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#1
07-22-2022, 02:11 PM
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#2
07-22-2022, 03:35 PM
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Saturday picks
Best bet: Race 10 - #5 Tobys Heart 8/1 ML, Lynch/Santana. I am a sucker for this horse but I really do think she has a lot of talent and the pace here should be very fast, allowing her to make a run at them late. Gaffalione is on the favorite and I've got no knock against her other than the likely pace scenario (which maybe doesn't matter in turf sprints quite as much) but he has been ice cold at Saratoga so far...so I'll take a shot with a horse that I've liked for a long time. Best value: Race 11 - #5 Seaver 20/1 ML, Hills/Cardenas. A few things to note here. I don't dislike horses like Catch That Party or even Front Man, both coming out of the same race but I don't see much pace in this race. While I don't necessarily trust Luis Cardenas to give this horse the perfect ride and I don't love betting 3YOs against older in turf routes, I feel this horse is worth a shot as neither Summer Front or Queen Frostine scream "sprinter" to me and this horse may actually like the added ground. The talent on turf seems to be there as he's looked pretty good in his last two turf starts. It's a big question mark and a challenge for him, but I think he may be up to it.
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#3
07-23-2022, 06:27 PM
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After Day 8. Total wagered: $64.00 Total returned: $57.50 Record 16 2-4-2
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#4
07-24-2022, 02:30 PM
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Best bet - Race 10 - 9 Funding Gap 5/1
Best value - Race 9 - 6 Caironi 12/1
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#7
07-27-2022, 12:13 PM
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Best Bet - Race 6: 1 Gambling Girl 7/2 - Won’t be surprised if we get more or less than the morning line in here. I thought the debut was an educational trip this one will move forward off of. Got some dirt, was ridden hard for a long while and seemed to find stride late. Should appreciate another furlong today.
Best Value - Race 10: 7 Glitter Up 10/1: With plenty of flashier pedigrees and connections I just think she’s going to offer some value in here. Might seem (or be) like not the winning type given 3 seconds in 4 starts but she has speed, worked lights out since the last and while overlooked should be dangerous today at a nice price. Good luck - ps nice picking of late Moses, hopefully that doesn’t jinx you today.
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#11
07-23-2022, 06:46 AM
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The picks yesterday were not good. Continues to be feast or famine.
Saturday, 7/23 Wagered: $56.00 Returned: $84.30 Didn't find any real intriguing longshots at the Spa today... Best Bet - Race 7: 9 Royal Dancer 4/1 Speedball shortens up today which I usually don't necessarily like on turf as much as dirt but the last couple efforts make her very tough in here to me. In particular last out where she ran the rest of the speeds into the ground (check their beyer patterns) and really fought on gamely at a tough distance against Dream Central and Robyn and Eli. I know the latter disappointed since but DC came back running and the R&E race is too bad to be true so thinking she's just totally lost form or something went wrong. I think she's just better than those who have had turf tries in here so if Tough Street doesn't really take to the grass I think she'll prevail. Best Value - Race 10: 3 Star Devine 9/2 Seems a notch below the best in here perhaps but lightly raced with upside and love the tactical speed which should ensure a good trip sitting just behind what should be a solid pace (I know). Needs to find a little more in the lane but think she can, especially on the cutback to 5.5 where I thought her return off a long layoff at Keeneland in April was excellent. Hoping third off the bench she's ready for a move forward today. Good luck
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#12
07-30-2022, 01:52 PM
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Saturday, 7/30
Best Bet - Race 9: 2 Epicenter 3/2 I never usually take such a small price but I think with the presence of both of the Chad runners that this is one of those rare occasions that the horse is still an overlay. I've just always thought he is the class of this bunch and I believe the Preakness a lot of different things conspired against him. Fully expect him to have enjoyed the freshening and get back to proving that he's the best of these today. Appears to be training like he's back to his A game. Best Value - Race 10: 10 Colosseo 6/1 Obviously this is a total guess but I want to see Capensis do it again today especially given the post. So I started looking and kept poking holes in everyone else. Colosseo led St Mark's Basilica last year and was only beaten under two lengths. So we know there is some ability there. Why this horse is now with Wayne Catalano, what happened after that start or why they targeted this race at Saratoga. I'm going to take the presence of lasix and Rosario today as a positive though...kind of a total guess but feels like a decent spot for one...especially as this card today didn't do a ton for me as most races I either liked the favorites or had no clue. Good luck.
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#14
07-31-2022, 01:04 PM
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Sunday, July 31st
Best Bet - Race 5: 9 Baby Blythe 9/2 Best Value - Race 10: 7 Sharp Sensation 6/1
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#15
08-03-2022, 10:18 AM
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After Day 14.
Total wagered: $112.00 Total returned: $93.30 I've whiffed in my last couple races. I didn't have much time to look at the PPs last week and it showed. Kicking myself for not picking Gunite as I really hated the favorite in that race and ended up betting Gunite...but it happens. I was a bit preoccupied. Hopefully I can rebound and pick a few winners this week. Best bet: Race 7 - #3 - Tiergan 8/5 ML, Giangiulio/I.Ortiz. I guess we will see what price Tiergan goes off at. With Irad aboard, I'm not optimistic but I'll take 8/5 as I think he's got a very strong chance to win this. I may look a little closer at the card in the next hour or two and see if there is a better price to put here...but if not, I'll roll with Tiergan. Best value: Race 5 - #4 Triumphant Return 10/1 ML, Barker/Castellano. Castellano has been hot so I've been taking a closer look at all of his mounts. This one interests me quite a bit as the works are solid, the pedigree screams turf to me, and the winner from his start here last year went on to win the Swale earlier this year. I'm not going to count that race much against him and if he's 10/1 or above, why not? Sosua Summer for Mott hasn't won in 8 tries and his only time sprinting lost a lot of ground in the stretch. Of course, the winner of that race went on to win 4 consecutive stakes races including the Quick Call two weeks ago. The runner up won next time out and followed it up with an allowance win. But still, he's not for me. Java Buzz draws Prat again and may be the horse to beat...but I just don't like him at a short price.
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#17
08-03-2022, 12:05 PM
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Race 9 - #5 Movie Moxy 12/1 ML, Weaver/J.Ortiz. I don't think this horse was running the right races. She was in dirt sprints when I think she is a router. Her lone try around two turns, she was put away by two pretty nice horses in Spice is Nice and Market Rumor. What impressed me that day is that Maedean looked like she was going to swallow Movie Moxy up in the stretch but Movie Moxy fought to hold on for show. After several dirt sprints, she now moves back to a route, this time on the grass. It'll be her first time on the grass so that's a big question mark. Physically, she looks like a turf router to me -- but I'm no expert so take that with a grain of salt. Her pedigree suggests she might like turf, being a Street Sense filly out of a Bernardini mare. The reason I initially didn't land on her is that the #1 Rocky Sky does seem imposing as she had a nightmare trip last time out and still ran fairly well, and she's raced against much tougher than the ones in here. I generally won't bet against a horse like her...but I could easily see the entry going off at 2/5 and I'm willing to go against her at that price.
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