communications error there.

As for the point of significant profit over time- there is no question that if your bets make a material impact on the pool, in essence you're playing against yourself and your job would be more difficult. However, that is not what is being discussed. The question was whether a $40 wager would materially impact a race at Presque Isle Downs with a $14k WPS pool and I proved that it would not- at least not nearly enough to affect CJ's claim that a +20% ROI would turn negative with that size wager.

I do think that you are giving the general public more credit than they deserve by saying because a pool is larger it means the money is smarter. I think it is to some extent- but certainly not all the time or to the magnitude that you seem to credit them. Drugs' example of Mine that Bird yesterday at 5/2 against a salty 14 horse field on a surface he's not bred for, hadn't run on, and hadn't even expected to be in off a long layoff. Or I Want Revenge at 6/5 off a serious injury and lengthy layoff against a good group in the Suburban.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by philcski

Correct- $14k in WPS, otherwise known as the mutuel pool. Perhaps we had a communications error there.

As for the point of significant profit over time- there is no question that if your bets make a material impact on the pool, in essence you're playing against yourself and your job would be more difficult. However, that is not what is being discussed. The question was whether a $40 wager would materially impact a race at Presque Isle Downs with a $14k WPS pool and I proved that it would not- at least not nearly enough to affect CJ's claim that a +20% ROI would turn negative with that size wager.

Aren't exotics part of the mutuel pool?

As for the 20% thing, it was obviously an exaggeration to make a point. I dont' even think DrugS said that is his ROI. But even if it wasn't, do you really think someone can have a +20% over a whole meet on 4 to 1 shots? The bigger the odds, the bigger the effect of a single wager.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

Aren't exotics part of the mutuel pool?

As for the 20% thing, it was obviously an exaggeration to make a point. I dont' even think DrugS said that is his ROI. But even if it wasn't, do you really think someone can have a +20% over a whole meet on 4 to 1 shots? The bigger the odds, the bigger the effect of a single wager.

So now you're backtracking? CJ, you're better than this. I know that.

No, exotics are not part of the mutuel pool size listing. Again, here's the chart from the last race run at PID. http://drf.com/drfPDFChartRacesIndex...=20100703&RN=8 The WPS ("mutuel") pool was $14,219; EX $10,273; TRI $8,660; SUP $2,402 (all pre-takeout numbers of course.)

Can someone have a +20% over a whole meet on 4-1 shots? Sure. Bet 1,000 races at 4-1 and win 240 of them. Someone can have a +20% ROI on 1/5 shots... if they run the table.

One thing that should be noted is horses that are long odds at tracks like PID are huge underlays. Many of them have virtually no chance of winning... are absolute talentless cripples... yet even the token $300 total bet on them causes them to go off at 20-1.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

As for the 20% thing, it was obviously an exaggeration to make a point. I dont' even think DrugS said that is his ROI. But even if it wasn't, do you really think someone can have a +20% over a whole meet on 4 to 1 shots? The bigger the odds, the bigger the effect of a single wager.

Of course I never said my profit was 20% - Jesus Christ.


I was going over some PID stats with a local bettor ... I told him that post position #1 has won 66 out of the 320 races here so far - for a 20.6% win percentage and a mind-boggling $2.85 ROI. That's a 42.5% profit per dollar bet.

Then I told him about how insanely great the stats are for speed.

He goes to me "I can't understand how you're doing so bad with your paper picks? I know your showing a little profit, but if you just picked the speed horse - or even the horse starting from the rail in every race - you'd be doing amazing!"

What they don't realize is that those stats are skewed - not just by the constant speed and rail bias - but also by some GIANT priced winners.

Here's an example of a horse I didn't pick 1st - but picked 2nd behind the favorite.



Summer Outing was drawn wide in post 8 back to back races - and raced wide against the bias in the prior start. By stretching out to two-turns and drawing the great rail post in a race without a lot of speed ... it was an attractive longshot. Look at the weak prior form though! That weak form didn't matter - the horse won by 18 lengths at 12/1 thanks to the bias.