15 Reasons why AP can't win The Crown

[FATPIANO]

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

Look at the Bids pp's . If he couldn't , how can this hoss?
No way he wins 4 grade I races in 8weeks. The bottom that is so necesssy to win the first 2 jewels is a hinderance in the Belmont . Fresher legs rule the day. He will be dogged like he hasn't been thus far and in the end will succumb to the pressure and the distance will get to him at the 3/16 pole . He will then falter and be off the board. One of those cases where I'll get huge against a hoss that I'll be rooting for. If he wins , he is quite deserving. But it's not gonna happen.

ditto

[declansharbor]

Since this thread is all about proclaiming opinions as truths, here's my "fact" for the masses.

He breaks clean, settles in, and runs away from them in the stretch. Triple Crown drought is ova!

[Dunbar]

Sheesh, there are apparently just two possibilities. (1) AP can't possibly win, or (2) he's a lock.

The reality is that of course AP can win the TC. The only reasonable question is what are his chances. 25%? 50%? 67%? I haven't capped it yet, but I doubt the odds should be outside that range.

Here's a question for freddymo: If AP had run exactly the same races with exactly the same results, but had not won the 2-yr-old Championship, would you then think he is less likely to win the TC? In fact, AP only beat Texas Red 126-111 in the Eclipse voting. If Texas Red had been voted 2-yr-old Champion, would that mean AP now has less chance to win the TC?

[FATPIANO]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Sheesh, there are apparently just two possibilities. (1) AP can't possibly win, or (2) he's a lock.

The reality is that of course AP can win the TC. The only reasonable question is what are his chances. 25%? 50%? 67%? I haven't capped it yet, but I doubt the odds should be outside that range.

Here's a question for freddymo: If AP had run exactly the same races with exactly the same results, but had not won the 2-yr-old Championship, would you then think he is less likely to win the TC? In fact, AP only beat Texas Red 126-111 in the Eclipse voting. If Texas Red had been voted 2-yr-old Champion, would that mean AP now has less chance to win the TC?

lol funny stuff

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Sheesh, there are apparently just two possibilities. (1) AP can't possibly win, or (2) he's a lock.

I posted about this the other day to some degree...

http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/sho...5&postcount=56

It's impossible to have a logical, honest conversation about horses like this with some folks. Their percentages are 100% winner and there is no way it's anything but that. Despite the fact, ya know, it's horse racing.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

I posted about this the other day to some degree...

http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/sho...5&postcount=56

It's impossible to have a logical, honest conversation about horses like this with some folks. Their percentages are 100% winner and there is no way it's anything but that. Despite the fact, ya know, it's horse racing.

I agree, Travis, except that the people saying AP has zero chance are just as bad, IMO.

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

I agree, Travis, except that the people saying AP has zero chance are just as bad, IMO.

I don't see as many of those, and even then, they sound more like horseplayers/handicappers than haters.

[Arletta]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

I don't see as many of those, and even then, they sound more like horseplayers/handicappers than haters.

I admit.. I am all three

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

I don't see as many of those, and even then, they sound more like horseplayers/handicappers than haters.

Haters is a really inappropriate word for this sort of thing, but really, there really are more people on DT saying he can't or won't win than there are saying he's a lock.

And I don't really understand the problem people have with someone having an opinion that a horse is a lock.

How and why does that offend people's common sense? I don't get it.

On the flip side of your comment that the AP detractors sound more like handicappers than haters, what's that mean about people that think AP is a lock? Mindless fans?

Your posts on this topic could easily be construed as superior, smug and insulting.