Garrett At The Shore

[philcski]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Let's do this. You take some serious bankroll and play closers at MTH this summer. I suppose 'reality' might set in then.

I have nothing against playing speed. I play speed all the time, even on POLY (even at WO). My problem is when horses running other than early don't have a fair chance to win. This is the case at MTH; it's the case at MED; and it's also, pretty much, the case at GP. Compare GP to TAM. You can win on the front end at TAM probably as easily as you can at GP. The important difference, however, is that you have significantly better chance of winning from off the pace at TAM than you do at GP. Maybe this why so many bettors have moved from GP to TAM.

I don't need stats to tell me the above. I play these tracks and I'm very aware of how they play.

They can pretty MTH up all they want; it's still UNFAIR.

Listen, I'm not trying to convince you that it's a closer's paradise, because it isn't. All I'm suggesting is it's not as unfair as you (and most everyone) believe. Meadowlands is actually more kind to closers than Belmont or Saratoga. Here's the thing. This game isn't just an exercise in picking the most winners, it's picking winners that return more than the next guy does. So if the public seems to think that only wins, you can use that to your advantage. From 2004-2007, the average wire job at Monmouth paid $9.80 versus anything off the pace paid $12.80. If you can find a horse that makes sense coming from off the pace, you will get rewarded accordingly.

In comparison, Belmont, paid $11.60 for wire jobs and $10.80 for anything off the pace.