4/10 (KEE): Blue Grass, Commonwealth, Wiley, Shakertown

[The Bid]

TFM

He was certainly put into a drive early enough to get to those horses. He just looks flat late to me. Even if TT drafted and came out I do not think he runs past them. Not because of the track, not because those other 2 are good horses, I just think hes beyond his scope. He just doesn't punch on at all.

He will be a total non factor in the Derby.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by The Bid

TFM

He was certainly put into a drive early enough to get to those horses. He just looks flat late to me. Even if TT drafted and came out I do not think he runs past them. Not because of the track, not because those other 2 are good horses, I just think hes beyond his scope. He just doesn't punch on at all.

He will be a total non factor in the Derby.

So there's no misunderstanding, he's definitely a horse that needs help to get to the wire 1st. I can make an 'excuse' for him yesterday but the fact remains that if he has to do a good portion of the running in the race, he's just not getting it done. He needs an 'escort'. He's already demonstrated that he can't run against the grain (to this point). And, like you, I prefer to bet on those horses that have shown the ability to do so.

Of course, in the Derby, there are numerous cases of horses just like him that ended up getting the perfect setup -- and this is what DrugS is probably getting at.