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#1
07-14-2023, 04:59 PM
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After Day 2.
$16.00 wagered. $60.40 returned. Day 3. First bet: Race 7 - #3 Bowl of Cherries, 6/1 ML. I think the pace will heat up here and allow Irad to work out a trip. Hoping the dirt form converts to the grass. Second bet: Race 9 - #4 Ice Chocolat, 20/1 ML. I thought he did not look comfortable early on in the Jaipur but did put in a nice effort in the stretch. I think he’ll like the mile distance here and gotta love the addition of Prat. This is a really tough field and he’s probably not good enough. But. At 20/1, I’ve made worse bets. 
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#2
07-15-2023, 12:48 PM
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Wine and Whiskey broke poorly, rushed up and had nothing late. Anna's Arabesque was OK and I thought was needlessly pulled off the pace but was probably second best anyway.
Bet: $16.00 Returned: $26.50 Saturday 7/15: Best Bet - Race 11: #1 Monet Never - Been waiting for this one to return off the last start. He's got good tactical speed and I thought had very subtle but less than ideal trips in his first two at Gulfstream. He again had a bit of a trip in the last but I'm moreso drawing a line through that event as something clearly went wrong. Blinkers come off today and hopefully that allows him to settle a bit better and finally finish a race off. Best Value - Race 6: #11 Waterville - Maybe seeing something that isn't there but I wonder if we can get her to show some real improvement today. Her races last year were fine but not exactly anything to write home about however I thought the best of them came on the Toga Inner and this time she's coming in with a race inbetween...a race that will likely have most jumping off but I'd contend was a subtle but horrible trip where nothing went right for her. She starts out chasing a blistering pace three wide...Manny eventually eases off and she doesn't lose a ton of ground but after being used a bit early she now finds herself near the back of the pack, then the 8 drops anchor early right in front of her without much room and Manny decides to pull the trigger early which also necessitates a wide move around the turn. It's quite possible she's just not very fast, but I think a series of minor things conspired against her last out and I want to give this one a final shot at what should be a square price. Good luck.
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#3
07-16-2023, 12:33 AM
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#4
07-15-2023, 06:30 PM
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$24.00 wagered $66.30 returned Tomorrow looks like it will be very wet at Saratoga. Preliminary picks below: First bet: Race 9 - #11 Joey Freshwater (MTO), 9/2. Second bet: Race 8 - #2 Nakatomi, 5/2.
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#5
07-16-2023, 12:36 PM
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First bet is now Race 5 where I want to take a stab with Antonio of Venice now out. I think you can make a case for a lot of these but I like #7 Ice the Kicker. Melanie Giddings has placed a few of these maiden horses well. The pedigree suggests this one will like a wet track AND he’s got a nice workout on a sloppy track AND I like Lezcano to factor in in a race like this. Second bet is now Race 9. I want to give #5 Two of a Kind a shot here. He’ll be a price and going to trust Leparoux to figure out when to make the move into what looks like it will be an absolutely scorching pace (though, sometimes these turf sprinters just never stop…so we’ll see if he can get it done.) if this gets taken off the turf, give me Joey Freshwater though.
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#6
07-16-2023, 01:49 PM
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Waterville improved as hoped but was no match for the other from the same barn...Prat, as dahoss mentioned, worked some real magic for me in the last with Monet Never. Gold Sweep cost me a fortune in the multis yesterday...
Wagered: $24.00 Returned: $54.60 Best Bet - Race 7: #1 Prove Worthy 9/2 - Maybe a fools errand betting on a slow horse for Irad, Pletcher and Repole but I'm going to bite on this one. I just think this one wants every bit of the distance, love the rail draw and trust Irad to get into a good rhythm and time out his move. The race two back looks much more competitive against several of these than the last but this horse could not have been a worse fit for the way Ellis is playing and the race played out just like that. I'm drawing a line through that one and figure there is still some upside here in a field that I'm not particularly scared of anyone else. Best Value - Race 9: #4 Dr. Oseran 8/1 - If things don't work out today I won't have to look much further than falling in love with slow horses...but in digging through this field I ultimately just decided I wanted to take a shot with a new face as I can't separate any of the more logical types. I think 5F turf figs at Gulfstream are iffy at best and at least he has that fig three back...but moreso I'm just hoping that this one will improve moving back north as I thought the debut at Belmont last summer was pretty OK and he clearly had no clue what he was doing, wandering about late. The last race he failed to break and while that would be a big concern here today at least they found out that he has some versatility...he made a wide move off the turn and was really motoring but just never really found enough space at any point in the stretch. Doesn't hurt that Prat takes the mount. Good luck everybody.
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#7
07-16-2023, 03:11 PM
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With the Quick Call coming off the turf - it appears Dr. Oseran hasn't scatched, though I don't have a clue why not...so I will switch my pick:
9-#9 Uncashed - I have no idea what to expect for a price and the presence of Irad certainly won't help but there's actually a lot of good dirt form left in this race along with two MTO's so on a card that I didn't have a lot of strong opinions I'll take a shorter price that I think is very likely to win. I just think Uncashed is faster than these and I have to think Larry Rivelli figured he'd take a shot on turf with the ultimate hope it could come off and get a shot in a field like this.
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#8
07-16-2023, 06:02 PM
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$32.00 wagered $70.10 returned
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#9
07-17-2023, 04:57 PM
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Not sure how much I’ll be on the next few days so going to post now. Going for gold here.
Wednesday. First bet: Race 7 - #6 Golden Rocket, 5/1. I’m very much against the morning line favorites in this race. And while that may prove to be foolish, I prefer to go with the class in this race, who I expect to be a nice price just based on the connections of Farro/Gomez. I’m even intrigued by ex-Clement trainee Classic Colors who I really love a couple years ago but who toiled away in dirt races in Charles Town for the first half of this year. Good to see her back on turf and she’s under Russell now with Franco aboard (3-3 ITM for Franco/Russell) so wouldn’t be shocked to see her win this either. Second bet: Race 3 - #4 Golden Dagger, 8/1. This horse had a bad start in her debut, was wide throughout, and was just the best horse in that race. The runner up moved up to MSW where she ran 2nd in her next outing and broke her maiden in her 3rd race. I’m not sure why she was sent to the bench after her maiden win but Morey hits at 23% 90+ days away. Morey not a great 1st time turfer but dam has produced 4 turf winners to date. Ability to come from off the pace could be key here as there are several in here that seem to want the front.
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#10
07-19-2023, 12:47 PM
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Wagered: $32.00
Returned: $61.90 Best Bet: Race 9 #5 Gun Boat 9/2 - I liked the effort at Belmont last out off a long layoff. Clearly has had some issues but I've always thought this one had upside and I like to see pointing here off what I have to assume was a prep. She set the pace in a race where they came over the top on the outside late and I think she's very likely to turn the tables on likely favored Anna Karenine today. Best Value: Race 7 #1 Classic Colors 8/1 - Mainly a connections play but I also just think this one clearly belongs on turf. Somewhat of a hunch but just guessing that Dubb/Russell aren't entering here if they don't think they had a legit chance. Not in love with the rail draw the way the turf has been playing so far but that could've easily changed over the past few days. Hopefully Manny can save some ground and make a big late run.
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#13
07-19-2023, 02:35 PM
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__________________
GOP- Protecting Pedophiles since 2025
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#14
07-19-2023, 03:59 PM
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#16
07-19-2023, 05:06 PM
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$40.00 wagered $87.20 returned. Preliminary Thursday picks. Race 4 - #6 Greatest Love, 15/1 Race 6 - #8 Neom Beach 5/1
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#17
07-20-2023, 01:04 PM
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Classic Colors ran great, just missing. Gun Boat once again failed to finish up in the lane.
Wagered: $40.00 Returned: $73.70 Best Bet: Race 9 - #10 Chasing the Crown 9/2 - I originally wanted to get creative with some longshots in this race but the more I looked through it I just kept coming back to this one. Has been facing some serious competition and I think unless Ari Gold really jumps forward is the most likely winner at a price that should be OK Best Value: Race 6 - #4 Lamorna 8/1 - Struggled coming up with much on this card so taking a bit of a stab here. I like the works and maybe this one will be overbet given the breeding but everything Bill Mott sends out right now seems live and there are plenty of others in here to take money based on connections in such that I'll take a stab at a square price.
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#18
07-20-2023, 01:10 PM
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For my second pick, I was between Neom Beach and Catire Vizcaya in race 2…I’m playing Neom Beach on a hunch that Rosario is starting to get out of his slump and that Asmussen has been giving him some good horses lately. Plus the pedigree feels like this distance and surface fits. But if the 6 wins race 2, I’ll be frustrated.
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#19
07-20-2023, 01:12 PM
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^Agreed on Rosario. I think he's quietly riding very well at the meet so far. Good luck today.
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Already on em....
Hybrid Mode
