Garrett At The Shore - Page 3

blackthroatedwind · #41 04-23-2010, 07:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski

50 out of 71 days. The last 21 days take over the Meadowlands' old dates.

I understand all that.

randallscott35 · #42 04-23-2010, 07:35 PM

And the Meadowlands was a money loser at best. The people there would be happy to bet the sulky each night.

randallscott35 · #43 04-23-2010, 07:41 PM

37 Race Days at Del Mar by the way, down from where they used to be. Polycrap.

blackthroatedwind · #44 04-23-2010, 07:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by randallscott35

He will easily get a 25% increase.

At the risk of you getting upset....

I don't think you really understand this. Nobody is " easily " getting an increase like that. One thing you have to take into account is weather. There will invariably be some bad weather days, and those will seriously affect their cards, and thus handle. Those days will show a minimal increase, at best over the prior year. Now, it is also possible they will have better weather overall than last year, which will help them, but there will be days that rate to have little discernable increase.

Getting even a 15% increase over time is extremely difficult in the short run and would be something to be proud of.

philcski · #45 04-23-2010, 07:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

If you want people coming to the race track and seeing 'name' horses, trainers and jocks, then I'm sure that MTH will offer that, and successfully. If you want to repeat the AQU Inner (+ turf races) or GP experience, then MTH summer is the place to be. I can't see how anyone plays this track seriously -- with or without big purses. With all the 'fair' options out there (WO, being the best of them) and all the tracks that offer real money making opportunities (WO again at the top of the list given the large fields) why would anyone play this bull ring?

I wouldn't play this track over BEL/SAR. Tracks like this need to be developed.

Perception: Monmouth Park is speed-biased.
Reality: Monmouth Park is not more friendly to speed by a statistically significant margin, although it is mildly more friendly.

average winner's position (lengths behind at the 2nd call) by track:
CD 6F 1.46
MED 6F 1.26
AQU 6F 1.26
AQUI 6F 1.14
BEL 6F 1.13
SAR 6F 1.01
MTH 6F .96

CD 8F 3.43
MED 8F 3.06
AQU 8F 3.02
BEL 8F 2.94
AQUI 8F 2.93
MTH 8F 2.45
SAR 8F *** Not a distance run. (7F = 1.77)

randallscott35 · #46 04-23-2010, 07:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

At the risk of you getting upset....

I don't think you really understand this. Nobody is " easily " getting an increase like that. One thing you have to take into account is weather. There will invariably be some bad weather days, and those will seriously affect their cards, and thus handle. Those days will show a minimal increase, at best over the prior year. Now, it is also possible they will have better weather overall than last year, which will help them, but there will be days that rate to have little discernable increase.

Getting even a 15% increase over time is extremely difficult in the short run and would be something to be proud of.

25% is doable. You are going from a far lower base than NY. Its not like NJ was knocking the cover off the ball.

blackthroatedwind · #47 04-23-2010, 07:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by randallscott35

25% is doable. You are going from a far lower base than NY. Its not like NJ was knocking the cover off the ball.

From easily over to " doable? "

I didn't say it wasn't but dismissively suggesting they will doesn't exactly suggest a great overview of the situation.

Patrick333 · #48 04-23-2010, 07:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Who ****in' cares where Gomez rides? How does where any jock rides impact on one's ability to pick (and bet) winners? Don't get paid for being a fan.

Well obviously you don't.

the_fat_man · #49 04-23-2010, 07:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski

Perception: Monmouth Park is speed-biased.
Reality: Monmouth Park is not more friendly to speed by a statistically significant margin, although it is mildly more friendly.

Let's do this. You take some serious bankroll and play closers at MTH this summer. I suppose 'reality' might set in then.

I have nothing against playing speed. I play speed all the time, even on POLY (even at WO). My problem is when horses running other than early don't have a fair chance to win. This is the case at MTH; it's the case at MED; and it's also, pretty much, the case at GP. Compare GP to TAM. You can win on the front end at TAM probably as easily as you can at GP. The important difference, however, is that you have significantly better chance of winning from off the pace at TAM than you do at GP. Maybe this why so many bettors have moved from GP to TAM.

I don't need stats to tell me the above. I play these tracks and I'm very aware of how they play.

They can pretty MTH up all they want; it's still UNFAIR.

philcski · #50 04-23-2010, 08:04 PM

More data re: MTH as a speed favoring track:

% of wire-to-wire winners
AQU 37.6
6F 43.4%
8F 30.7%

AQUI 42.8%
6F 48.3%
8F 29.0%

BEL 36.1%
6F 45.1%
8F 25.7%

CD 22.4%
6F 31.6%
8F 14.8%

MED 38.8%
6F 44%
8F 19%

MTH 44.4%
6F 48.3%
8F 28%

SAR 45.4%
6F 42.6%
7F 48.9%

randallscott35 · #51 04-23-2010, 08:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

From easily over to " doable? "

I didn't say it wasn't but dismissively suggesting they will doesn't exactly suggest a great overview of the situation.

Splitting hairs. Easily doable....And again, whatever you say about the plan or prospects can be taken with a grain of salt since you have a vested interest in another....NY still has lower takeout going for it as well as better testing as of now(which bettors are oblivious to)....Monmouth testing leaves a lot to be desired except for Harness strangely enough.

randallscott35 · #52 04-23-2010, 08:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski

More data re: MTH as a speed favoring track:

% of wire-to-wire winners
AQU 37.6
6F 43.4%
8F 30.7%

AQUI 42.8%
6F 48.3%
8F 29.0%

BEL 36.1%
6F 45.1%
8F 25.7%

CD 22.4%
6F 31.6%
8F 14.8%

MED 38.8%
6F 44%
8F 19%

MTH 44.4%
6F 48.3%
8F 28%

SAR 45.4%
6F 42.6%
7F 48.9%

Good info.

Bigsmc · #53 04-23-2010, 08:32 PM

I may be an exception, but I don't ever play Monmouth and don't see myself playing there this summer because they have huge purses. I don't know the track as far as handicapping goes and I don't have the time or want to risk the heartache of learning it.

I'll stick to what I know best this summer and will be watching Mth as a fan not as a player.

blackthroatedwind · #54 04-23-2010, 08:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Splitting hairs. Easily doable....And again, whatever you say about the plan or prospects can be taken with a grain of salt since you have a vested interest in another....NY still has lower takeout going for it as well as better testing as of now(which bettors are oblivious to)....Monmouth testing leaves a lot to be desired except for Harness strangely enough.

And you wonder why I find your comments absurd.

What have I posted here that could even be construed as biased? Please, read carefully.

Cannon Shell · #55 04-23-2010, 09:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Splitting hairs. Easily doable....And again, whatever you say about the plan or prospects can be taken with a grain of salt since you have a vested interest in another....NY still has lower takeout going for it as well as better testing as of now(which bettors are oblivious to)....Monmouth testing leaves a lot to be desired except for Harness strangely enough.

Monmouth runs a harness meet?

randallscott35 · #56 04-23-2010, 09:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Monmouth runs a harness meet?

The Big M does....which is what was replaced.

randallscott35 · #57 04-23-2010, 09:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

And you wonder why I find your comments absurd.

What have I posted here that could even be construed as biased? Please, read carefully.

We will know soon enough what kind of handle increase they are looking at. Mind you overall handle is down 10% year over year most places so it would be something if they can turn that tide.

blackthroatedwind · #58 04-23-2010, 09:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by randallscott35

We will know soon enough what kind of handle increase they are looking at. Mind you overall handle is down 10% year over year most places so it would be something if they can turn that tide.

Mind me?

You're the one who said they would easily surpass a 25% increase in handle....I'm the one who didn't particularly agree.

randallscott35 · #59 04-23-2010, 09:51 PM

INT: You’ve said you need to double handle to sustain these purses of a million a day. What are the realistic chances of that?

That’s not what I said. My projections were soft, 20% to 25% increases. What I tried to allude to is that Saratoga is still the best in the country. We looked at the model–$13 million in daily handle at Saratoga). We are at $3.2 million. Somewhere I said can I grow toward that Saratoga number. Can I double my number this year? I don’t know. We made very soft projections just to maintain where we were: 20% increases on live handle, 20% on transmission of races, and that’s adding two or three races per day, ans assuming our field size will increase from under 7.5 horses per race to 8.75 or maybe nine.

Instead of pissing on it lets see what happens. Getting the trainers and jocks behind it is already a huge start. I will save the thread and revisit when the meet is over.

blackthroatedwind · #60 04-23-2010, 09:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Instead of pissing on it lets see what happens. Getting the trainers and jocks behind it is already a huge start. I will save the thread and revisit when the meet is over.

You've said some unfortunate things in this thread but suggesting I have in any way " pissed " on this takes the cake.

I want them, and everyone in this industry, to do well. This is a conversation...not a condemnation.