Two at Toga (2022)

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

I haven't gotten a chance to look into these races quite as much as I'd like...but I'm not sure how busy I'm going to be over the next two days so I'm going to post my initial thoughts and may tweak them later on.

After Day 2
Record: 4 1-1-1
Total wagered: $16.00
Total returned: $20.00

Sunday, July 17

Best Bet: Race 8 #4 Nobals 9/2 ML, Rivelli/I.Ortiz. I love the early speed in these turf sprints and I think Nobals is the fastest of the fast here. The main contender, Big Invasion, draws the outside post and I'm not sure how much I like him to get an easy trip. We'll see...but I'll be betting on the speed and hoping Irad is able to hold on down the stretch.

Best Value: Race 7 #11 Classic Lynne 6/1 ML, Sharp/Gaffalione. I'm not sure what went into the decision to put her in a stakes race on dirt but she's been off the track since then and now returns for her 3 year old debut on what I think is her preferred surface and distance. If you go two back, she showed some professionalism in her maiden win and defeated Russiarussiarussia that day fairly convincingly. She's a big, strong looking horse with a nice stride that, if she improves at all, is the horse to beat out of this bunch. Her works look good. No reason to think she isn't ready to fire.

After Day 3. $24.00 wagered, $20.00 returned.

Classic Lynn is scratched. Going to go with Oak Loves a Fight in race 10 instead.

[theguarantee]

Thanks everyone, wish I wasn't so convinced Reinvestment Risk was a single needing no backups and wasn't so against Credit Event or it could've been a monster of a day, needless to say still had an awesome day for the bankroll. Onto today...

Sunday, 7/17
Best Bet - Race 9 - 1 Supremacy 5/1 - Going to try to get Brad Cox home in the penultimate race of the day again here...I know that the last figure jumps off the page and one of my biggest handicapping strategies is usually to play against horses I think have thrown an inflated fig they will be bet on today...however, in this case this horse just ran far too well to ignore in the last. Sound Money can obviously win but I've never been his biggest fan. I tried to make a case for a bunch but I kept coming back to the 1 who popped a 92 going back to last May and as a 4yo I have a feeling is just improving and going really well for Brad Cox right now. Should be a decent enough price to find out.

Best Value - Race 4 - 2 Locally Owned 10/1 - A bit of a stab here as he's been really bad in his last two but wondering if cutting back to 1 1/8th will help right the ship. Dylan has ridden a few of these in here and while I don't want to play a jockey guessing game (and I'm guessing it wasn't fully his choice) but at least he is familiar with a few of these. The real reason I like him however is I just wonder how much some of the others in here want to go this far. To me, he's the one horse that I feel will be finishing with energy and at the expected price I think is worth a shot that maybe he can pick them all up late.

Good luck.

[moses]

Originally Posted by theguarantee

Thanks everyone, wish I wasn't so convinced Reinvestment Risk was a single needing no backups and wasn't so against Credit Event or it could've been a monster of a day, needless to say still had an awesome day for the bankroll. Onto today...

Sunday, 7/17
Best Bet - Race 9 - 1 Supremacy 5/1 - Going to try to get Brad Cox home in the penultimate race of the day again here...I know that the last figure jumps off the page and one of my biggest handicapping strategies is usually to play against horses I think have thrown an inflated fig they will be bet on today...however, in this case this horse just ran far too well to ignore in the last. Sound Money can obviously win but I've never been his biggest fan. I tried to make a case for a bunch but I kept coming back to the 1 who popped a 92 going back to last May and as a 4yo I have a feeling is just improving and going really well for Brad Cox right now. Should be a decent enough price to find out.

Best Value - Race 4 - 2 Locally Owned 10/1 - A bit of a stab here as he's been really bad in his last two but wondering if cutting back to 1 1/8th will help right the ship. Dylan has ridden a few of these in here and while I don't want to play a jockey guessing game (and I'm guessing it wasn't fully his choice) but at least he is familiar with a few of these. The real reason I like him however is I just wonder how much some of the others in here want to go this far. To me, he's the one horse that I feel will be finishing with energy and at the expected price I think is worth a shot that maybe he can pick them all up late.

Good luck.

Good luck. I like your best best. Not sure if that’s a good thing or bad thing right now.

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

After Day 3. $24.00 wagered, $20.00 returned.

Classic Lynn is scratched. Going to go with Oak Loves a Fight in race 10 instead.

Nobals was just a bad pick. Did not get out to the lead as I expected, hit some traffic and maybe a bump, and then was done.

Oak Loves a Fight finished strong to get place but the favorite there was much the best. She paid $8.10 to place to give me a positive return for the day.

After Day 4.
Wagered: $32.00
Returned: $28.10
Record: 8 1-2-1

Some thoughts about yesterday. Neither of my picks hit the board. But I think I was right to bet against the favorite in those races. I just didn’t find the right horses to plug in. The 50 cent trifecta in those races yesterday paid $1267 and $262. With luck, I will hit a few of those races where there is a weak favorite.

[moses]

I struggled a bit with this card. One horse that I really like is Home For Christmas, who runs in race 4...but the inner turf has not been kind to early speed and I'm not sure if she can rate at all. At a 4/1 ML, I probably would have made her my best bet. But instead, I'm looking elsewhere for now.

Wednesday, July 20

Best bet: Race 8 - Mischievous Diane 4/1, Handal/Davis. Ray Handal always seems to bring a few really good horses up to Saratoga. In this case, Mischievous Diane has just looked better with each start. Her only losses came last year as a two year old, one of those in her debut and one to MGSW Kathleen O. She beat older horses last time out, seems to be improving, and is ready for a bigger challenge here.

Best value: Race 2 - Holiday Jazz 5/1, Duggan/Carmouche. Carmouche hasn't won for me yet...but I have a feeling the price on this horse could float up above the 5/1 morning line as I expect a lot of money to come in on Mariah's Fortune (Cox/Saez) and Evoking (Thomas/Irad). I like the addition of blinkers here and with an aggressive ride from Carmouche, I see this horse at least capable of wiring the field here. I'm not particularly crazy about the two favorites. Mariah's Fortune looks like the horse to beat but her best races came around two turns and I'm not sure if she'll like the cutback or not. Evoking enters the race off a 14-month layoff and her big win came in the slop, not to mention her works don't look especially great. Both are worth taking a shot against, imo. Holiday Jazz has shown a little promise in her maiden breaker and finished one length back of Chloe Rose two back (who won a starter allowance race here last week.)

A few other horses that I like at a price are: Rent Control (8/1) in race 3, Callie's Passion (6/1) in race 5, and I'm still interested in Classic Lynne (4/1) who runs in race 9 but curious about why she was scratched by the stewards over the weekend.

Good luck all.

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

I struggled a bit with this card. One horse that I really like is Home For Christmas, who runs in race 4...but the inner turf has not been kind to early speed and I'm not sure if she can rate at all. At a 4/1 ML, I probably would have made her my best bet. But instead, I'm looking elsewhere for now.

Wednesday, July 20

Best bet: Race 8 - Mischievous Diane 4/1, Handal/Davis. Ray Handal always seems to bring a few really good horses up to Saratoga. In this case, Mischievous Diane has just looked better with each start. Her only losses came last year as a two year old, one of those in her debut and one to MGSW Kathleen O. She beat older horses last time out, seems to be improving, and is ready for a bigger challenge here.

Best value: Race 2 - Holiday Jazz 5/1, Duggan/Carmouche. Carmouche hasn't won for me yet...but I have a feeling the price on this horse could float up above the 5/1 morning line as I expect a lot of money to come in on Mariah's Fortune (Cox/Saez) and Evoking (Thomas/Irad). I like the addition of blinkers here and with an aggressive ride from Carmouche, I see this horse at least capable of wiring the field here. I'm not particularly crazy about the two favorites. Mariah's Fortune looks like the horse to beat but her best races came around two turns and I'm not sure if she'll like the cutback or not. Evoking enters the race off a 14-month layoff and her big win came in the slop, not to mention her works don't look especially great. Both are worth taking a shot against, imo. Holiday Jazz has shown a little promise in her maiden breaker and finished one length back of Chloe Rose two back (who won a starter allowance race here last week.)

A few other horses that I like at a price are: Rent Control (8/1) in race 3, Callie's Passion (6/1) in race 5, and I'm still interested in Classic Lynne (4/1) who runs in race 9 but curious about why she was scratched by the stewards over the weekend.

Good luck all.

Given it some thought and I’m going to swap my best bet from Mischievous Diane to #4 Classic Lynne in Race 9. One thing I try to do when picking these horses is identify favorites that I don’t like and then bet against them. In Race 8, although I like Mischievous Diane, I have nothing against the favorite Smash Ticket. MD is also a 3YO going against older here. I’ll be betting her, but I think Classic Lynne is a better bet. I don’t particularly like the two favorites in race 9 and Classic Lynne should win this if she takes any step forward from last year. Her works have been good and I’m not worried about Joe Sharp coming off the layoff. Basically all the reasons I liked her last week.

[theguarantee]

I'll update my totals after the races today. First card of the meet where not much jumped out at me.

Best Bet - Race 4: 6 Instinctive 5/2
Won't be surprised at any price in here but hoping some of the higher profile connections get bet and maybe she floats up a bit (though probably not as she seems popular today). I like the cutback to a mile and it seems like she should get a nice setup today.

Best Value - Race 9: 4 Classic Lynne 4/1
Let's see if we can get this one home today as a double barrel selection. I think we saw a lot of the same things in here. She's a Mia can win but is the type I want to be against. Lisa's Vision is also dangerous but I'm not in love with. I tried to make a case for Solib and Dufresne but ultimately couldn't quite get there with either. Classic Lynne, in her last turf start impressed me… fought with Luis a little early but then settled and got a perfect trip but really spurted home nicely when asked. Light on figs and a long layoff but the figs came as a 2yo in the fall so hoping she’s moved forward while off and feels like the one with some upside in here you want. We've seen how dangerous Joe Sharp is with these types.

Good luck.

[theguarantee]

Feat or famine so far.
Meet totals
$40 wagered
$59.80

Thursday, 7/21 - travelling today and again not thrilled with the card.

Best Bet - Race 2: 4 No Burn 3/1
Hoping Dylan can ration out his speed today and get the distance. Second choice on the ML but I think might drift up if one or both of the 1 or 6 take money as I suspect they will.

Best Value - Race 6: 8 Jeremy's Jet 8/1
Guessing this one won't be too fancied given four attempts already but I like the experience. In his last he put away an odds on horse and just got mowed down late by a horse coming from way out of it. I thought that effort was pretty nice. Hasn't quite lasted going shorter but hoping maybe can get away a little easier with the added ground and last today.

[moses]

Boy, my picks were absolutely terrible yesterday. Holiday Jazz finished a distant 3rd and Classic Lynne finished a disappointing 4th. Going with two 2YO races today as I'm not all that crazy about the card. I wanted to talk myself into Timbuktu or Practice Squad to upset Dakota Gold...but I just think that horse is very, very good and don't want to bet against him today.

After Day 5.
Wagered: $40.00
Returned: $28.10
Record: 10 1-2-2

Best bet: Race 4 - #5 V Mart 6/1 ML, Avila/Olivero. I've generally tried to avoid 2YOs but there are a number of things that I like about this horse. First, the works are very good. Second, there is no clear standout in the race among the horses who have started already. Run Poppy, Smart Prize, and Clear the Deck have run well but none so great that the race is a foregone conclusion. This horse comes from the same owner/trainer combo as King Guillermo. King Guillermo was named after owner Victor Martinez's father. This one is named after Victor Martinez himself. Avila could has easily kept this horse at Monmouth for a maiden race on Saturday but ships him up to Saratoga instead. This signals to me -- this horse is live and I'll be very happy if we can get 6/1 on him.

Best value: Race 10 - #8 Determined Jester 15/1 ML, Schoenthal/McCarthy. This one is a bit of a stab...but check the price tag on this filly last September. Her works are all on dirt and not anything special but she should like the grass and note she is a 1/2 to Bodecream (winner of the Texas Turf Mile and in the money in a couple of graded stakes races on the turf) and to the stakes placed Califante (IRE). Her dam, Call Mariah, was unraced but is a 1/2 to Daredevil, Albertus Maximus, and Chasethegold. Chasethegold was 2nd in the G3 Ken Maddy Stakes (turf) at Santa Anita and produced Goldenrod runner up Goldrushgirl and turf winner Cayala (who later produced stakes winning Provocateur, last seen finishing 3rd behind Jack Christopher in the Woody Stephens.) Actually, you may not have seen that finish as Provocateur was 12 lengths back...but the point being - this horse is 15/1 and has a pretty nice pedigree. There are a couple other horses in this race with interesting pedigree connections (American Rockette, Strut) and some horses with more successful connections (Sugar Mamas Cakery, Factor That, Margaret Burbidge, Georgees Spirit), but I've talked myself into taking a shot on Determined Jester.

[moses]

Originally Posted by theguarantee

Feat or famine so far.
Meet totals
$40 wagered
$59.80

Thursday, 7/21 - travelling today and again not thrilled with the card.

Best Bet - Race 2: 4 No Burn 3/1
Hoping Dylan can ration out his speed today and get the distance. Second choice on the ML but I think might drift up if one or both of the 1 or 6 take money as I suspect they will.

Best Value - Race 6: 8 Jeremy's Jet 8/1
Guessing this one won't be too fancied given four attempts already but I like the experience. In his last he put away an odds on horse and just got mowed down late by a horse coming from way out of it. I thought that effort was pretty nice. Hasn't quite lasted going shorter but hoping maybe can get away a little easier with the added ground and last today.

Nice call on No Burn.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by theguarantee

Feat or famine so far.
Meet totals
$40 wagered
$59.80

Thursday, 7/21 - travelling today and again not thrilled with the card.

Best Bet - Race 2: 4 No Burn 3/1
Hoping Dylan can ration out his speed today and get the distance. Second choice on the ML but I think might drift up if one or both of the 1 or 6 take money as I suspect they will.

Best Value - Race 6: 8 Jeremy's Jet 8/1
Guessing this one won't be too fancied given four attempts already but I like the experience. In his last he put away an odds on horse and just got mowed down late by a horse coming from way out of it. I thought that effort was pretty nice. Hasn't quite lasted going shorter but hoping maybe can get away a little easier with the added ground and last today.

Nice job!

2-1 on Jeremy's Jet?