Two at Toga (2022)

[moses]

After Day 6.
Wagered: $48.00
Returned: $41.30
Record: 10 2-2-2

Posting my Friday picks now.

Best bet: Race 4 - #3 Miss Bonnie T 6/1 ML, Antonacci/Prat. I'm not sure how much pace is signed on here and this horse, at times, has shown some early pace ability and blinkers are added. From Cardenas to Prat, this is a huge upgrade at jockey, especially on turf. Her best performances put her in contention here and showing some confidence here in Prat to be able to work out the perfect trip for her. I think Beachfront Bid and I'm Glad will be heavily bet so looking to get a nice price on this one.

Best value: Race 2 - #2 Clubbing 6/1 ML, McGaughey/McCarthy. This 4 year old gelding is a full sibling to Passing Out, a 3-time winner on turf at a mile and 3rd place finisher in the Beaugay in 2020. He is a Stuart Janney / Phipps homebred who looked alright in the mud last time out but who I suspect much prefers the grass. Sired by Orb, Clubbing is a big, strapping horse with a nice long stride so I suspect he will do well in turf routes. The other thing of note for me - the Chad Brown duo seems quite a bit overrated at even money. I'm not sure how good the unraced Indemnify is but Growth Capital has come up short three times now. Fort Ticonderoga, who beat Growth Capital last time out, came back to finish 8th in an allowance race last week. I'm just not sure how good Growth Capital is and want no parts of him at even money.



Edit -- Removed Tyrannosaurus Rex in race 6 as best value and switched to Clubbing in race 2.

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

After Day 6.
Wagered: $48.00
Returned: $41.30
Record: 10 2-2-2

Posting my Friday picks now.

Best bet: Race 4 - #3 Miss Bonnie T 6/1 ML, Antonacci/Prat. I'm not sure how much pace is signed on here and this horse, at times, has shown some early pace ability and blinkers are added. From Cardenas to Prat, this is a huge upgrade at jockey, especially on turf. Her best performances put her in contention here and showing some confidence here in Prat to be able to work out the perfect trip for her. I think Beachfront Bid and I'm Glad will be heavily bet so looking to get a nice price on this one.

Best value: Race 2 - #2 Clubbing 6/1 ML, McGaughey/McCarthy. This 4 year old gelding is a full sibling to Passing Out, a 3-time winner on turf at a mile and 3rd place finisher in the Beaugay in 2020. He is a Stuart Janney / Phipps homebred who looked alright in the mud last time out but who I suspect much prefers the grass. Sired by Orb, Clubbing is a big, strapping horse with a nice long stride so I suspect he will do well in turf routes. The other thing of note for me - the Chad Brown duo seems quite a bit overrated at even money. I'm not sure how good the unraced Indemnify is but Growth Capital has come up short three times now. Fort Ticonderoga, who beat Growth Capital last time out, came back to finish 8th in an allowance race last week. I'm just not sure how good Growth Capital is and want no parts of him at even money.



Edit -- Removed Tyrannosaurus Rex in race 6 as best value and switched to Clubbing in race 2.

Well I’ll be damned. Didn’t dislike the 2 in race 4 either but thought the 3 was better. And didn’t like Samuel aboard. Ah well. Redboard complete.

After day 7:
Wagered: $56.00
Returned:$44.30
Record 14 2-3-2

Going to hopefully post Saturday and Sunday picks this afternoon.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by moses

Well I’ll be damned. Didn’t dislike the 2 in race 4 either but thought the 3 was better. And didn’t like Samuel aboard. Ah well. Redboard complete.

After day 7:
Wagered: $56.00
Returned:$44.30
Record 14 2-3-2

Going to hopefully post Saturday and Sunday picks this afternoon.

I flirted with using Rhombique as my longshot for today but chickened out. Now the redboard is really complete

[moses]

Saturday picks

Best bet: Race 10 - #5 Tobys Heart 8/1 ML, Lynch/Santana. I am a sucker for this horse but I really do think she has a lot of talent and the pace here should be very fast, allowing her to make a run at them late. Gaffalione is on the favorite and I've got no knock against her other than the likely pace scenario (which maybe doesn't matter in turf sprints quite as much) but he has been ice cold at Saratoga so far...so I'll take a shot with a horse that I've liked for a long time.

Best value: Race 11 - #5 Seaver 20/1 ML, Hills/Cardenas. A few things to note here. I don't dislike horses like Catch That Party or even Front Man, both coming out of the same race but I don't see much pace in this race. While I don't necessarily trust Luis Cardenas to give this horse the perfect ride and I don't love betting 3YOs against older in turf routes, I feel this horse is worth a shot as neither Summer Front or Queen Frostine scream "sprinter" to me and this horse may actually like the added ground. The talent on turf seems to be there as he's looked pretty good in his last two turf starts. It's a big question mark and a challenge for him, but I think he may be up to it.

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

Saturday picks

Best bet: Race 10 - #5 Tobys Heart 8/1 ML, Lynch/Santana. I am a sucker for this horse but I really do think she has a lot of talent and the pace here should be very fast, allowing her to make a run at them late. Gaffalione is on the favorite and I've got no knock against her other than the likely pace scenario (which maybe doesn't matter in turf sprints quite as much) but he has been ice cold at Saratoga so far...so I'll take a shot with a horse that I've liked for a long time.

Best value: Race 11 - #5 Seaver 20/1 ML, Hills/Cardenas. A few things to note here. I don't dislike horses like Catch That Party or even Front Man, both coming out of the same race but I don't see much pace in this race. While I don't necessarily trust Luis Cardenas to give this horse the perfect ride and I don't love betting 3YOs against older in turf routes, I feel this horse is worth a shot as neither Summer Front or Queen Frostine scream "sprinter" to me and this horse may actually like the added ground. The talent on turf seems to be there as he's looked pretty good in his last two turf starts. It's a big question mark and a challenge for him, but I think he may be up to it.

Tobys Heart just didn’t look good today from start to finish. Seaver tried to wire them, was gamely in the stretch and held on for 2nd.

After Day 8.
Total wagered: $64.00
Total returned: $57.50
Record 16 2-4-2

[theguarantee]

Best bet - Race 10 - 9 Funding Gap 5/1
Best value - Race 9 - 6 Caironi 12/1

[moses]

After Day 9.
Total wagered: $72.00
Total returned: $71.40
Record 18 3-5-2

Almost into the black. Swiftsure won fairly easily but went off at even money. Battle Station got up for 2nd but was never close to winning.

[moses]

Originally Posted by cmfhb411

$13.20 to place, just couldn't beat Catch That Party. Nice he held 2nd for ya.
Good call!!

Thanks. 22/1 and fought hard in the stretch to hang on for 2nd.

[moses]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

I flirted with using Rhombique as my longshot for today but chickened out. Now the redboard is really complete

[moses]

Sunday picks

Best bet: Race 8 - #7 Swiftsure 2/1 ML Brisset/Santana.

Best value: Race 4 - #7 Battle Station 6/1 ML Atras/Carmouche.

[theguarantee]

The picks yesterday were not good. Continues to be feast or famine.

Saturday, 7/23
Wagered: $56.00
Returned: $84.30

Didn't find any real intriguing longshots at the Spa today...

Best Bet - Race 7: 9 Royal Dancer 4/1
Speedball shortens up today which I usually don't necessarily like on turf as much as dirt but the last couple efforts make her very tough in here to me. In particular last out where she ran the rest of the speeds into the ground (check their beyer patterns) and really fought on gamely at a tough distance against Dream Central and Robyn and Eli. I know the latter disappointed since but DC came back running and the R&E race is too bad to be true so thinking she's just totally lost form or something went wrong. I think she's just better than those who have had turf tries in here so if Tough Street doesn't really take to the grass I think she'll prevail.

Best Value - Race 10: 3 Star Devine 9/2
Seems a notch below the best in here perhaps but lightly raced with upside and love the tactical speed which should ensure a good trip sitting just behind what should be a solid pace (I know). Needs to find a little more in the lane but think she can, especially on the cutback to 5.5 where I thought her return off a long layoff at Keeneland in April was excellent. Hoping third off the bench she's ready for a move forward today.

Good luck

[theguarantee]

Saturday, 7/30

Best Bet - Race 9: 2 Epicenter 3/2
I never usually take such a small price but I think with the presence of both of the Chad runners that this is one of those rare occasions that the horse is still an overlay. I've just always thought he is the class of this bunch and I believe the Preakness a lot of different things conspired against him. Fully expect him to have enjoyed the freshening and get back to proving that he's the best of these today. Appears to be training like he's back to his A game.

Best Value - Race 10: 10 Colosseo 6/1
Obviously this is a total guess but I want to see Capensis do it again today especially given the post. So I started looking and kept poking holes in everyone else. Colosseo led St Mark's Basilica last year and was only beaten under two lengths. So we know there is some ability there. Why this horse is now with Wayne Catalano, what happened after that start or why they targeted this race at Saratoga. I'm going to take the presence of lasix and Rosario today as a positive though...kind of a total guess but feels like a decent spot for one...especially as this card today didn't do a ton for me as most races I either liked the favorites or had no clue.

Good luck.

[theguarantee]

Sunday, July 31st
Best Bet - Race 5: 9 Baby Blythe 9/2
Best Value - Race 10: 7 Sharp Sensation 6/1