What Is The Fairest Turf Course?

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Those numbers seem pretty fair by and large.

I think it's generally a pretty fair course, one of my favorites to bet on...but it does trend slightly to closers or speed horses, in my opinion, either way, but since that doesn't make a whole lot of sense, I really think that lots of the races that are won by speed or closers boils down to race dynamics rather than any intrinsic unfairness in the course.

It becomes a bit more extreme when broken out, though.

Rail 0-42 feet

Stalkers/Closers 60/109 = 55%
Pressers/Speed 49/109 = 45%



Rail 43-87 feet

Stalkers/Closers 44/71 = 62%
Pressers/Speed 27/71 = 38%

[Scav]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

Winner’s Running Style on Arlington Turf

Closers: 61/180 = 33.9%
Stalkers: 43/180 = 23.9%
Pressers: 29/180 = 16.1%
Speed: 47/180 = 26.1%

When the rail is out past 42 feet, the course becomes much less favorable to speed/pressing types. When the rail is in from 0-42 feet, you're looking at a much fairer course.

You need to break out sprint's from this, specific to 5f sprints I think. There is a massive bias in those races. I think only 2 horses have closed from less then 4 lengths in those races, and I think 20 of them have been run.

I think it skews the speed number.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by Scav

You need to break out sprint's from this, specific to 5f sprints I think. There is a massive bias in those races. I think only 2 horses have closed from less then 4 lengths in those races, and I think 20 of them have been run.

I think it skews the speed number.

Thomas.... good stat.

[tiggerv]

Average field size, number of races at distance, wire-to-wire win percentage and win percentage of horses sitting 1st, 2nd or 3rd at first call. Broken out by distance and firm/wet turf.

365 Day Stats (Not just current meet)

Arlington


Colonial

[Scav]

Originally Posted by tiggerv

Average field size, number of races at distance, wire-to-wire win percentage and win percentage of horses sitting 1st, 2nd or 3rd at first call. Broken out by distance and firm/wet turf.

365 Day Stats (Not just current meet)

Arlington


Colonial

Thanks for these....

Can you get a current meet one?

Fair Grounds is a horrible turf course. It's more like a sand course.

[tiggerv]

Originally Posted by Scav

Thanks for these....

Can you get a current meet one?

Yeah, I closed out of my database but I will pull them. I will pull Fairgrounds too

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by Scav

You need to break out sprint's from this, specific to 5f sprints I think. There is a massive bias in those races. I think only 2 horses have closed from less then 4 lengths in those races, and I think 20 of them have been run.

I think it skews the speed number.

Not as bad as it seems watching the races.

13 of 48 (27%) turf sprints have been won by horses on the lead at the half-mile call (which I know is very near the end of these sprints, but it's the best way to measure it....if a speed horse was up front and going to win, they'd likely still be there, but remember that these "style" stats are done by eye, so the speed winners really are speed winners, and likely fit the criteria listed above).

10 of 32 (31%) turf sprints at 5f have been won by horses on the lead at the half-mile call.

And funnily enough, Surfer Rosa has the meet record for most lengths OFF the pace at the half-mile call to have won.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

Not as bad as it seems watching the races.

13 of 48 (27%) turf sprints have been won by horses on the lead at the half-mile call (which I know is very near the end of these sprints, but it's the best way to measure it....if a speed horse was up front and going to win, they'd likely still be there, but remember that these "style" stats are done by eye, so the speed winners really are speed winners, and likely fit the criteria listed above).

10 of 32 (31%) turf sprints at 5f have been won by horses on the lead at the half-mile call.

And funnily enough, Surfer Rosa has the meet record for most lengths OFF the pace at the half-mile call to have won.

Half mile call? Are you talking at the half mile pole or the half mile time?

The numbers I caught were W2W.

I got those stats from TSTV.com's handicapping section, which those numbers come from Bris.

I can't find the Drugs-like email I put together, the next 5f race on the turf, I'll post what they have.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by Scav

Half mile call? Are you talking at the half mile pole or the half mile time?

The numbers I caught were W2W.

I got those stats from TSTV.com's handicapping section, which those numbers come from Bris.

I can't find the Drugs-like email I put together, the next 5f race on the turf, I'll post what they have.

Half mile call, so like I said, near the end of the race -- but if a winner is listed as "speed" in the Arlington Turf Stats, then it was a speed horse up top who held on the whole way, so it's really distinction without a difference.

So the stats above are for leaders at the half-mile call, near the end of the race, but they aren't that significantly higher than the "speed" horse numbers, so the point is essentially the same, that speed horses, however you classify them, win about a third of turf sprints, any way you look at it as far as I can tell from the visual "turf stats" and the Polycapping databse.