Two at Toga (2022)

[theguarantee]

Glad to see you posting Moses. I think Dahoss deserves his own thread (if he chooses) but hope you’ll let me tag on here to avoid too much clutter in the forum.

I think last year I posted about 116 worth of wagers that returned around 132 but I missed a bunch of days. My goal this year is to post everyday and post a profit. Pretty sure I already know my plays for tomorrow but have a few more replays to watch and will be back in the morning. I will say I do think Canisy is interesting...won’t be my pick but I totally get it. That said I think the 12 Linda’s Gift is a little interesting at a much bigger price...and wondering if the 13 draws in and presumably Prat jumps on there maybe Lezcano climbs back aboard and drifts up from the 10/1 ML? I get that Canisy found trouble and ran right past her in the last but Linda was rank early and Jose totally strangled. Slow pace, still ran faster than the 1 who I think gets bet off that trip....

[moses]

Going to post my early picks for Friday and Saturday today. I'll have to check back on scratches. It looks like my picks for opening day are set to go. Here are the picks for Friday.

Friday, July 15

Best Bet: Race 7 - #6 I Am the Cash Man 8/1 ML, Progno/Worrie. Coming from the Finger Lakes, I fully expect this horse to get overlooked but he's run fairly well in his most recent two starts and I think may have a pace/style advantage in a race that doesn't seem to have much early speed. I respect a horse like American Pure who has some competitive figures heading into the race, good workouts, and is likely an improving 3 year old...not to mention the connections and what seems like quite a bit of class relief here from at least his last start. But, I don't think he or any of the other likely favorites tower over anyone and this seems like a race where it wouldn't be shocking to see a longshot steal it.

Best Value: Race 9 - #12 Sanctuary City 20/1 ML, Ferraro/Carmouche. I've lost a lot of money banking on turf races to have an honest pace only for the horses to jog around the track. But...I think there is enough pace presence here not to worry about that. There should be some decently fast fractions set early. That sets up one of the favorites Set Piece...but also sets up a horse like Sanctuary City, who has shown a nice closing kick at times, though not necessarily consistently. I don't love Carmouche aboard or totally trust him to work out a great trip...but the horse is 20/1 on the morning line, definitely has some talent, and I think will get the pace setup. I'm against Mira Mission here and will probably combo Sanctuary City with some horses like Set Piece, Atone, Public Sector, and Wolfie's Dynaghost. I haven't figured that out yet.