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  #21  
Old 03-28-2021, 05:51 PM
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Kasept Kasept is offline
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#7 Essential Quality (Brad Cox, 4-1, $10.20);
#24 ďAll Other 3-Year-OldsĒ (5-1, $12.80);
#4 Concert Tour (Bob Baffert, 5-1, $13);
#8 Greatest Honour (Shug McGaughey, 9-1, $20.80);
#12 Hot Rod Charlie (Doug OíNeill, 12-1, $26.20);
#15 Medina Spirit (Bob Baffert, 13-1, $28.80);

#18 Prevalence (Brendan Walsh, 21-1, $45.40);
#11 Highly Motivated (Chad Brown, 25-1, $53.80);
#16 Midnight Bourbon (Steve Asmussen, 27-1, $56.80);
#9 Helium (Mark Casse, 28-1, $59.80);
#20 Risk Taking (Chad Brown, 30-1, $62.80);
#21 Rock Your World (John Sadler, 31-1, $65);

#2 Caddo River (Brad Cox, 33-1, $69.40);
#23 Weyburn (Jimmy Jerkens, 35-1, $72.80);
#3 Collaborate (Saffie Joseph Jr., 36-1, $74.40);
#14 Mandaloun (Brad Cox, 36-1, $75.40);
#5 Crowded Trade (Chad Brown, 38-1, $78.40);
#13 Hozier (Bob Baffert, 44-1, $91.40);

#6 Dream Shake (Peter Eurton, 45-1, $92);
#22 Spielberg (Bob Baffert, 46-1, $95);
#17 O Besos (Greg Foley, 50-1, $102.20);
#19 Proxy (Mike Stidham, 51-1, $105.60);
#10 Hidden Stash (Vicki Oliver, 53-1, $109.60);
#1 Big Lake (Steve Asmussen, SCRATCHED).
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  #22  
Old 03-28-2021, 06:17 PM
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moses moses is offline
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Some time between this morning when I woke up and 6:00 tonight, an additional $500 was wagered on Collaborate (about 10% of the money wagered on him.) In the grand scheme of things itís not much but Iím wondering who put money on him after the Florida Derby. There is basically no chance he will even start in the Kentucky Derby at this point.
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  #23  
Old 03-28-2021, 07:39 PM
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Dunbar Dunbar is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by moses View Post
Some time between this morning when I woke up and 6:00 tonight, an additional $500 was wagered on Collaborate (about 10% of the money wagered on him.) In the grand scheme of things itís not much but Iím wondering who put money on him after the Florida Derby. There is basically no chance he will even start in the Kentucky Derby at this point.
How about all the money that was bet on Collaborate and Greatest Honour BEFORE the Florida Derby was run?! This routinely happens with the Future Wager.
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Curlin and Hard Spun finish 1,2 in the 2007 BC Classic, demonstrating how competing in all three Triple Crown races ruins a horse for the rest of the year...see avatar
photo from REUTERS/Lucas Jackson
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  #24  
Old 03-28-2021, 07:52 PM
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Dunbar Dunbar is offline
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Originally Posted by Dahoss View Post
Dunbar, we can agree to disagree. Next time just say you donít like me and save yourself the time from having to write an essay. The line of internet douchebags who donít like me forms to the left and is very long. Take a number.

You have an edge betting Derby futures but canít and wonít prove it. Iím very impressed. I have to say, saying if you showed me proof that youíve made money in the past it would ruin your edge for the future is right on brand and very intellectually dishonest. Have fun with that one.

Consider this my last word on the topic. Something tells me youíll need the last word. Have at it
I have to admit I'm curious whether you're really capable of letting me have the last word. I guess we'll see.

I wasted a lot of time on this thread and I regret it. But at least it's made a couple of things clear to me. First, you don't have the foggiest notion of what expected value is or what "having an edge" really means. More surprisingly, you don't seem to understand the fact that in parimutual pools, if you convince everyone to bet like you do, your payoffs suffer.

You can relax. I won't make the mistake of engaging with you again.
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Curlin and Hard Spun finish 1,2 in the 2007 BC Classic, demonstrating how competing in all three Triple Crown races ruins a horse for the rest of the year...see avatar
photo from REUTERS/Lucas Jackson
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  #25  
Old 03-28-2021, 07:53 PM
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RolloTomasi RolloTomasi is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by moses View Post
Some time between this morning when I woke up and 6:00 tonight, an additional $500 was wagered on Collaborate (about 10% of the money wagered on him.) In the grand scheme of things itís not much but Iím wondering who put money on him after the Florida Derby. There is basically no chance he will even start in the Kentucky Derby at this point.
If it's not because of some accounting delay, bet with both fists in the Lexington Stakes...
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  #26  
Old 03-28-2021, 08:11 PM
Dahoss Dahoss is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dunbar View Post
I have to admit I'm curious whether you're really capable of letting me have the last word. I guess we'll see.

I wasted a lot of time on this thread and I regret it. But at least it's made a couple of things clear to me. First, you don't have the foggiest notion of what expected value is or what "having an edge" really means. More surprisingly, you don't seem to understand the fact that in parimutual pools, if you convince everyone to bet like you do, your payoffs suffer.

You can relax. I won't make the mistake of engaging with you again.
Youíre probably right. Iím sure if you just proved that youíve been able to make money in future pools consistently that hundreds, if not thousands would rush to this board to see the brilliance of betting ďall other 3 year oldsĒ at 2-1 four months before the race. Youíre not that important.

Again, we agree to disagree. Itís not a big deal. For some reason, you seem personally offended because I think these bets are bad bets. Iím not sure why you are so offended, but itís pretty funny.

Another thing I find hilarious is you seem incapable of just dropping it. Almost like Iíve really gotten under your skin and as hard as you are trying to stay calm, youíre clearly mad.

Mission accomplished! GFY Dunbar and shove your blackjack CD up your tight ass, k?
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  #27  
Old 03-28-2021, 08:16 PM
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moses moses is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dunbar View Post
How about all the money that was bet on Collaborate and Greatest Honour BEFORE the Florida Derby was run?! This routinely happens with the Future Wager.
Agreed about that. I wait until late in the day on Sunday to make my wager no matter what.
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