Rare Keeneland P6 carryover of consequence today ($44,745), and with Lex weather cold and rainy, you can expect a very fast poly strip. Chance all the races move to the ‘main’ as well. On top of the twists from the elements and possible surface switch, it is an extremely tough sequence anyway…

KEENELAND

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: MSW, 2yo, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Saluting Stormye 2-1 4th
Best Value: #10 Henceforth 6-1 11th
Next Best: #2 Down With Dixie 6-1 5th
Super Add: #6 Cheaper to Settle 12-1 9th

5th: CLM, 3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Band of Thunder 5-2 5th
Best Value: #3 Parioli’s Trick 10-1 3rd-DH
Next Best: #5 Ready’s Rocket 3-1 8th
Super Add: #1 Gandolph Finch 12-1 5th

6th: MSW, 2yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Impossible group..

Best Value: #10 Silver Craft 6-1 2nd
Most Likely: #4 P.L. Henry 5-1 5th
Next Best: #2 Exchange in Motion 5-1 11th
Super Add: #5 Fist of Rage 10-1 WON

7th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 9f-OTT (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Armstrong Mill 9-5 3rd
Best Value: #3 Squander 15-1 6th
Next Best: #11 Your Round 10-1 2nd
Super Add: #1 Younohowiam 50-1 5th

8th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 7f (DD, Super)

Unbelievably wide open ALW. Whatever you do, refuse to accept short numbers. If using ‘logical’ like the favorite, tie him up to prices..

Best Value: #10 Downtown Drifter 30-1 11th
Most Likely: #6 Consequence 9-5 3rd
Next Best: #9 Perfect for You 5-1 WON
Super Add: #7 Dr. Zic 5-1

9th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 6f (Super, Super High 5)

Best Value: #10 Belafonte 6-1 2nd
Most Likely: #12 Repenter 5-1 WON
Next Best: #7 Maria’s Charm 2-1 9th
Exotics Use: #5 Sherlock 15-1 7th
High 5 Play: #2 Autry 9-2 10th

<$200 P6 Play:

4: 3-10
5: 2-3-5
6: 10
7: 3-4
8: 6-7-9-10
9: 10-12

2x3x1x2x4x2 = 96 x $2 = $192

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 2-4-10
7: 3-4-11
8: 6-7-9-10
9: 5-7-10-12

3x3x4x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

Intense weekend action doesn’t let up as Columbus Day in New York is greeted with a $140,500 carryover! Races 7-10 on “At the Races” tonight as we recap the last couple of days!

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: S/HCP, 3+, 1m (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Tizsilk 8-5 2nd
Next Best: #4 More Than a Reason 7-5 WON
Best Value: #1 Unbridled Danger 10-1 7th
Super Add: $3 Smooth Wind 8-1 5th

$140,500 CARRYOVER STARTS

5th: NYB-MSW, 3+, 10f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #9 Ranger James 7-5 WON
Best Value: #1 Book 15-1 5th
Next Best: #6 Jacob’s Dream 7-2 4th
Super Add: #8 Pernice 5-1 2nd

6th: NYB-CLM/N3L, F&M-3+, 6f (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Beboblues Art 5-1 WON
Best Value: #4 Essex Ferry 12-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 Eastern Prime 3-1 6th
Super Add: #8 Fast Footnote 8-1 9th

7th: NYB-OC/N2X, 3+, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #1 Love My Mondays 5-1 10th
Most Likely: #3 Katskill Bay 4-1 4th
Next Best: #2 Tall Poppi 5-1 3rd
Super Add: #10 Motor Patrol 6-1 WON

8th: 17th Pebbles, 3yo-F, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Denomination 3-1 9th
Best Value: #5 Miss Blakely 20-1 7th
Next Best: #1 Maram 5-2 3rd
Super Add: #6 Legally Blanca 12-1 4th

9th: MDN CLM, 3+, 9f-IT (DD)

Most Likely: #7 Smart Selection 3-1 4th
Best Value: #4 The Cuff Shooter 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 Magnificent Max 7-2 5th
Exotics Use: #8 Royal Lord 15-1 8th

10th: NYB-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 7f-T (Super)

Most Likely: #7 Better Than Swiss 8-1 5th
Best Value: #8 Mythical Yarn 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Cap the Thunder 5-1 6th
Super Add: #4 More Oats Please 7-2 WON

<$100 P6 Play:

5: 1-6-9
6: 3-4
7: 1-3
8: 3
9: 4-7
10: 1-4-7-8

3x2x2x1x2x4 = 96 x $2 = $192

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 1-3
8: 1-3-5
9: 4-7
10: 1-2-4-6-7-8

2x3x2x6 = $72

Long, wild, surprising and even ridiculous afternoon Saturday, as some results left fans dreading, as opposed to anticipating, Breeders’ Cup. The Goodwood win by Gitano Hernando was not exactly a great advertisement for what lies ahead, at least on the ‘main’ track, at Arcadia in 26 days. Lots to cover and recap but yet another full day Sunday with a carryover at Belmont at more big stakes action at Keeneland and Santa Anita. Remington gets into the picture too today with a nice 3 pack of stakes on the OK City track’s biggest fall day.

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: Jerome H. (G2), 3yo, 1m (P3, DD) 

Most Likely: #3 Girolamo 8-5 WON
Next Best: #4 Kensei 7-5 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Burley’s Gold 3-1 2ndBest Value: #5 Helvi 6-1 2nd
Most Likely: #8 Cat’s Kitty 3-1 WON
Next Best: #6 Greece 4-1 3rd
Super Add: #4 Evil Genius 6-1 8th

Most Likely: #3 Girolamo 8-5 WON

$42k+ P6 CARRYOVER

5th: NYB-MSW, 2yo, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super) 

 

6th: OC/N1X, 3+, 7f-T (G/S, P3, DD, Super) 

Most Likely: #6 Fateh Field 7-5 3rd
Next Best: #7 Wall Street Wonder 7-2 4th
Best Value: #9 Rodman 5-1 2nd
Super Add: #4 Bad Action 8-1 WONBest Value: #1a Mrs. Stroud 20-1 9th
Next Best: #8 Neenie’s House 5-1 7th
Exotics Use: #5 Sea Road 5-1 2ndBest Value: #3 Devilishameye 20-1 5th
Most Likely: #9 Wittenberg Miss 3-1 11th
Next Best: #11 Royal Valentine 8-1 WON
Super Add: #6 Miss Saul 20-1 6th

 

7th: MSW, 2yo-F, 6f-IT (P4, P3, DD) 

Most Likely: #9 Rose Catherine 7-2 WON

Most Likely: #9 Rose Catherine 7-2 WON

8th: NYB-MSW, F&M-3+, 7f (P3, DD, Super) 

 

9th: OC/N2X, 3+, 8.5f-IT (DD, Super) 

Most Likely: #3 Pinckney Hill 2-1 4th
Best Value: #2 Storm Caller 10-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Picou 5-2 7th
Super Add: #8 Valtrus 8-1 WONMost Likely: #8 Fairy Wand 7-2 6th
Next Best: #5 Sachem Road 3-1 10th
Super Add: #7 Sweet Baby Blue 30-1 5th

 

10th: NYB-MSW, F&M-3+, 7f-T (Super) 

Best Value: #6 Song for Pupcake 4-1 WON

Best Value: #6 Song for Pupcake 4-1 WON

<$150 P6 Play: 

5: 5-6-8
6: 6-7-9
7: 9
8: 3-9
9: 2-3
10: 6-8

 

3x3x1x2x2x2 = 72 x $2 = $144

<$75 P4 Play: 

7: 1-5-8-9
8: 3-9
9: 2-3-7
10: 5-6-8

 

4x2x3x3 = $72

KEENELANDBrutal.. Admittedly have no clue here with glut of firsters..

POST-SCRATCHES

7th: MSW, 2yo-F, 6f (.50 P4, P3, DD, Super) 

 

Best Value: #6 Harlan’s Princess 10-1 6th
Most Likely: #2 No Such Word 3-1 8th
Next Best: #1 Heaven’s Grace 12-1 4th
Super Add: #5 Vacatur 15-1 3rd

8th: 19th Bourbon (G3), 2yo, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super) 

Most Likely: #4 Interactif 5-2 WON
Best Value: #11 Raging Wit 15-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Asphalt 5-1
Super Add: #8 Exhi 5-1

Most Likely: #4 Interactif 5-2 WON

9th: 54th Spinster (G1), F&M-3+, 9f (DD, Super) 

Most Likely: #7 Ginger Brew 5-1 5th
Next Best: #4 Proviso 9-2 WON-DQ’d to 2nd
Best Value: #1 Teamgeist 15-1 3rd
Super Add: #10 Indescribable 5-1 9th

 

$26k SUPER HIGH 5 CARRYOVERMost Likely: #5 Bum Bum 7-2 3rd
Next Best: #7 Gold d’Oro 5-2 5th
Best Value: #6 Caret 20-1 7th
Exotics Use: #11 Miss Rufus 12-1 6th
High 5 Play: #2 Sea Gull 3-1 11th

10th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 9f-T (Super, Super High 5) 

 

<$50 P4 Play: 

7: 1-2-5-6
8: 4-11
9: 1-4-7
10: 5-6-7

 

4x2x3x3 = 72 x .50 = $36

OAK TREE AT SANTA ANITABest Value: #2 Sabina Fay 5-1 8th
Most Likely: #3 Gumption 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #9 Fund Raiser 5-2 3rd
Super Add: #10 Miss McCall 10-1 WONBest Value: #3 Times Gone By 15-1 4th
Next Best: #1 Medici Code 8-1 2nd
Super Add: #5 Rendezvous 8-1 5th

PRE-SCRATCHES

6th: MSW, 2yo-F, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super) 

 

7th: 41st Clement Hirsch (G1), 3+, 10f-T (P3, DD, Super) 

Most Likely: #2 Precious Passion 3-1 WON

Most Likely: #2 Precious Passion 3-1 WON

8th: 25th Ancient Title (G1), 3+, 6f (DD, Super) 

Fun, and confusing, collection for this important BC Sprint prep..

 

Most Likely: #5 Gayego 3-1 WON
Best Value: #4 Red Arrow 15-1 10th
Next Best: #10 Square Eddie 8-1 6th
Super Add: #6 Crown of Thorns 5-1 2ndMost Likely: #3 Dadsalittleunusual 5-1 11th
Best Value: #2 Street Royale 8-16th
Next Best: #5 One Chin Again 8-1 8th
Exotics Use: #10 Bob Benoit 8-1 5th
High 5 Play: #7 Fight On 12-1 4th

$136,700+ SUPER HIGH 5 CARRYOVER

9th: CLM, 3+, 9f (Super, Super High 5) 

 

<$75 P4 Play: 

7: 2-3
8: 1-2-3-5-6-8
9: 4-5-10
10: 2-3

 

2x6x3x2 = $72

Friday was a third straight entertaining and profitable day as the Keeneland meet opener proved negotiable, at least this one day. Best Value second choices Alice’s Smart ($33.40) and Alcibiades heroine Negligee ($27.40) anchored a 5 race sequence of available P3’s that rolled to the tune of $423.50 (5th-7th), $213.60 (6th-8th), $783.20 (7th-9th) and $209 (8th-10th). Was also able to finally nail a lucrative .10 Super Spot Play too, seeing through Negligee as a key horse to the $208.84 score. Hope you did well to bankroll today’s incredible coast to coast action!

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: 60th Jamaica H. (G1), 3yo, 9f-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Courageous Cat 2-1 3rd
Best Value: #4 Boots Ahead 8-1 5th
Next Best: #6 Take the Points 5-2 WON
Super Add: #3 Grassy 6-1 4th

7th: CLM, 3+, 9f-IT (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Find the Wire 5-2 4th
Best Value: #2 Xodo 10-1 9th
Next Best: #1 Exton 6-1 5th
Super Add: #5 D’ Wildcard 3-1 2nd

8th: 62nd Frizette (G1), 2yo-F, 1m (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Nonna Mia 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #2 Devil May Care 6-1 WON
Next Best: #4 Awesome Maria 2-1 2nd
Super Add: #7 Worship the Moon 6-1 4th

9th: 138th Champagne (G1), 2yo, 1m (DD)

Best Value: #6 Homeboykris 6-1 WON
Most Likely: #3 Aspire 3-1 3rd
Next Best: #5 Dublin 8-5 5th
Exotics Use: #1 Super Saver 4-1 4th

10th: NYB-ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-T (Super)

Absolutely tremendous betting race..

Best Value: #7 J L Bernstein 15-1 7th
Most Likely: #5 Livin Large 9-2 WON
Next Best: #9 Quiet On the Tee 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #4 Globemaster 8-1 8th

<$75 P4 Play:

Taking big chance in opening leg, but tricky stakes and wide open finale demand the risk, with Find the Wire from Weaver-Prado the sequence’s best single opp..

7: 6
8: 2-3-4
9: 1-3-5-6
10: 2-4-5-7-9-10

1x3x4x6 = $72

KEENELAND

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: 13th Woodford (G3), 3+, 5.5f-T (PP6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Mr. Nightlinger 2-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Due Date 7-2 6th
Must Respect: #7 Silver Timber 5-2 WON
Super Add: #5 Bullet From Abroad 10-1 5th

6th: 29th TCA (G2), F&M-3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Informed Decision 3-5 WON
Next Best: #6 Carlsbad 5-1 2nd
Best Value: #4 Pious Ashley 12-1 5th
Super Add: #7 Selva 6-1 4th

7th: 12th First Lady (G1), F&M-3+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Forever Together 1-1 3rd
Best Value: #9 Superior Storm 12-1 7th
Next Best: #6 My Princess Jess 6-1 5th
Super Add: #8 Diamondrella 6-1 WON

8th: 96th Breeders’ Futurity (G1), 2yo, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #9 Hurricane Ike 15-1 11th
Most Likely: #2 Backtalk 4-1 8th
Next Best: #1 Dixie Band 5-1 10th
Super Add: #8 Aikenite 5-1 2nd

9th: 24th Shadwell Turf Mile (G1), 3+, 1m-T (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Mr. Sidney 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #6 Sterwins 8-1 5th
Next Best: #7 Justenuffhumor 5-2 6th
Super Add: #8 Tizdejavu 12-1 7th

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 6-8
7: 5-6-8-9
8: 1-2-7-8-9-14
9: 2-6-7

2x4x6x3 = 144 x .50 = $72

10th: ALW/N2L, 3+, 7f (Super, Super High 5)

Most Likely: #5 John Kelly 4-1 9th
Best Value: #8 Antitrust 9-2 2nd
Next Best: #1 Speight the Halo 3-1 8th
Exotics Use: #9 Grand Daddy 30-1 6th
High 5 Play: #4 More Than Willing 5-1 3rd

<$75 .50 P4 Play:

7: 5-9
8: 1-2-7-8-9-14
9: 2-6
10: 1-3-4-5-8-9

2x6x2x6 = 144 x .50 = $72

OAK TREE AT SANTA ANITA

PRE-SCRATCHES

4th: 33rd Yellow Ribbon (G1), F&M-3+, 10f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Magical Fantasy 8-5 WON
Best Value: #6 Charming Legacy 8-1 6th
Next Best: #4 Black Mamba 5-2 3rd
Super Add: #7 Visit 5-1 2nd

5th: Cal-MSW, 2yo-F, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #5 Evening Jewel 6-1 2nd
Most Likely: #10 Excellent News 8-5 WON
Next Best: #4 Stunning Ally 6-1 4th
Super Add: #3 Pocatello Wild Kat 20-1 8th

6th: 24th Oak Tree Mile (G2), 3+, 1m-T (P5, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #2 Skyrush 12-1 4th
Most Likely: #10 Whatsthescript 5-2 3rd
Next Best: #9 Cowboy Cal 2-1 WON
Super Add: #1 SCR

7th: 28th Goodwood (G1), 3+, 9f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Fascinating edition of this important Breeders’ Cup feeder event, and to be honest, none of the 10 would be an outright surprise. I’ll be fishing for biggest prices..

Best Value: #7 Parading 8-1 4th
Repeat Threat: #3 Richard’s Kid 8-1 3rd
Pace Player: #5 Tres Borrachos 12-1 9th
Mystery Horse: #8 Gitano Hernando 15-1 WON

8th: 17th Lady’s Secret (G1), F&M-3+, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Zenyatta 2-5 WON
Best Value: #1 Cocoa Beach 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Life Is Sweet 5-1 4th
Super Add: #8 Anabaa’s Creation 12-1

9th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m-T (DD, Super)

Another tremendous wagering opportunity..

Most Likely: #7 On Fire 8-1 2nd
Best Value: #5 Concerto’s Thunder 12-1 8th
Next Best: #2 Caspian 6-1 6th
Super Add: #4 Turf and Sky 20-1 10th

10th: MSW, 2yo, 6.5f (Super, Super High 5)

Best Value: #8 Brady Blue Eyes 6-1 4th
Most Likely: #7 Get My Fix 5-2 WON
Next Best: #5 Mr. Charlie 6-1 8th
Exotics Use: #1 The Skinny Man 3-1 9th
High 5 Play: #4 The Program 12-1 5th

<$150 & <$300 P6 Plays:

5: 5-10
6: 2-10
7: 3-7
8: 5 [1]
9: 2-5-7
10: 5-7-8

<$300: #1 Cocoa Beach/#5 Zenyatta in Leg D (2x2x2x2x3x3 = 144 x $2 = $288)

<$150: Single of #5 Zenyatta in Leg D (2x2x2x1x3x3 = 72 x $2 = $144)

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 3-7
8: 1-5
9: 2-4-5-7
10: 1-5-7-8

2x2x4x4 = $64

Thursday action at Belmont was fun and lucrative even though P4’s fell short. Single try of Sly (2nd in the 7th) in the late quad and pig-headed omission of Pletcher entry in the 4th in the early edition were the miscues, but there was lots of cashing throughout the afternoon to offset them. On top ‘Best Value’ Karakorum Elektra’s narrow photo score in the Memories of Silver returned a sharp $15.40 win price and capped three straight winners for the $73.75 early P3 ($1), which got the day off to a nice start.

Later, the 6th race became key to the mutuel returns when Australis Princess ($8.00-1), Mystic City ($8.30-1) and I Do That ($3.85-1) combined for a $500 ($1) triple. The two pricey top finishers were worthy of inclusion as pedigree plays, with ‘Princess’ being by Werblin, off to an amazing start with grass routers, and ‘Mystic’ haling from City Zip who gets his share of lawn lovers. In addition, Mike Ferraro, who trains the runner up, was a noteworthy 24% W’s on stretchouts of his charges. Hope you did well Thursday on what was as entertaining a mid-week card as you can find!

Keeneland opens today and note that cool, wet weather is the forecast. That typically makes for a tight polytrack…

KEENELAND

PRE-SCRATCHES

4th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Forest Trail 5-1 4th
Best Value: #2 Grassy Nellie 5-1 6th
Next Best: #5 Striking Dancer 7-2 3rd
Super Add: #11 Tight Precision 4-1 5th

5th: ALW/N2L, 2yo, 7f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Call Shot 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #6 Pegasus Prancer 5-1 4th
Next Best: #8 Gun Rock 3-1 5th
Super Add: #7 Liston 4-1 WON

6th: MSW, 2yo-F, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 SCR
Next Best: #12 Orchestrator 5-2 WON
Best Value: #11 Fugitive Angel 8-1 2nd
Super Add: #3 Cautionary Tale 6-1 4th

7th: ALW/N2L, F&M-3+, 7f (.50 P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Film Charm 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #5 Alice’s Smart 12-1 WON
Next Best: #8 Quite the Lady 6-1 8th
Super Add: #11 Diamond Song 5-1 4th

8th: 157th Phoenix (G3), 3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Excellent mix in this historic race, and while I love what he’s done all year, Capt. Candyman Can (5-2) may be too short a price to embrace on the surface. Fatal Bullet’s (2-1) main target comes in California next month. My Pal Charlie (8-1), last year’s winner Sing Baby Sing (10-1) and appear to be the ones most likely to run their races while providing the prices you like to see in sprint events. Added dashes of Southwestern flavor for heat comes in presence of consistent Greeley’s Conquest and Zia/PrM stake winner Ez Dreamer (Both 8-1)..

Best Value: #8 My Pal Charlie 8-1 8th
Most Likely: #4 Capt. Candyman Can 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #7 Fatal Bullet 2-1 WON
Super Add: #10 Sing Baby Sing 10-1 4th

9th: 58th Alcibiades (G1), 2yo-F, 8.5f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 She Be Wild 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #5 Negligee 12-1 WON
Next Best: #4 Beautician 5-2 5th
Super Add: #6 Screen Legend 20-1 10th

.10 SUPER SPOT PLAY: 3-5 with 3-4-5-6 with 3-4-5-6-7-9 with 1-3-4-5-6-7-9-10 (2x3x4x5 = 120 x .10 = $12)

$0.10 Superfecta (5-3-9-7) Paid $208.84

10th: ALW/N2X, F&M-3+, 1m-T (Super, Super High 5)

Best Value: #8 SCR
Most Likely: #5 Banker’s Choice 4-1
Next Best: #6 Redreamit 2-1 3rd
Super Add: #4 True Birkin 5-1 4th
High 5 Play: #11 Project Rose 5-1 WON

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 3-5
8: 3-4-7-8-10
9: 3-4-5-6-9
10: 5-6-8

2x5x5x3 = 150 x .50 = $75