Two at Toga (2023)

[moses]

Good call!

Wednesday picks.

Race 7 - #3 Portos, 10/1
Race 9 - #5 Sarah Harper, 6/1

[theguarantee]

Best Bet: Race 10 - #2 Fulgini 12/1
Best Value: Race 8 - #7Runaway Rumour

[moses]

Originally Posted by theguarantee

Best Bet: Race 10 - #2 Fulgini 12/1
Best Value: Race 8 - #7Runaway Rumour

Good luck. I circled back to Runaway Rumour a few times. She’s above 20/1. I’m putting a few bucks on Regal Realm but wouldn’t be surprised to see Runaway Rumour run well either.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by theguarantee

Best Bet: Race 10 - #2 Fulgini 12/1
Best Value: Race 8 - #7Runaway Rumour

I bow to your greatness. Educate me. What did I miss with Fulgini>

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by theguarantee

Best Bet: Race 10 - #2 Fulgini 12/1
Best Value: Race 8 - #7Runaway Rumour

Originally Posted by Dahoss

I bow to your greatness. Educate me. What did I miss with Fulgini>

Great job with Fuligni!

(Agree Hossy. Seemed like a filly that was distinctly better on turf..)

[theguarantee]

^thanks guys. I wish I could tell you it was some great piece of handicapping dahoss but it was mainly a stab. Fuligni has been a bit of a pet of mine and while Steve is right that on figs she certainly looked like a better turfer I thought she had some excuses, subtle and weird trips on dirt and just looked like a field that was crying out for a price to me. I always give Bonds horses a second and third look at the Spa and I liked having Rosario up at what would be a square price. She sat an absolutely perfect trip and it was nice it worked out.

Have to update my records but probably won’t get to it until Saturday as I’m away again.

Best Bet: Race 9 - #3 Amazing Grace 5/1 - I loved her Euro form and thought she was tons the best in the NA debut. Had high hopes and she’s disappointed the last two but the first is excusable at slightly shorter behind a slow pace. I don’t think she wants 2 miles as she possesses a really nice turn of foot. I think she’s at her best going 1.5 and she’ll get that today. Not sure she’s good enough to beat War Like if she fires an A race and a little worried about the pace but we should get a square price and want to give her one more shot to prove she’s as good as I think.

Best Value: Race 1 - #10 A Knights Courage 15/1 - Although I think is probably bred more for synth than turf I’ve liked the of this colt and was waiting for Donk to switch surfaces. The horses has absolutely detested the kickback on dirt in my opinion. Not sure he’s quite good enough but can’t pass on a big price today.

Good luck.

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

Good call!

Wednesday picks.

Race 7 - #3 Portos, 10/1
Race 9 - #5 Sarah Harper, 6/1

Porto’s paid $5.30 to place. I didn’t see Race 9 but Sarah Harper did not finish very high.

$120.00 wagered
$116.30 returned

Hoping to get back into the green.

First bet: Race 6 - #4 Destiny Star, 4/1. The works on this horse have been phenomenal. Half sibling Kentucky Kiss broke maiden on the turf. I don’t love taking a short price in a 2YO race but Johnny V is aboard here and have confidence this one will be given a fair shot. Maybe she gets overlooked since Hamm is her trainer?

Second bet: Race 9 - #2 Virginia Joy, 8/1. How many times has Chad Brown won a graded stakes race on turf for us all to say, “Of course, Chad Brown. How’d I miss that one?” I don’t love the pace scenario for the huge favorite War Like Goddess. She is obviously the class of this field…but she’s a late runner who may get no pace to run at. While likely front runners Elegant Taste and Vergara offer some appeal (the latter, much more so), I don’t think either of them are good enough to win this. She gets a massive jockey upgrade. Her last two races had Dylan Davis and Manny Franco aboard but she will have Prat aboard here. I think she’ll get a better trip this time around as the stalker right behind the two mentioned above and should get first run at them.

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

Porto’s paid $5.30 to place. I didn’t see Race 9 but Sarah Harper did not finish very high.

$120.00 wagered
$116.30 returned

Hoping to get back into the green.

First bet: Race 6 - #4 Destiny Star, 4/1. The works on this horse have been phenomenal. Half sibling Kentucky Kiss broke maiden on the turf. I don’t love taking a short price in a 2YO race but Johnny V is aboard here and have confidence this one will be given a fair shot. Maybe she gets overlooked since Hamm is her trainer?

Second bet: Race 9 - #2 Virginia Joy, 8/1. How many times has Chad Brown won a graded stakes race on turf for us all to say, “Of course, Chad Brown. How’d I miss that one?” I don’t love the pace scenario for the huge favorite War Like Goddess. She is obviously the class of this field…but she’s a late runner who may get no pace to run at. While likely front runners Elegant Taste and Vergara offer some appeal (the latter, much more so), I don’t think either of them are good enough to win this. She gets a massive jockey upgrade. Her last two races had Dylan Davis and Manny Franco aboard but she will have Prat aboard here. I think she’ll get a better trip this time around as the stalker right behind the two mentioned above and should get first run at them.

Well, I suck.

$128.00 wagered
$116.30 returned

First bet: Race 8 - #8 Mysterious Night, 10/1. There are several very good horses in this race. While this one hasn’t been great in his last two outings, I keep going back to that September race at Woodbine last year. He looked effortless in winning that and my hope is Charles Appleby has righted the ship here. I’m willing to find out at 10/1.

Second bet: Race 7 - #7 Papilio, 5/1. She has had some troubled trips in her recent starts but always shows heart and toughness. Looking for her to put it all together today.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by moses

Well, I suck.

$128.00 wagered
$116.30 returned

First bet: Race 8 - #8 Mysterious Night, 10/1. There are several very good horses in this race. While this one hasn’t been great in his last two outings, I keep going back to that September race at Woodbine last year. He looked effortless in winning that and my hope is Charles Appleby has righted the ship here. I’m willing to find out at 10/1.

Second bet: Race 7 - #7 Papilio, 5/1. She has had some troubled trips in her recent starts but always shows heart and toughness. Looking for her to put it all together today.

Interesting stat on Appleby FWIW

from 2021-Current

He is 18 Starts 4 Wins from Jan through July

He is 24 Starts 13 Wins Aug through December

[moses]

Originally Posted by jms62

Interesting stat on Appleby FWIW

from 2021-Current

He is 18 Starts 4 Wins from Jan through July

He is 24 Starts 13 Wins Aug through December

Interesting. 4/18 isn’t even bad. 13/24 is incredible. I didn’t realize that.

I really wanted to like the Chad maiden breaker in that race…but I have a feeling that was a pretty bad maiden field so couldn’t do it.

[moses]

I think I’m headed down the shore tomorrow so going to throw in my Saturday picks as well.

First bet: Race 9 - #2 Program Trading, 7/2
Second bet: Race 10 - #2 Charge It, 5/1

If either get scratched:
Alternative 1: Race 2 - #8 Badlands Ruler, 20/1
Alternative 2: Race 6 - #3 Cogburn, 8/1

[moses]

Not for this challenge but I’m throwing some money on the 16 here in race 4.

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

Well, I suck.

$128.00 wagered
$116.30 returned

First bet: Race 8 - #8 Mysterious Night, 10/1. There are several very good horses in this race. While this one hasn’t been great in his last two outings, I keep going back to that September race at Woodbine last year. He looked effortless in winning that and my hope is Charles Appleby has righted the ship here. I’m willing to find out at 10/1.

Second bet: Race 7 - #7 Papilio, 5/1. She has had some troubled trips in her recent starts but always shows heart and toughness. Looking for her to put it all together today.

Just saw that the 8 is scratched. I’ll take the #4 Ocean Vision, 15/1 morning line.

[theguarantee]

Will update record in the morning and will follow dahoss lead and post an extra pick given the rainout but will hold that for tomorrow since I’ll be trackside and looking more closely at the races. For today:

Best Bet: Race 8 #6 Dorth Vader 6/1 - think she finds the right spot and distance today and is as likely a winner as any in here.

Best Value: Race 12: #2 Danzigwiththestars - always liked this one and seems to be spotted pretty well today. Usually fires big at Saratoga and I guess maybe is not good enough but should run big today.

Good luck

[moses]

Program Trading won to collect $14.00. Charge It flopped.

$140.00 wagered.
$130.30 returned.

I’ll have to look at tomorrows races late tonight or tomorrow morning. Maybe I’ll add a third horse to even out the cancelation on Friday. I’ll have to see how I like the card. My 2nd alternate Cogburn won at a pretty nice price.

Just horrible about Maple Leaf Mel. Absolutely horrible.

[moses]

Sunday.

Race 4 - #3 Whatlovelookslike, 9/2
Race 7 - #6 Spirit and Fire, 10/1
Race 8 - #4 Brightwork, 9/2

(Note: Spirit and Fire and Brightwork are half-sisters)

[theguarantee]

Best Value: Race 4 - #5 Myriskyaffair 9/2 - Like the way this one has tactical speed and finishes like she'll take to added ground (and already ran a decent third this route at BAQ).

Best Bet: Race 5 - # 1A Durkin's Call 3/1 - A little disappointed in the morning line but going to stick with it as I think this veteran is sitting on go today, gets to what I think is his best distance and I'm hoping the patient Dylan Davis changes tactics a bit today and drops out/makes one run. Think his closing kick has been dulled a bit sitting a bit closer to the pace going the wrong distances the last bunch of races.

Best Value #2: Race 3 - #1 Crowding Out 6/1 - Think this one is another getting back to the right distance today. Has nice, easy, turf sprint speed and I don't see a ton of pace signed on here. Went too fast two back, too far in the last...today's distance should hit her square between the eyes, sports an easy win at today's distance, track and class level and appears to be training best she has in a while in the leadup to today.

Good luck.

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

Sunday.

Race 4 - #3 Whatlovelookslike, 9/2
Race 7 - #6 Spirit and Fire, 10/1
Race 8 - #4 Brightwork, 9/2

(Note: Spirit and Fire and Brightwork are half-sisters)

I just noticed that Spirit and Fire is scratched. That kind of sucks because I liked and bet both Ozara and Burgee who won last race. But enough redboarding.

I’m going to pick a horse in race 6. The race looks loaded though I really don’t buy into the favorite the 4 horse. I like the works on the 1. The Mott 2 horse is supposed to be pretty good. The 5 has faced some tough horses. And I haven’t gotten to the Brown and Pletcher horses.

I’m going to take a shot on the 1 Empire Island who’s sitting at 6/1 right now. The horse looks very fit. Norm Casse/Santana hitting at a good rate. Giddy up.

[theguarantee]

Wednesday, 8/9:

Best Bet: Race 8 #7 Coppa Girl 9/2 - Looking to try to take on Raging Sea today and I think Coppa Girl is the one with the upside to do so. She learned to break last time and ran a hole in the wind proving she can now break, rate kindly and finish up. I guess there has to be some concern she really liked the track and the Ellis results were a bit wonky but I think there is some real talent here and everything Brad Cox is sending to Saratoga seems ever more live than usual this year.

Best Value: Race 9 #3 Know It All Audrey 8/1 - She'll be overlooked in this now small field and perhaps it's with good reason against these but I've been waiting for her to run back off that 7/20 race. She was in tight looking loaded the whole way around until things really went poorly and she had to steady very aggressively and lost all chance. She was then forced to circle the field very wide and still came with a big run for third behind a very sharp Mosienko and another Linda Rice runner who was white hot at the time. She galloped out very strong. I don't know if she's good enough in here but I have to give her a shot today off that trip at a square price.

Good luck.

[jms62]

LOL Great... My Will pays in the DBL were 18.80 and 31.00 and I get a 3.35 ALL payout... Why cancel the 5th when bets already made? Oh let me guess... If you cancel from the end NYRA gets their P5 dough. Ok... I'll shutup and bet now.