Derby Trail Forums

Go Back   Derby Trail Forums > Main Forum > The Paddock
Register FAQ Members List Calendar Today's Posts

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 07-05-2010, 06:53 PM
MISTERGEE MISTERGEE is offline
Churchill Downs
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: MIAMI
Posts: 1,978
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS View Post
Of course I never said my profit was 20% - Jesus Christ.


I was going over some PID stats with a local bettor ... I told him that post position #1 has won 66 out of the 320 races here so far - for a 20.6% win percentage and a mind-boggling $2.85 ROI. That's a 42.5% profit per dollar bet.

Then I told him about how insanely great the stats are for speed.

He goes to me "I can't understand how you're doing so bad with your paper picks? I know your showing a little profit, but if you just picked the speed horse - or even the horse starting from the rail in every race - you'd be doing amazing!"

What they don't realize is that those stats are skewed - not just by the constant speed and rail bias - but also by some GIANT priced winners.

Here's an example of a horse I didn't pick 1st - but picked 2nd behind the favorite.



Summer Outing was drawn wide in post 8 back to back races - and raced wide against the bias in the prior start. By stretching out to two-turns and drawing the great rail post in a race without a lot of speed ... it was an attractive longshot. Look at the weak prior form though! That weak form didn't matter - the horse won by 18 lengths at 12/1 thanks to the bias.
may I ask are your picks for PID, in the paper but not on the website?
__________________
" I may leave here empty handed, but you aren't going anywhere "
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 07-05-2010, 07:07 PM
The Indomitable DrugS's Avatar
The Indomitable DrugS The Indomitable DrugS is offline
Flemington
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Posts: 11,007
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by MISTERGEE View Post
may I ask are your picks for PID, in the paper but not on the website?
They put them on the website sometimes - and other times they don't. They are always in the paper.

You have to remember - there are like 40 people betting the horses ontrack the average night ... and they have options between my stuff in the paper - or the two TV commentators .. they even had a free tipsheet for a couple years made by one of the on-air guys. He'd pick entirely different horses in the tipsheet than he'd pick on-air .. but he'd say his on-air picks were through handicapping and his tip sheet picks were through his special points system formula .. it was just odd how they NEVER landed on the same top pick.

It's a situation where I could spend 10 seconds a race and handicap a whole card in less than 2 minutes and no one would care. I'd still get paid and I still couldn't do any worse than the track people .. I just have way too much pride and way too much ego to do that.
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 07-06-2010, 11:53 AM
The Indomitable DrugS's Avatar
The Indomitable DrugS The Indomitable DrugS is offline
Flemington
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Posts: 11,007
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rare Bog View Post
Nice clip. Is Indian Charlie supposed to be the guy next to me?
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 07-06-2010, 04:51 PM
Indian Charlie's Avatar
Indian Charlie Indian Charlie is offline
Goodwood
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Southern Maine
Posts: 8,708
Default

ouch.
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 07-07-2010, 06:30 AM
jms62's Avatar
jms62 jms62 is offline
Saratoga
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 19,804
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rare Bog View Post
Thanks but no. That's this clip:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xG7TmEPpvLM
Not for nothing but the fact that you even stumbled across that link speaks volumes.
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 07-07-2010, 09:21 AM
Coach Pants
 
Posts: n/a
Default

The internet is hard for some and whatnot.
Reply With Quote
  #7  
Old 07-07-2010, 09:30 AM
jms62's Avatar
jms62 jms62 is offline
Saratoga
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 19,804
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rare Bog View Post
I hardly stumbled upon it. I went to youtube and searched for "gay sex". I know, the whole search engine thing is new ta ya.
FTFY
Reply With Quote
  #8  
Old 07-07-2010, 09:55 AM
The Indomitable DrugS's Avatar
The Indomitable DrugS The Indomitable DrugS is offline
Flemington
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Posts: 11,007
Default

Bogs is the king of the homoerotic.

Who else would resort to posting links to gay male sex clips in order to try and prove a feeble point?

I'm just amused CJ hasn't expressed his disgust over this.

He doesn't understand how jerkoff jokes can be tolerated by a mod ... yet, it's cool to post unmarked and unwarned links to a clip of softcore gay sex?

I realize it's unlikely, but clicking on such a link is something that could seriously threaten a readers employment if they do so from work.
Reply With Quote
  #9  
Old 07-07-2010, 10:39 AM
cmorioles's Avatar
cmorioles cmorioles is offline
Santa Anita
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 3,169
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS View Post
Bogs is the king of the homoerotic.

Who else would resort to posting links to gay male sex clips in order to try and prove a feeble point?

I'm just amused CJ hasn't expressed his disgust over this.

He doesn't understand how jerkoff jokes can be tolerated by a mod ... yet, it's cool to post unmarked and unwarned links to a clip of softcore gay sex?

I realize it's unlikely, but clicking on such a link is something that could seriously threaten a readers employment if they do so from work.
I don't check in here that much. It is pretty disgusting, no doubt.
Reply With Quote
  #10  
Old 07-07-2010, 09:33 AM
RockHardTen1985 RockHardTen1985 is offline
Flemington
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 11,208
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rare Bog View Post
I hardly stumbled upon it. I went to youtube and searched for "Drugs Indian Charlie". I know, the whole search engine thing is new ta ya.
LOL.... They do love each other.
Reply With Quote
Reply



Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 07:29 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.6.8
Copyright ©2000 - 2025, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.