Two at Toga (2022)

[moses]

Saturday picks

Best bet: Race 10 - #5 Tobys Heart 8/1 ML, Lynch/Santana. I am a sucker for this horse but I really do think she has a lot of talent and the pace here should be very fast, allowing her to make a run at them late. Gaffalione is on the favorite and I've got no knock against her other than the likely pace scenario (which maybe doesn't matter in turf sprints quite as much) but he has been ice cold at Saratoga so far...so I'll take a shot with a horse that I've liked for a long time.

Best value: Race 11 - #5 Seaver 20/1 ML, Hills/Cardenas. A few things to note here. I don't dislike horses like Catch That Party or even Front Man, both coming out of the same race but I don't see much pace in this race. While I don't necessarily trust Luis Cardenas to give this horse the perfect ride and I don't love betting 3YOs against older in turf routes, I feel this horse is worth a shot as neither Summer Front or Queen Frostine scream "sprinter" to me and this horse may actually like the added ground. The talent on turf seems to be there as he's looked pretty good in his last two turf starts. It's a big question mark and a challenge for him, but I think he may be up to it.