Two at Toga (2023)

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

Both horses ran pretty well but neither had a shot at winning. Bowl of Cherries picked up 2nd place and $5.90 to save me from losing out for the day.

$24.00 wagered
$66.30 returned

Tomorrow looks like it will be very wet at Saratoga. Preliminary picks below:

First bet: Race 9 - #11 Joey Freshwater (MTO), 9/2.
Second bet: Race 8 - #2 Nakatomi, 5/2.

Well, should have stuck with the original picks as Nakatomi won. Joey Freshwater ran 2nd to collect $3.80.

$32.00 wagered
$70.10 returned

[moses]

Not sure how much I’ll be on the next few days so going to post now. Going for gold here.

Wednesday.

First bet: Race 7 - #6 Golden Rocket, 5/1. I’m very much against the morning line favorites in this race. And while that may prove to be foolish, I prefer to go with the class in this race, who I expect to be a nice price just based on the connections of Farro/Gomez. I’m even intrigued by ex-Clement trainee Classic Colors who I really love a couple years ago but who toiled away in dirt races in Charles Town for the first half of this year. Good to see her back on turf and she’s under Russell now with Franco aboard (3-3 ITM for Franco/Russell) so wouldn’t be shocked to see her win this either.

Second bet: Race 3 - #4 Golden Dagger, 8/1. This horse had a bad start in her debut, was wide throughout, and was just the best horse in that race. The runner up moved up to MSW where she ran 2nd in her next outing and broke her maiden in her 3rd race. I’m not sure why she was sent to the bench after her maiden win but Morey hits at 23% 90+ days away. Morey not a great 1st time turfer but dam has produced 4 turf winners to date. Ability to come from off the pace could be key here as there are several in here that seem to want the front.

[theguarantee]

Wagered: $32.00
Returned: $61.90

Best Bet: Race 9 #5 Gun Boat 9/2 - I liked the effort at Belmont last out off a long layoff. Clearly has had some issues but I've always thought this one had upside and I like to see pointing here off what I have to assume was a prep. She set the pace in a race where they came over the top on the outside late and I think she's very likely to turn the tables on likely favored Anna Karenine today.

Best Value: Race 7 #1 Classic Colors 8/1 - Mainly a connections play but I also just think this one clearly belongs on turf. Somewhat of a hunch but just guessing that Dubb/Russell aren't entering here if they don't think they had a legit chance. Not in love with the rail draw the way the turf has been playing so far but that could've easily changed over the past few days. Hopefully Manny can save some ground and make a big late run.

[maryhope]

Anybody know what is Steve's depaula play of day 🤔

[moses]

Originally Posted by maryhope

Anybody know what is Steve's depaula play of day 🤔

I’m not sure but you should play along today with my picks. I feel pretty good about them.

[theguarantee]

Will update records sometime after today's races but both of my picks yesterday were dreadful. Luckily I was also alive to the #11 in the late pick-4 in the last and took some extra 10/1 based on that crazy betting (sorry for the redboard).

Best Value: Race 8 - #2 Sister Annie 20/1 - There's a good bit of speed signed on here but going to take a chance that Kendrick can come through for me again today by getting ultra aggressive and hope the others think it's cheap sprinting speed/let her lope along and she forgets to stop today.

Best Value: Race 10 - #5 Red Butterfly - The debut was pretty solid, second start was strangled back needlessly and bumped hard when presumably about to make her move. Toss the dirt effort plus that preempted a move to the sideline so maybe something went wrong. Going 7F just too demanding off a long layoff. At the right class level, distance and surface today and actually has good gate speed to get early position.

[moses]

Originally Posted by theguarantee

Will update records sometime after today's races but both of my picks yesterday were dreadful. Luckily I was also alive to the #11 in the late pick-4 in the last and took some extra 10/1 based on that crazy betting (sorry for the redboard).

Best Value: Race 8 - #2 Sister Annie 20/1 - There's a good bit of speed signed on here but going to take a chance that Kendrick can come through for me again today by getting ultra aggressive and hope the others think it's cheap sprinting speed/let her lope along and she forgets to stop today.

Best Value: Race 10 - #5 Red Butterfly - The debut was pretty solid, second start was strangled back needlessly and bumped hard when presumably about to make her move. Toss the dirt effort plus that preempted a move to the sideline so maybe something went wrong. Going 7F just too demanding off a long layoff. At the right class level, distance and surface today and actually has good gate speed to get early position.

Good luck. I expect a bomb in race 8. I personally like Linny Kate but Sister Annie is capable. Good luck with her.

[theguarantee]

Wagered: $72.00
Returned: $79.60

Race 5: #12 Relate - 6/1 - Tough post but like this one second off the layoff finding the right level today.

Race 10: #10 Sharp Play Boy 15/1 - This is a pretty hungry field so went searching for a price. I like to ignore GP races when coming back to NY and this one lost all chance at the start/got no trip at all in the last. Switching to Handal and a bit of a flyer but expect a big improvement today regardless.

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

I’m not sure but you should play along today with my picks. I feel pretty good about them.

Not a great day but not a bad day either. Fontanafredda spotted them all a couple lengths at the start before running her way back into the race. She looked like a winner in late stretch but was run down to lose by a nose and paying $4.30 for 2nd. Colonial Rose got a great start, settled in, and made her move but just wasn’t good enough today. She paid $11.20 to place.

$72.00 wagered
$107.50 returned

[jms62]

Originally Posted by moses

Not sure how much I’ll be on the next few days so going to post now. Going for gold here.

Wednesday.

First bet: Race 7 - #6 Golden Rocket, 5/1. I’m very much against the morning line favorites in this race. And while that may prove to be foolish, I prefer to go with the class in this race, who I expect to be a nice price just based on the connections of Farro/Gomez. I’m even intrigued by ex-Clement trainee Classic Colors who I really love a couple years ago but who toiled away in dirt races in Charles Town for the first half of this year. Good to see her back on turf and she’s under Russell now with Franco aboard (3-3 ITM for Franco/Russell) so wouldn’t be shocked to see her win this either.

Second bet: Race 3 - #4 Golden Dagger, 8/1. This horse had a bad start in her debut, was wide throughout, and was just the best horse in that race. The runner up moved up to MSW where she ran 2nd in her next outing and broke her maiden in her 3rd race. I’m not sure why she was sent to the bench after her maiden win but Morey hits at 23% 90+ days away. Morey not a great 1st time turfer but dam has produced 4 turf winners to date. Ability to come from off the pace could be key here as there are several in here that seem to want the front.

Nice job with Golden Dagger.... Unfortunately that Dagger was thrust into my heart as you blew up my 7/2 double.

[moses]

Originally Posted by jms62

Nice job with Golden Dagger.... Unfortunately that Dagger was thrust into my heart as you blew up my 7/2 double.

Thanks and sorry about that.Actually like this horse Bertrille a little bit in the 6th.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by moses

Thanks and sorry about that.Actually like this horse Bertrille a little bit in the 6th.

Already on em....

[moses]

Originally Posted by jms62

Already on em....

If I’m not first, I’m last.

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

Well, should have stuck with the original picks as Nakatomi won. Joey Freshwater ran 2nd to collect $3.80.

$32.00 wagered
$70.10 returned

Golden Dagger ran a heck of a race. I was right to go against the ML favorites in race 7…but Golden Rocket was not good enough (maybe half credit for Classic Colors though?)

$40.00 wagered
$87.20 returned.

Preliminary Thursday picks.

Race 4 - #6 Greatest Love, 15/1
Race 6 - #8 Neom Beach 5/1

[theguarantee]

Classic Colors ran great, just missing. Gun Boat once again failed to finish up in the lane.

Wagered: $40.00
Returned: $73.70

Best Bet: Race 9 - #10 Chasing the Crown 9/2 - I originally wanted to get creative with some longshots in this race but the more I looked through it I just kept coming back to this one. Has been facing some serious competition and I think unless Ari Gold really jumps forward is the most likely winner at a price that should be OK

Best Value: Race 6 - #4 Lamorna 8/1 - Struggled coming up with much on this card so taking a bit of a stab here. I like the works and maybe this one will be overbet given the breeding but everything Bill Mott sends out right now seems live and there are plenty of others in here to take money based on connections in such that I'll take a stab at a square price.

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

Golden Dagger ran a heck of a race. I was right to go against the ML favorites in race 7…but Golden Rocket was not good enough (maybe half credit for Classic Colors though?)

$40.00 wagered
$87.20 returned.

Preliminary Thursday picks.

Race 4 - #6 Greatest Love, 15/1
Race 6 - #8 Neom Beach 5/1

Sticking with the two picks above. Am I crazy for picking a Chatterpaul horse? Maybe. But the horse is in good form, should have a pace advantage, and is going to be a huge price. Sign me up.

For my second pick, I was between Neom Beach and Catire Vizcaya in race 2…I’m playing Neom Beach on a hunch that Rosario is starting to get out of his slump and that Asmussen has been giving him some good horses lately. Plus the pedigree feels like this distance and surface fits. But if the 6 wins race 2, I’ll be frustrated.

[theguarantee]

^Agreed on Rosario. I think he's quietly riding very well at the meet so far. Good luck today.

[moses]

Originally Posted by theguarantee

^Agreed on Rosario. I think he's quietly riding very well at the meet so far. Good luck today.

Good luck to you too!

[moses]

$48.00 wagered
$87.20 returned

Friday picks.

First bet: Race 8 - #2 Speed Bias, 3/1. I like this horse a lot and think 3/1 is a fair price on him. We’ll see if that holds. It will likely rain but doesn’t look like a wet track will bother him.

Second bet: Race 7 - #2 Big Night Out, 6/1. I thought this horse just never looked comfortable in his debut. Appears to have some talent and took some money last time out. Pedigree suggests he won’t mind a wet track.

Sidenote: There are too many Chads in the Lake George though #5 Revalita and newcomer #2 Surge capacity intrigue me most from his barn. Of the non-Chads, also intrigued by #10 Secret Money.

[jms62]

I lose another one like the 6th I may need a new monitor