Two at Toga (2023)

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

$48.00 wagered
$87.20 returned

Friday picks.

First bet: Race 8 - #2 Speed Bias, 3/1. I like this horse a lot and think 3/1 is a fair price on him. We’ll see if that holds. It will likely rain but doesn’t look like a wet track will bother him.

Second bet: Race 7 - #2 Big Night Out, 6/1. I thought this horse just never looked comfortable in his debut. Appears to have some talent and took some money last time out. Pedigree suggests he won’t mind a wet track.

Sidenote: There are too many Chads in the Lake George though #5 Revalita and newcomer #2 Surge capacity intrigue me most from his barn. Of the non-Chads, also intrigued by #10 Secret Money.

Speed Bias grabbed 2nd for $4.80. Big Night Out ran ok but finished something like 4th or 5th.

$56.00 wagered
$92.00 returned

Saturday. I don’t love this card. Preliminary picks:

First bet: Race 1 - #4 Noble Wave, 5/1

Second bet: Race 2 - #5 Ice Road, 4/1

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

Speed Bias grabbed 2nd for $4.80. Big Night Out ran ok but finished something like 4th or 5th.

$56.00 wagered
$92.00 returned

Saturday. I don’t love this card. Preliminary picks:

First bet: Race 1 - #4 Noble Wave, 5/1

Second bet: Race 2 - #5 Ice Road, 4/1

Ice Road is scratched.

Second bet is now #1 Southlawn (9/2) in Race 9.

I also looked at the card a little more and do like a potential bomb so I'm going to scrap Noble Wave as well.

First bet is now #2 Daily Grind (15/1) in race 7.

Some comments.

I think everyone will notice the price tag on Daily Grind, who sold for $1.35 million. Dam was a graded stakes winner who broke her maiden at 2 and Medaglia D'oro has sired his fair share of horses to win at 2. I don't know what the plan was for this horse but he was training at Churchill, had a bullet workout in July 5th and got shipped to Saratoga. I'm guessing Lukas was happy with it and thinks he's ready. A few of the horses in here look pretty good but I think this one is worth a shot at 15/1.

With Hoosier Philly scratching out, I think Southlawn will get a little bit easier of a pace [not sure the Shirer horse can really press her and remains to be seen if Sacred Wish will jump into the mix early (though curious about that turf workout on July 7th.)] Wet Paint and Gambling Girl aren't fast enough to take the lead here. Workouts have been very good. So I think she'll inherit a fairly easy pace and think she's good enough to hold on. And with Brad Cox and Todd Pletcher having the two likely favorites, she should fly a bit under the radar and be a solid price.

Good luck all.

[theguarantee]

Race 10) #9 A La Carte
Race 11) #8 Digital Future

[moses]

Well, Daily Grind wasn’t very good. Southlawn stumbled out of the gate and was basically finished as soon as the race started. Ah well. On to tomorrow.

[moses]

$64.00 wagered.
$92.00 returned.

Let’s hope for a good day today.

First bet: Race 3 - #2 Fontanafredda, 5/1.
Second bet: Race 6 - #4 Colonial Rose, 8/1.