Not getting multi-play tickets built Wednesday may have been very costly with winners present in all legs of the Belmont P6/P4 sequences which generously paid $30k and $1k. But structure beat us as 4th choices Caminadora ($12) and Silenced ($25) were left off the simple plays to go with the 4 other top tabs who all won. Inclusions of those 4th/6th race winners in P3’s were of some salvation with returns of $169 (4-6), $280 (5-7), $283 (6-8). Had potential to be really memorable, but good day overall and hope you did well!

A deliriously fun and challenging card at Belmont Thursday before Keeneland opens Friday.

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: MSW, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Cruisin’nthebridle 3-1 WON
Next Best: #1a (POE) Siren Serenade 2-1 2nd
Best Value: #9 Upper Gulch 8-1 5th
Super Add: #2 (POE) Maid of Flowers 12-1 7th

2nd: MSW, 2yo, 1m (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Unbelievably intriguing race with some expensive horseflesh. Leaving $400k Baatesh and $1.2MM Lambeau Legend out of selections but either could improve enough 2nd time out to contend. Consider protecting with backups in multi-race wagers.

Most Likely: #3 Rule 3-1 WON
Best Value: #4 Ice Box 12-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Flexthegoldenpipes 5-2 5th
Super Add: #2 Bank the Eight 5-1 2nd

3rd: Memories of Silver, F&M-3+, 6f-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Another terrific event with superbly matched field of hard-knocking fillies and mares. Sense Merriwether Jessica may be in form cycle slip and prefer the other two (!) Rice runners today. Cross-out Them There Eyes’ off turf and Yaddo, and note strong try in state bred Lottsa Talc behind open company Turf Amazon (PHA) stake winner Canadian Ballet..

Most Likely: #5 Karakorum Elektra 5-1 WON
Best Value: #2 Them There Eyes 15-1 6th
Next Best: #3 Mohegan Sky 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #6 Stormy Relations 10-1 7th

4th: MSW, 2yo, 8.5f-T (P6, P3, DD)

Outrageously wide open affair with Zapster in the 8-5 Pletcher entry utterly beatable.. Demand value..

Best Value: #6 Precipice Trail 8-1 4th
Most Likely: #10 Montesquieu 3-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 Ryvit 10-1 7th
Exotics Use: #4 Hero’s Empire 20-1 10th

5th: CLM/N3L, F&M-3+, 6f (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #4 Akonite 12-1 6th
Most Likely: #6 Gracious Victory 9-2 2nd
Next Best: #7 O’Sotopretty 3-1 WON
Super Add: #9 Sister’s Speed 7-2 3rd

<$75 P4 Play:

2: 3-4-5
3: 5-7
4: 3-4-6-10
5: 4-6-7

3x2x4x3 = $72

6th: NYB-MSW, 2yo-F, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

No less than 5 from 9/4 Spa set could go here if Serpe’s Nurse Dolce were to get in. Question to answer is if any of them are that good, and who emerged from that race having distinguished themselves. Given that she was saddled with Studart, I Do That gave an excellent account of herself debuting a route and having to move through horses and up the rail late. 9-2 to start the bidding, and hope we get an even better number given we have to endure the Brazil nut again.

Most Likely: #4 I Do That 9-2 3rd
Best Value: #8 Faraway Cat 12-1 6th
Next Best: #9 Mystic City 15-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Australis Princess 10-1 WON

7th: CLM/N1Y, 3+, 6f-IT (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #9 Sly 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #10 Laudable 5-1 8th
Next Best: #5 Prince Woodman 3-1 WON
Exotics Use: #4 Dragon Fi 7-2 3rd

8th: OC/N2X, 3+, 8.5f (DD, Super)

Best Value: #2 Brother Nick 5-1 5th
Most Likely: #6 Even Raise 5-2 6th
Next Best: #4 Ea 2-1 WON
Super Add: #1 Retriever 6-1 2nd

9th: CLM, 3+, 6.5f (Super)

Best Value: #4 McGlamery Road 5-1 2nd
Most Likely: #1 Trusting Heart 3-1
Next Best: #7 Geno Green 7-2 WON
Super Add: #8 Volos 9-2

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 3-4-5-7-8-9
7: 9
8: 1-2-4-6
9: 1-4-7

6x1x4x3 = $72

Race week opens with nice $52k+ C/O pot at Belmont though potential for early morning rain threatens the four grass races in the sequence. Addition of Keeneland to the venue lineup Friday sends fall championship season into overdrive with another 12 Gr. I races scheduled through Sunday. Hope you enjoyed Jockey Club Gold Cup Day and the historic win by Summer Bird. Lots to get excited by this week!

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: MSW, 2yo-F, 1m-T (P6, P3, DD)

Runners exiting Spa closing day MSW dot this field, and seem to be hold keys to today’s set. Pletcher runner DAD’S CRAZY, second to Hatheer that day, will SCR having already won Sunday’s off/turf Miss Grillo with 69 Beyer. That leaves the other Pletcher (#2 Caminadora), Clement’s #10 The West Rim, and Mott’s #1a (POE) Pearly Blue from out of that September 7 affair to consider. Tagg’s #9 Senada (3-1) exits a 9/2 upstate heat that has not yet produced any clues to the company she kept, but must be included today with Ramon riding back and 13f of sunrise semesters in tow. #4 Never Dream just missed in her debut with some trouble, but horses exiting that 9/3 race look rather tepid. ((NEW NOTE: With Far Isle scratching, add to a watch list and use Key Quality’s performance in the 5th as a clue to how the Contessa starter will fair when she does return to the entrries.))

Best Value: #1e Mott entry 5-1 2nd/6th
Most Likely: #9 Senada 3-1 7th
Next Best: #10 The West Rim 4-1 5th
Exotics Use: #2 Caminadora 7-2 WON

5th: MDN CLM, 2yo-F, 6f-IT (G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Ms. Thanksgiving 9-5 WON
Next Best: #7 Key Quality 7-2 8th
Best Value: #6 Kittylicious 6-1 6th
Exotics Use: #4 Lion Cub 5-1 2nd

6th: NYB-MSW, 2yo, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 In Te Domine 8-5 2nd
Best Value: #5 Neversaywhen 10-1 8th
Next Best: #2 Eire’s Run 4-1 4th
Super Add: #4 Silenced 10-1 WON

7th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #8 Triple Honor 8-1 WON
Most Likely: #7 Cappella Reale 3-1 7th
Next Best: #9 Bordeaux Bandit 2-1 4th
Super Add: #5 Fast Draw 5-1 6th

8th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Stevil 5-2 WON
Best Value: #3 Success Fee 5-1 4th
Next Best: #7 Luv Gov 7-2 6th
Super Add: #1 Almighty Silver 12-1 2nd

9th: MDN CLM, 3+, 7f-T (Super)

Best Value: #1 Everybodywantsone 5-1 4th
Most Likely: #7 Native Mambo 3-1 WON
Next Best: #6 Jove 6-1 2nd
Super Add: #9 Delta Miner 8-1 8th

<$200 P6 Play:

4: 1-9
5: 5-6-7
6: 5-7
7: 7-8
8: 2-3
9: 1-7

2x3x2x2x2x2 = 96 x $2 = $192

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 5-7
7: 7-8-9
8: 2-3-7
9: 1-6-7-9

2x3x3x4 = $72

Barry Abrams’ 30-1 firster in the nightcap provided a wild ending to the double carry at Santa Anita Friday, and netted a single patron the whole P6 pool of $787,000. Up to that point, the skein had been very similar to Thursday’s sequence with reasonable priced winners that would have been on many tickets, and the first five were all somewhere in my tabs including $11.40 Welken (Most Likely) and $15.00 Dextera (Best Value).

Though knocked out of the P6 chase on most tickets in the first leg by 4th choice ‘Super Add’ Don’t Forget Mug ($19.40), I had a few backup tickets live for a conso going into the 8th. The Abrams debut miss had worked nicely for her bow, but there weren’t any glaring ‘include me’ signs on her in a group that had a number of second timers whose first outs were OK.

Earlier at Belmont, the omission of Cavallo Pazzo from the 8th cost the $210 P4. But overall, it was a nice afternoon as the Arcadia action saw a string of exactas and trifectas and 3 rolling P3’s. Hope you did well! Belmont’s Jockey Club Gold Cup Day the obvious highlight today though wet weather threatens it and much of the Eastern half of the country.

BELMONT PARK

PRE-SCRATCHES

6th: 71st Beldame (G1), F&M-3+, 9f (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Music Note 2-5
Best Value: #1a (POE) Unbridled Belle 2-1

7th: 70th Vosburgh (G1), 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Fabulous Strike 1-1
Best Value: #1 Go Go Shoot 6-1
Next Best: #3 Munnings 7-2

8th: 32nd Flower Bowl (G1), F&M-3+, 10f-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Dynaforce 7-2
Next Best: #1 (POE) Carribean Sunset 5-2
Best Value: #7 Moneycantbuymelove 4-1
Super Add: #3 Pure Clan 3-1

9th: 33rd Joe Hirsch Turf Classic (G1), 3+, 12f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 (POE) Gio Ponti 6-5
Best Value: #4 Telling 10-1
Next Best: #8 Grand Couturier 5-2
Super Add: #3 Al Khali 12-1

10th: 91st Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1), 3+, 10f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Summer Bird 2-1
Next Best: #7 Quality Road 5-2
Best Value: #1 Sette E Mezzo 12-1
Super Add: #4 Tizway 15-1

11th: NYB-MSW, 3+, 1m-T (Super)

Most Likely: #3 Love and Havoc 5-1
Best Value: #1 (POE) Spa City Fever 6-1
Next Best: #4 Johannesbull 3-1
Super Add: #5 Pernice 8-1

OFF THE TURF: 3-14-8-13

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 1-5
8: 1-4-7
9: 1-4-8
10: 1-3-4-7

2x3x3x4 = $72

Good luck!
Steve

BELMONT PARKPRE-SCRATCHES

 

4th: NYB-MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #10 Moon Drop 5-2
Best Value: #6 Lyrical Bobcat 4-1
Next Best: #4 First Flute 7-2
Exotics Use: #2 Picnic Rock 5-1

5th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f-T (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #9 Bon Marie 2-1
Next Best: #1 (AE/POE) Midwatch 3-1
Best Value: #8 Vettriano 8-1
Super Add: #8 Riptide 4-1

6th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 6f-IT (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #10 Amelia the Cat 8-1
Most Likely: #4 Cat On a Quest 2-1
Next Best: #1a (POE) Amber’s Edge 5-1
Exotics Use: #3 Island Breeze 3-1

7th: Shopping for Love-NYB, 3yo-F, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)

Obvious key here will be Mother Russia and her ability to get away without pressure up front. Trio of multi-tactic Bush entrants leads one to think High Cry will go with the ML fave, with Cap the Thunder and stretchout player Elegant Bess potentially engaging the pace as well. Good betting affair challengingly situated for P6/P4 players..

Most Likely: #9 Akilina 6-1
Next Best: #6 Mother Russia 3-1
Best Value: #7 Elegant Bess 20-1
Super Add: #4 Soave 12-1

8th: S/HCP, 3+, 6f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Digger 5-2
Best Value: #1 Starforaday 5-1
Next Best: #7 Base Commander 6-1
Super Add: #4 Kaper Lake 8-1

9th: NYB-MSW, 2yo-F, 7f-OFF THE TURF (Super)

Most Likely: #4 Poppy Day 4-1
Best Value: #5 Precious Penny 12-1
Next Best: #9 Spirit of Rose 5-1
Super Add: #12 Great Gracie Dane 8-1

<$150 P6 Play:

4: 6-10
5: 9
6: 4-10
7: 6-9
8: 1-2-7
9: 4-5-9

2x1x2x2x3x3 = 72 x $2 = $144

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 1-3-4-10
7: 6-9
8: 1-2-7
9: 4-5-9

4x2x3x3 = $72

OAK TREE AT SANTA ANITA

PRE-SCRATCHES

3rd: CLM/N2L, 3+, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Waafi 3-1
Best Value: #2 Fiery Rebel 8-1
Next Best: #9 Olympio’s Jewel 4-1
Super Add: #6 Don’t Forget Muq 9-2

4th: MDN CLM, 3+, 8.5f (P5, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Ringolevio 5-2
Best Value: #1 Benjy’s Pride 20-1
Next Best: #7 Prize Play 9-2
Super Add: #9 Fortunate Victory 8-1

5th: CLM, F&M-3+, 6.5f-DHT (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Welken 7-2
Best Value: #10 Pokomoke 6-1
Next Best: #9 Silent Stalk 3-1
Super Add: #5 Hotrod Kelly 6-1

6th: MSW, 2yo, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Via Verde 9-5
Best Value: #3 Camp Victory 8-1
Next Best: #7 Macias 5-2
Super Add: #8 Cragmont 12-1

7th: CLM, 3yo-F, 1m-T (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Coatcheck Girl 3-1
Best Value: #6 Dextera 6-1
Next Best: #5 There Goes Gee Gee 7-2
Super Add: #9 Kinesiology 9-2

8th: Cal-MDN CLM, 2yo-F, 6f (Super, Super High 5)

Best Value: #7 Duck River 6-1
Next Best: #10 Word Association 3-1
Exotics Use: #8 Heavens a Raging 6-1
Super Add: #12 Creme Dela Suances 8-1
High 5 Play: #11 Top Seeded 8-1

<$200 P6 Play:

3: 2-3
4: 1-6-7-9
5: 3-9-10
6: 1-3
7: 2-6
8: 7

2x4x3x2x2x1 = 96 x $2 = $192

<$75 P4 Play:

5: 3-9-10
6: 1-3
7: 2-5-6
8: 7-8-10-12

3x2x3x4 = $72

Good luck!
Steve

Racing was as good as anticipated Wednesday, but it didn’t exactly offset the chalkfest at Belmont which was followed by excruciating big odds 2nd place finishes at Oak Tree. The Santa Anita season started out for me with a head bob photo beat of 16-1 Royal F J (Best Value 2nd choice) in the 6th, and a neck loss by 30-1 Best Value top tab Double Dip in the 7th. Brutal… The upside was the $16.40/$8.20 and $21.60/$10.60 PL-SH prices respectively if you bet either ATB. (I hope some of you did, because I needed wins to cash…)

After fave California Flag won the Gr. III Morvich, a bonus mutuel finally got up at Arcadia, and what a bonus mutuel it was: 78-1 Spartan Jet. The $157 winner tripped a $15,700 P4 ($1), $37,600 P6 conso and $47,900 P5 payout, as well as Thursday’s $32,600 Super High 5 and $87k P6 carryovers. Will not get to Santa Anita selections until later today, but I did look at Belmont from early on Thursday. Hope you did well yesterday!

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

2nd: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 7f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #3 Unrivaled Belle 5-1
Most Likely: #7 Uno Peso 4-1
Next Best: #4 Spina 5-1
Super Add: #8 Powder Princess 8-1

3rd: Quick Mischief, F&M-3+, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Spritely 7-5
Best Value: #1 Newport Harbour 8-1
Next Best: #6 Sea Chanter 8-5

4th: NYB-MSW, 2yo, 6f-IT (P6, P3, DD)

Best Value: #7 Reading Group 6-1
Most Likely: #1 Quick Money 1-1
Next Best: #5 Rapide One 10-1

5th: NYB-MSW, 2yo-F, 5.5f (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Stellaluce 5-2
Next Best: #2 Freud’s Notebook 3-1
Best Value: #11 Up Up Away 8-1
Super Add: #6 Lady Apple 12-1

<$75 P4 Play:

2: 3-4-7-8 ($2) 1-2-5-6 ($1)
3: 4
4: 1-5-7
5: 2-4

$3 Leg A includes: 4x1x3x2 = 24 x $2 = $48
$1 Leg A includes: 4x1x3x2 = $24

Total: $48 + $24 = $72

6th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 9f-IT (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Whirling Thunder 5-2
Best Value: #1 Veritable 8-1
Next Best: #5 Smart Enuf 2-1
Super Add: #2 Cardiff Road 4-1

7th: MDN CLM, 3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Very tough group to decipher..

Most Likely: #2 Le Royale 3-1
Best Value: #7 Dixie Frolic 12-1
Next Best: #9 Sao Sebah 6-1
Super Add: #10 St. Augustine 15-1

8th: OC/N3X, 3+, 6f-IT (DD, Super)

Love to see the great T. D. Vance back on the field of battle..

Most Likely: #5 Our Friend Harvey 4-1
Best Value: #4 Quietly Mine 5-1
Next Best: #3 T. D. Vance 4-1

9th: NYB-OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (Super)

Best Value: #8 Miss Stilleto 6-1
Most Likely: #10 Vivi’s Book 5-2
Next Best: #4 Cagey Girl 8-1
Super Add: #2 Paraiba 10-1

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 1-5-8
7: 2-6-7-9-10
8: 5
9: 2-3-4-8-10

3x5x1x5 = $75

OAK TREE AT SANTA ANITA PARK

PRE-SCRATCHES

3rd: CLM, F&M-3+, 8.5f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Sunny Peace 5-2
Best Value: #1 Enlightened Lady 8-1
Next Best: #5 Soldier Betty 4-1
Super Add: #2 Recess 7-2

4th: CLM, 3+, 1m-T (P5, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Soupy 7-2
Best Value: #1 Surf Town 4-1
Next Best: #4 Yes It’s a Cat 3-1
Super Add: #8 Nima’s Pad 15-1

5th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 5.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Hot Summer Breeze 6-5
Best Value: #4 A Clever Ten 8-1
Next Best: #7 Flash Dance 4-1
Super Add: #6 Daniella Roth 8-1

6th: S/ALW, 2yo, 6.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Peacenik 5-2
Next Best: #5 Winter Camp 9-5
Best Value: #2 Towser 20-1
Super Add: #3 At the Front 5-1

7th: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 1m-T (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Exquisite 9-2
Best Value: #1 Percia Fina 8-1
Next Best: #7 April Pride 4-1
Super Add: #8 Bel Air Sizzle 3-1

8th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 5.5f (Super, Super High 5)

Most Likely: #9 Annie’s Loaded 7-2
Best Value: #10 Skim Milk 6-1
Next Best: #8 Greek Advantage 6-1
Exotics Use: #6 Tribal Fire 9-2
High 5 Play: #11 September Soul 6-1

$200 P6 Play:

3: 1
4: 1-3-4
5: 1-4
6: 1-5
7: 1-5-7-8
8: 9-10

1x3x2x2x4x2 = 96 x $2 = $192

<$200 TicketMaker Multi-Ticket Plays:

1 $2.00 pick 6: 3 with 1,3 with 1 with 1,5 with 5 with 9 $8.00

2 $2.00 pick 6: 1,5 with 4 with 1 with 1,5 with 5 with 9 $8.00
3 $2.00 pick 6: 1,5 with 1,3 with 4 with 1,5 with 5 with 9 $16.00
4 $2.00 pick 6: 1,5 with 1,3 with 1 with 1,5 with 1,7 with 9 $32.00
5 $2.00 pick 6: 1,5 with 1,3 with 1 with 1,5 with 5 with 10 $16.00
6 $2.00 pick 6: 3 with 4 with 4 with 1,5 with 5 with 9 $4.00
7 $2.00 pick 6: 3 with 4 with 1 with 1,5 with 1,7 with 9 $8.00
8 $2.00 pick 6: 3 with 4 with 1 with 1,5 with 5 with 10 $4.00
9 $2.00 pick 6: 3 with 1,3 with 4 with 1,5 with 1,7 with 9 $16.00
10 $2.00 pick 6: 3 with 1,3 with 4 with 1,5 with 5 with 10 $8.00
11 $2.00 pick 6: 3 with 1,3 with 1 with 1,5 with 1,7 with 10 $16.00

12 $2.00 pick 6: 2 with 1,3 with 1 with 1,5 with 5 with 9 $8.00
13 $2.00 pick 6: 3 with 5,7,8 with 1 with 1,5 with 5 with 9 $12.00
14 $2.00 pick 6: 3 with 1,3 with 6 with 1,5 with 5 with 9 $8.00
15 $2.00 pick 6: 3 with 1,3 with 1 with 2,3 with 5 with 9 $8.00
16 $2.00 pick 6: 3 with 1,3 with 1 with 1,5 with 8 with 9 $8.00
17 $2.00 pick 6: 3 with 1,3 with 1 with 1,5 with 5 with 3,6 $16.00

Total: $196.00

<$75 P4 Play:

5: 1-4
6: 1-2-5
7: 1-5-7-8
8: 8-9-10

2x3x4x3 = $72

Good luck!
Steve