Monmouth handle & attendance

[philcski]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I'm now officially confused....are you saying there was $14K in the WPS? If that's the case, of course over 50% ( could be 70 even ) is in the win pool. In that case I misunderstood.

As for you refusing to think through an example on paper and a real time example, which is what I am talking about, I don't know how to help you any further. You are stuck on adamantly defending a position that isn't being discussed. This pool is NOT efficient....that is the point. And, yes, you can still bet tens and 20s and not significantly change that, but good luck making money with that strategy. The only way you can make real money, yes...even over time, is if there is enough money in the pool to profit acceptably over time. For that to happen, there will be more sophisticated money in the pool, which forgetting about making your " job " harder, will significantly lower the imaginary ROI we are discussing.

Correct- $14k in WPS, otherwise known as the mutuel pool. Perhaps we had a communications error there.

As for the point of significant profit over time- there is no question that if your bets make a material impact on the pool, in essence you're playing against yourself and your job would be more difficult. However, that is not what is being discussed. The question was whether a $40 wager would materially impact a race at Presque Isle Downs with a $14k WPS pool and I proved that it would not- at least not nearly enough to affect CJ's claim that a +20% ROI would turn negative with that size wager.

I do think that you are giving the general public more credit than they deserve by saying because a pool is larger it means the money is smarter. I think it is to some extent- but certainly not all the time or to the magnitude that you seem to credit them. Drugs' example of Mine that Bird yesterday at 5/2 against a salty 14 horse field on a surface he's not bred for, hadn't run on, and hadn't even expected to be in off a long layoff. Or I Want Revenge at 6/5 off a serious injury and lengthy layoff against a good group in the Suburban.