Garrett At The Shore

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by philcski

[i]

Interesting... I don't think there's any way to argue against that this will be a wildly successful experiment at Monmouth.

I don't understand how it's even possible that it will be anything close to " wildly successful. " I understand how it should be really good from a racing/handicapping standpoint, and it will be hard not to pay attention to their races, but I think you need to clarify what you mean by this. From a financial standpoint it seems extremely unlikely it will be at all successful.

Monmouth is a great place. From a fans perspective this should be terrific....but successful? For whom?

[Lovely Laurel]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I don't understand how it's even possible that it will be anything close to " wildly successful. " I understand how it should be really good from a racing/handicapping standpoint, and it will be hard not to pay attention to their races, but I think you need to clarify what you mean by this. From a financial standpoint it seems extremely unlikely it will be at all successful.

Monmouth is a great place. From a fans perspective this should be terrific....but successful? For whom?

The intrigue is what will make this successful. The concept is new to a sport that hates to embrace anything new. Huge purses, high profile barns, and the nation's best jockeys signing up every day will make this a runaway success. Not to mention the field sizes. Also, a 3 day/week program will keep the meet far from boring and "watered down."

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Lovely Laurel

The intrigue is what will make this successful. The concept is new to a sport that hates to embrace anything new. Huge purses, high profile barns, and the nation's best jockeys signing up every day will make this a runaway success. Not to mention the field sizes. Also, a 3 day/week program will keep the meet far from boring and "watered down."

The sport hates to embrace anything new?

Which track would balk at a State that offered them the money to run a meet like the one coming up at Monmouth? Please tell me of a track that has in the past.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I don't understand how it's even possible that it will be anything close to " wildly successful. " I understand how it should be really good from a racing/handicapping standpoint, and it will be hard not to pay attention to their races, but I think you need to clarify what you mean by this. From a financial standpoint it seems extremely unlikely it will be at all successful.

Monmouth is a great place. From a fans perspective this should be terrific....but successful? For whom?

It will be wildly successful for fans- who will get a Saratoga-esque experience, and horsemen- who will be chasing mammoth purses, and since Kulina cleverly wrote the condition book there will be ample opportunities for the "regular guy"; hopefully from a handle perspective as well if others agree with me that this (and Saratoga of course) will be the place to focus their wagering capital. I'm not sure how well it will work out for the state of New Jersey, because reduced race dates obviously means unless they increase handle by 40% (probably unattainable) it's a net loser versus the traditional plan. I'd assume NJSEA ends up saving a lot of money on converting Meadowlands and on daily operational costs, but I don't know how their balance sheet looked before it.

[2MinsToPost]

randall needs laid on the beach

whats wrong with going where the money is?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by philcski

It will be wildly successful for fans- who will get a Saratoga-esque experience, and horsemen- who will be chasing mammoth purses, and since Kulina cleverly wrote the condition book there will be ample opportunities for the "regular guy"; hopefully from a handle perspective as well if others agree with me that this (and Saratoga of course) will be the place to focus their wagering capital. I'm not sure how well it will work out for the state of New Jersey, because reduced race dates obviously means unless they increase handle by 40% (probably unattainable) it's a net loser versus the traditional plan. I'd assume NJSEA ends up saving a lot of money on converting Meadowlands and on daily operational costs, but I don't know how their balance sheet looked before it.

If they increase handle by 40% it will be wildly unsuccessful from a financial standpoint.

I'm all for what's good for the fans, and it's hard to believe this won't be great for them, but as a fan of Monmouth Park I would be concerned about it going forward.

[randallscott35]

Why is Saratoga successful? B/c its a boutique meet among other things. This move is the future. There are too many tracks, too much racing. The industry should hope its successful. At least they are trying something. And NJ is in worse shape fiscally than NY in many areas.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Why is Saratoga successful? B/c its a boutique meet among other things. This move is the future. There are too many tracks, too much racing. The industry should hope its successful. At least they are trying something. And NJ is in worse shape fiscally than NY in many areas.

I fail to see how a five month meet qualifies as a " boutique meet. "

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I fail to see how a five month meet qualifies as a " boutique meet. "

Race Days. Do the math.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Race Days. Do the math.

I don't agree.

[the_fat_man]

If you want people coming to the race track and seeing 'name' horses, trainers and jocks, then I'm sure that MTH will offer that, and successfully. If you want to repeat the AQU Inner (+ turf races) or GP experience, then MTH summer is the place to be. I can't see how anyone plays this track seriously -- with or without big purses. With all the 'fair' options out there (WO, being the best of them) and all the tracks that offer real money making opportunities (WO again at the top of the list given the large fields) why would anyone play this bull ring?

I wouldn't play this track over BEL/SAR. Tracks like this need to be developed.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

If they increase handle by 40% it will be wildly unsuccessful from a financial standpoint.

I'm all for what's good for the fans, and it's hard to believe this won't be great for them, but as a fan of Monmouth Park I would be concerned about it going forward.

Kulina is hoping for a 20-25% daily increase. I'm not sure how much of that is managing expectations or whatever, but I think they do better than that number easily.

As a fan of Monmouth Park I also am concerned about it going forward. I love that they're taking a stand, a shot to try something new and possibly revolutionary, instead of just dying a slow death. The purse subsidy ends this year and I could see the AC casinos crying that they're doing poorly because PA has casinos now, etc and not wanting to re-up. What happens from there? Does Monmouth get their own slot parlor? Would it even be worth pursuing? From a more rosy perspective, what if this crazy idea actually works and they turn a 50% increase in handle? Does the industry take a clue?

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by philcski

Kulina is hoping for a 20-25% daily increase. I'm not sure how much of that is managing expectations or whatever, but I think they do better than that number easily.

As a fan of Monmouth Park I also am concerned about it going forward. I love that they're taking a stand, a shot to try something new and possibly revolutionary, instead of just dying a slow death. The purse subsidy ends this year and I could see the AC casinos crying that they're doing poorly because PA has casinos now, etc and not wanting to re-up. What happens from there? Does Monmouth get their own slot parlor? Would it even be worth pursuing? From a more rosy perspective, what if this crazy idea actually works and they turn a 50% increase in handle? Does the industry take a clue?

He will easily get a 25% increase.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

He will easily get a 25% increase.

At the risk of you getting upset....

I don't think you really understand this. Nobody is " easily " getting an increase like that. One thing you have to take into account is weather. There will invariably be some bad weather days, and those will seriously affect their cards, and thus handle. Those days will show a minimal increase, at best over the prior year. Now, it is also possible they will have better weather overall than last year, which will help them, but there will be days that rate to have little discernable increase.

Getting even a 15% increase over time is extremely difficult in the short run and would be something to be proud of.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

At the risk of you getting upset....

I don't think you really understand this. Nobody is " easily " getting an increase like that. One thing you have to take into account is weather. There will invariably be some bad weather days, and those will seriously affect their cards, and thus handle. Those days will show a minimal increase, at best over the prior year. Now, it is also possible they will have better weather overall than last year, which will help them, but there will be days that rate to have little discernable increase.

Getting even a 15% increase over time is extremely difficult in the short run and would be something to be proud of.

25% is doable. You are going from a far lower base than NY. Its not like NJ was knocking the cover off the ball.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by philcski

Kulina is hoping for a 20-25% daily increase. I'm not sure how much of that is managing expectations or whatever, but I think they do better than that number easily.

As a fan of Monmouth Park I also am concerned about it going forward. I love that they're taking a stand, a shot to try something new and possibly revolutionary, instead of just dying a slow death. The purse subsidy ends this year and I could see the AC casinos crying that they're doing poorly because PA has casinos now, etc and not wanting to re-up. What happens from there? Does Monmouth get their own slot parlor? Would it even be worth pursuing? From a more rosy perspective, what if this crazy idea actually works and they turn a 50% increase in handle? Does the industry take a clue?

I hope they do great but it seems highly unlikely they get that kind of increase over their weekend days from prior meets. Sure if they go total days the numbers may look better but that's a funny way to look at it.

Remember, the big purses are not for the entire meet. If you take the entire meet into account it seems hard to believe they will achieve that kind of success.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I hope they do great but it seems highly unlikely they get that kind of increase over their weekend days from prior meets. Sure if they go total days the numbers may look better but that's a funny way to look at it.

Remember, the big purses are not for the entire meet. If you take the entire meet into account it seems hard to believe they will achieve that kind of success.

50 out of 71 days. The last 21 days take over the Meadowlands' old dates.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by philcski

50 out of 71 days. The last 21 days take over the Meadowlands' old dates.

I understand all that.