3/26-28 (CD): Derby Future Wager ~ Pool 5

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by Conrad

I got lucky (or unlucky, as it was) when i bet Giacomo in the 2005 future pool at 25-1.
I had soured on him by the time the Derby came around and passed on him at 50-1.

The End

I did almost the same except I bet him Derby Day too.

Soured me on the future pools.

[moses]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

I did almost the same except I bet him Derby Day too.

Soured me on the future pools.

The futures wagers are bad bets...but I still make them because they can be fun.

In the past, I've picked different horses for each pool. This year, I just kept betting Concert Tour so I've got some money to win on him and then a bunch of small ($1 or $2) exactas with different horses in each pool and a few doubles with him. I've got a $1 exacta of Concert Tour over Hot Rod Charlie that will pay $1030. And while that's still probably not going to happen, it's kind of fun to have that possibility.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by moses

The futures wagers are bad bets...but I still make them because they can be fun.

In the past, I've picked different horses for each pool. This year, I just kept betting Concert Tour so I've got some money to win on him and then a bunch of small ($1 or $2) exactas with different horses in each pool and a few doubles with him. I've got a $1 exacta of Concert Tour over Hot Rod Charlie that will pay $1030. And while that's still probably not going to happen, it's kind of fun to have that possibility.

I hear ya. If you’re looking at it as a fun bet, it is.

[moses]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

I hear ya. If you’re looking at it as a fun bet, it is.

Yeah. I mean, winning money is generally more fun than losing money. But I don't wager a ton of money on these future bets and consider them a little more like lottery tickets than typical horse bets.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

I don’t see how betting a race that is 6 weeks away where there are so many variables could possibly be considered a good bet.

Just like any other horse bet, there is information to analyze. The time until the race is another variable. Often, adding a new variable is a good thing in betting, especially if you think you have a better handle on it than the majority of bettors.

Originally Posted by Dahoss

I’m sure all those people who bet Life Is Good thought they made a good bet.

Doesn’t everyone who makes any horse bet think they've made a good bet? I think you'd agree that 99%+ of them are wrong.

Originally Posted by Dahoss

So much can change in this game, with 3 year olds, daily. Why make it more difficult on yourself and your bankroll?

Why make any horse racing bet? With its house edge/takeout of 15-25% it would appear way more difficult than, say, NFL betting, where the house edge is less than 5%. But sometimes the difficulty presents opportunities for the betting public to make big mistakes.

Originally Posted by Dahoss

I just think it’s very difficult if not impossible to determine value this far out. Too much can happen.

It’s another variable. It's not impossible to analyze.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Just like any other horse bet, there is information to analyze. The time until the race is another variable. Often, adding a new variable is a good thing in betting, especially if you think you have a better handle on it than the majority of bettors.



Doesn’t everyone who makes any horse bet think they've made a good bet? I think you'd agree that 99%+ of them are wrong.



Why make any horse racing bet? With its house edge/takeout of 15-25% it would appear way more difficult than, say, NFL betting, where the house edge is less than 5%. But sometimes the difficulty presents opportunities for the betting public to make big mistakes.



It’s another variable. It's not impossible to analyze.

Yawn. Why not tell us who you think is a good value bet at this point and we will come back to the thread and see if you were right.

If you can’t see why these are bad value bets, nothing anyone says will change your mind. Comparing future bets to non future bets is intellectually dishonest and you know that.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Yawn. Why not tell us who you think is a good value bet at this point and we will come back to the thread and see if you were right.

Please explain how you will evaluate whether I was "right". Does my bet have to win to be right? If so, we have a very different definition of 'good bet'.

How about if my horse goes off at lower odds in the Derby than my odds in the Future Wager, does that make me right? If so, how will you evaluate a bet on All Others? (I can help you with that one if you're stumped.)

Originally Posted by Dahoss

If you can’t see why these are bad value bets, nothing anyone says will change your mind.

It's true that someone saying 'it's hard' or 'there's no value' will not get me to change my mind.

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Comparing future bets to non future bets is intellectually dishonest and you know that.

Calling someone "intellectually dishonest" because they disagree with you is pretty silly.

Just because you cannot see an edge in a game or a certain kind of bet, it does not mean that someone else cannot.