4/10 (KEE): Blue Grass, Commonwealth, Wiley, Shakertown

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by The Bid

Good horse with no limitation runs right by those. He was ridden like the best horse in the race. He was the best horse in that race to a mile. Past a mile forget about this horse being a factor with anything regardless of the ride he gets.

The problem is that there are very, very few 'good horses with no limitations'. What do you think this is Zenyatta? The fact of the matter is that nothing was winning off the pace in that race. They went 1-2-3 around the track and nothing passed in the lane (at least nothing that passed stayed ahead). If Dublin sits a perfect drafting trip and comes out very late, after Super Saver bids, he wins the race. But there's no jock (other than Dominguez) that rides that way on dirt (unless forced to as a result of trouble).

I think that Dublin got it bad in the race and Noble's Promise got it even worse, as he was squeezed at the break and checked bad on the 1st turn, losing even more position/ground. He was then forced to run in the middle of the race to catch up.

I don't know about anyone else but I tend to give horses another chance, or, at least, I don't consider them plugs, when they're forced to run against the grain, since so few actually do so.

[3kings]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

The problem is that there are very, very few 'good horses with no limitations'. What do you think this is Zenyatta? The fact of the matter is that nothing was winning off the pace in that race. They went 1-2-3 around the track and nothing passed in the lane (at least nothing that passed stayed ahead). If Dublin sits a perfect drafting trip and comes out very late, after Super Saver bids, he wins the race. But there's no jock (other than Dominguez) that rides that way on dirt (unless forced to as a result of trouble).

I think that Dublin got it bad in the race and Noble's Promise got it even worse, as he was squeezed at the break and checked bad on the 1st turn, losing even more position/ground. He was then forced to run in the middle of the race to catch up.

I don't know about anyone else but I tend to give horses a 2nd chance when they're forced to run against the grain since so few actually do so.

I agree with most of this, but he has done this the last few times. He seems like a horse that's good enough to just miss. Will his price be big enough in the Derby to hope he finally gets the perfectly timed trip?

[The Bid]

TFM

He was certainly put into a drive early enough to get to those horses. He just looks flat late to me. Even if TT drafted and came out I do not think he runs past them. Not because of the track, not because those other 2 are good horses, I just think hes beyond his scope. He just doesn't punch on at all.

He will be a total non factor in the Derby.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by The Bid

TFM

He was certainly put into a drive early enough to get to those horses. He just looks flat late to me. Even if TT drafted and came out I do not think he runs past them. Not because of the track, not because those other 2 are good horses, I just think hes beyond his scope. He just doesn't punch on at all.

He will be a total non factor in the Derby.

So there's no misunderstanding, he's definitely a horse that needs help to get to the wire 1st. I can make an 'excuse' for him yesterday but the fact remains that if he has to do a good portion of the running in the race, he's just not getting it done. He needs an 'escort'. He's already demonstrated that he can't run against the grain (to this point). And, like you, I prefer to bet on those horses that have shown the ability to do so.

Of course, in the Derby, there are numerous cases of horses just like him that ended up getting the perfect setup -- and this is what DrugS is probably getting at.