Two at Toga (2023)

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

Going to take a few big swings the next couple days.

Friday picks.

First bet: Race 1 - #9 Love That Bird, 20/1.
Second bet: Race 6 - #7 Asthros, 10/1.

Saturday picks.

First bet: Race 8 - #6 Dean Delivers, 8/1.
Second bet: Race 10 - #3 Hit Show, 6/1.

Well, I went with the wrong Ferraro as Love That Bird finished last (I think) but his stable mate gutted out a victory at 13/1. A tough miss for me as I liked both based on their workouts. But enough red boarding. I didn’t get to see the 6th race but it doesn’t look like Asthros did much.

$96.00 wagered
$111.00 returned

Clearly I wasn’t thinking clearly when I made the above picks so I’m going to mix it up a little (as much as I like Dean Delivers, I don’t really want to bet against Elite Power or Gunite.)

First bet: Race 3 - #6 Carpe’s Dream, 8/1. I’m not way against the likely favorite #2 Luna Warrior but he’s coming off his first win in 7 starts from the maiden claiming ranks. With Irad aboard, I suspect the #11 will draw a significant amount of interest as well. I don’t love either of those two horses so I started looking elsewhere. Carpe’s Dream will see a significant drop in class as he’s raced only allowance or stakes races since breaking his maiden back in December of 2021. He also gets a jockey upgrade with Lezcano. In my opinion, he needed class relief and is getting it. He’s got a major shot in this one.

Second bet: Race 10 - #3 Hit Show, 6/1. I keep going back to that Derby performance and I was really impressed with it. Saudi Crown is going to jump out to the front and Forte, with the addition of blinkers, may challenge him sooner than otherwise. Hit Show should get a perfect stalking spot behind those two and will get first run at them. Saez now aboard and have to imagine that’s an upgrade over Franco. Forte, Saudi Crown, and Angel of Empire will all take a lot of money so I’m thinking he gets overlooked and will be a nice price.

[theguarantee]

Best Bet: Race 7 #6 Drum Roll Please
Best Value: Race 10 #1 Disarm

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

Well, I went with the wrong Ferraro as Love That Bird finished last (I think) but his stable mate gutted out a victory at 13/1. A tough miss for me as I liked both based on their workouts. But enough red boarding. I didn’t get to see the 6th race but it doesn’t look like Asthros did much.

$96.00 wagered
$111.00 returned

Clearly I wasn’t thinking clearly when I made the above picks so I’m going to mix it up a little (as much as I like Dean Delivers, I don’t really want to bet against Elite Power or Gunite.)

First bet: Race 3 - #6 Carpe’s Dream, 8/1. I’m not way against the likely favorite #2 Luna Warrior but he’s coming off his first win in 7 starts from the maiden claiming ranks. With Irad aboard, I suspect the #11 will draw a significant amount of interest as well. I don’t love either of those two horses so I started looking elsewhere. Carpe’s Dream will see a significant drop in class as he’s raced only allowance or stakes races since breaking his maiden back in December of 2021. He also gets a jockey upgrade with Lezcano. In my opinion, he needed class relief and is getting it. He’s got a major shot in this one.

Second bet: Race 10 - #3 Hit Show, 6/1. I keep going back to that Derby performance and I was really impressed with it. Saudi Crown is going to jump out to the front and Forte, with the addition of blinkers, may challenge him sooner than otherwise. Hit Show should get a perfect stalking spot behind those two and will get first run at them. Saez now aboard and have to imagine that’s an upgrade over Franco. Forte, Saudi Crown, and Angel of Empire will all take a lot of money so I’m thinking he gets overlooked and will be a nice price.

Carpe’s Dream got boxed in a bit but had no explosiveness when they hit the stretch. Not sure where he finished but somewhere in the 4-7 range. Hit Show didn’t show up. Going into tomorrow with the risk of going into the red.

$104.00 wagered
$111.00 returned

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

Carpe’s Dream got boxed in a bit but had no explosiveness when they hit the stretch. Not sure where he finished but somewhere in the 4-7 range. Hit Show didn’t show up. Going into tomorrow with the risk of going into the red.

$104.00 wagered
$111.00 returned

I didn’t get a chance to look too closely at this card. But here are two horses I like:

Race 1 - #2 Golden Ghost, 6/1. I want to take a shot here with a horse that debuted in a stakes sprint race on dirt but clearly has pedigree for turf, particularly turf routes. She took money on debut and my guess is Casse thinks she’s got some talent but needs to figure out where she fits. Expecting that she’ll be above 6/1.

Race 3 - #8 Sedona Red, 8/1. With fairly obscure connections going up against the likes of Chad Brown and Todd Pletcher, expect this one to be a big price. But his most recent dirt performance should win this if he can translate it to turf. He’s one of the few 4 year olds in this race and I always give them extra long looks going against 3 year olds in turf routes. The dam has produced two turf winners. They started him out on turf and now send him back to the grass. He’s got a shot…and I suspect will be over the 8/1 morning line price.

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

I didn’t get a chance to look too closely at this card. But here are two horses I like:

Race 1 - #2 Golden Ghost, 6/1. I want to take a shot here with a horse that debuted in a stakes sprint race on dirt but clearly has pedigree for turf, particularly turf routes. She took money on debut and my guess is Casse thinks she’s got some talent but needs to figure out where she fits. Expecting that she’ll be above 6/1.

Race 3 - #8 Sedona Red, 8/1. With fairly obscure connections going up against the likes of Chad Brown and Todd Pletcher, expect this one to be a big price. But his most recent dirt performance should win this if he can translate it to turf. He’s one of the few 4 year olds in this race and I always give them extra long looks going against 3 year olds in turf routes. The dam has produced two turf winners. They started him out on turf and now send him back to the grass. He’s got a shot…and I suspect will be over the 8/1 morning line price.

Golden Ghost scratched and race 3 off the turf now. Switch to:

Race 6 - #4 Mugen, 7/2.
Race 9 - #9 Rebel’s Romance, 8/5.

Taking some shorter prices on horse I think are logical. Again, didn’t get a lot of time to look at this card so not going to try to be too clever.