Two at Toga (2022)

[moses]

Saturday picks

Best bet: Race 10 - #5 Tobys Heart 8/1 ML, Lynch/Santana. I am a sucker for this horse but I really do think she has a lot of talent and the pace here should be very fast, allowing her to make a run at them late. Gaffalione is on the favorite and I've got no knock against her other than the likely pace scenario (which maybe doesn't matter in turf sprints quite as much) but he has been ice cold at Saratoga so far...so I'll take a shot with a horse that I've liked for a long time.

Best value: Race 11 - #5 Seaver 20/1 ML, Hills/Cardenas. A few things to note here. I don't dislike horses like Catch That Party or even Front Man, both coming out of the same race but I don't see much pace in this race. While I don't necessarily trust Luis Cardenas to give this horse the perfect ride and I don't love betting 3YOs against older in turf routes, I feel this horse is worth a shot as neither Summer Front or Queen Frostine scream "sprinter" to me and this horse may actually like the added ground. The talent on turf seems to be there as he's looked pretty good in his last two turf starts. It's a big question mark and a challenge for him, but I think he may be up to it.

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

Saturday picks

Best bet: Race 10 - #5 Tobys Heart 8/1 ML, Lynch/Santana. I am a sucker for this horse but I really do think she has a lot of talent and the pace here should be very fast, allowing her to make a run at them late. Gaffalione is on the favorite and I've got no knock against her other than the likely pace scenario (which maybe doesn't matter in turf sprints quite as much) but he has been ice cold at Saratoga so far...so I'll take a shot with a horse that I've liked for a long time.

Best value: Race 11 - #5 Seaver 20/1 ML, Hills/Cardenas. A few things to note here. I don't dislike horses like Catch That Party or even Front Man, both coming out of the same race but I don't see much pace in this race. While I don't necessarily trust Luis Cardenas to give this horse the perfect ride and I don't love betting 3YOs against older in turf routes, I feel this horse is worth a shot as neither Summer Front or Queen Frostine scream "sprinter" to me and this horse may actually like the added ground. The talent on turf seems to be there as he's looked pretty good in his last two turf starts. It's a big question mark and a challenge for him, but I think he may be up to it.

Tobys Heart just didn’t look good today from start to finish. Seaver tried to wire them, was gamely in the stretch and held on for 2nd.

After Day 8.
Total wagered: $64.00
Total returned: $57.50
Record 16 2-4-2

[theguarantee]

Best bet - Race 10 - 9 Funding Gap 5/1
Best value - Race 9 - 6 Caironi 12/1

[moses]

After Day 9.
Total wagered: $72.00
Total returned: $71.40
Record 18 3-5-2

Almost into the black. Swiftsure won fairly easily but went off at even money. Battle Station got up for 2nd but was never close to winning.

[moses]

Wednesday July 27.

I really didn’t like this card very much.

Best bet: Race 4 - #4 Kimari 4/1 ML, Ward/Rosario.

Best value: Race 10 - #11 Aquila Moon 5/1 ML, Stewart/Alvarado.

[theguarantee]

Best Bet - Race 6: 1 Gambling Girl 7/2 - Won’t be surprised if we get more or less than the morning line in here. I thought the debut was an educational trip this one will move forward off of. Got some dirt, was ridden hard for a long while and seemed to find stride late. Should appreciate another furlong today.

Best Value - Race 10: 7 Glitter Up 10/1: With plenty of flashier pedigrees and connections I just think she’s going to offer some value in here. Might seem (or be) like not the winning type given 3 seconds in 4 starts but she has speed, worked lights out since the last and while overlooked should be dangerous today at a nice price.

Good luck - ps nice picking of late Moses, hopefully that doesn’t jinx you today.

[moses]

Originally Posted by theguarantee

Best Bet - Race 6: 1 Gambling Girl 7/2 - Won’t be surprised if we get more or less than the morning line in here. I thought the debut was an educational trip this one will move forward off of. Got some dirt, was ridden hard for a long while and seemed to find stride late. Should appreciate another furlong today.

Best Value - Race 10: 7 Glitter Up 10/1: With plenty of flashier pedigrees and connections I just think she’s going to offer some value in here. Might seem (or be) like not the winning type given 3 seconds in 4 starts but she has speed, worked lights out since the last and while overlooked should be dangerous today at a nice price.

Good luck - ps nice picking of late Moses, hopefully that doesn’t jinx you today.

Thanks. It’s nice to catch up a bit.

After Day 10.
Total wagered: $80.00
Total returned: $85.00
Record 20 4-5-2

[moses]

Originally Posted by cmfhb411

$13.20 to place, just couldn't beat Catch That Party. Nice he held 2nd for ya.
Good call!!

Thanks. 22/1 and fought hard in the stretch to hang on for 2nd.