Had adventurous afternoon at Keeneland Thursday falling short on the P6/P4, but making money with bonus priced winners Dashel ($20.80 as Best Value 5th race 2nd choice) and Agastache ($19.40 on top as Best Value in the 6th). Sequence also generated $189.30 P3 with obvious Ramsey giveaway winner Workinonthrailroad ($2.80) starting things in the 4th. I utterly whiffed on $9.20 My Jen from Kenneally in the 7th, which short-circuited the multi-race efforts completely. The Belmont spot play Tempest Storm ran well at 10-1 in the 5th, tiring in deep stretch to be third after setting all the pace. Hope you did well.

Keeneland C/O swelled to $57k for Friday and is the focus on what is a “Ladies Day” P6 (All filly/mare events), but note that Belmont ($30k) and Santa Anita ($55k) ended up with sextet jackpots as well!

KEENELAND

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: S/ALW, 2yo-F, 6.5f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Chantilly Nayla 5-2 WON
Next Best: #4 Ravinaboutgreatnes 4-1 4th
Best Value: #3 Bwana Z 6-1 2nd
Super Add: #8 Dragonville 8-1 3rd

6th: MSW, 2yo-F, 9f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Protesting 4-1 WON
Best Value: #8 Saint Amore 6-1 9th
Next Best: #5 Chimayo 3-1 10th
Super Add: #2 Primrose Hill 5-1 5th

7th: Valley View (G3), 3yo-F, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Kiawah Cat 9-2 3rd
Best Value: #7 Bluegrass Princess 6-1 WON
Next Best: #5 Silver Reunion 3-1 8th
Super Add: #1 Rex Regina 10-1 9th

8th: OC/N3X, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #12 Newport Harbour 12-1 8th
Most Likely: #10 Northern Belle 4-1 7th
Next Best: #3 Nursery Rhyme 4-1 3rd
Super Add: #5 Sheltered 8-1 9th

9th: Valley View (G3), 3yo-F, 8.5f-T (DD, Super)

Best Value: #12 Cumulonimble 12-1 6th
Most Likely: #6 Keertana 7-2 3rd
Next Best: #5 Forest Uproar 10-1 8th
Super Add: #9 Aurora Lights 5-1 10th

10th: CLM, F&M-3+, 7f (Super, Super High 5)

Best Value: #3 After Dark 12-16th
Most Likely: #4 SCR
Next Best: #12 This Way Home 12-1 4th
Exotics Use: #2 She’s Yummy 7-2 7th
High 5 Play: #8 Sweet Gladys 12-1 2nd

<$200 P6 Play:

5: 2
6: 4-8
7: 5-6-7
8: 10-12
9: 5-6-9-12
10: 3-12

1x2x3x2x4x2 = 96 x $2 = $192

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 5-6-7
8: 3-5-10-12
9: 5-6-9-12
10: 2-3-12

3x4x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72

Talked up but then abandoned Boxitup in Belmont 5th Wednesday, a move that cost an opportunity to be P6 live going into the nightcap. Third choice won that quashing P4 play and conso try, and despite rather chalky result, still felt like I missed a quality opportunity to hit. Hope you did well with the other solid results.

Keeneland P6 clicked up another 50% to $33k for Thursday, but still might not be that approachable given the consistently quirky Lexington outcomes. Thoughts below, but with insanely deep G3 Sycamore in the mix, P3/P4 plays may be the prudent call. Featured Knickerbocker (G3) at Belmont looks like Proudibnsky’s race to lose, but there are some pricey exotics players to consider. One interesting price at NY as well today…

KEENELAND

PRE-SCRATCHES

4th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Workingontherailroad 1-1 WON
Best Value: #3 Cabazon 10-1 7th
Next Best: #5 Twisting Road 6-1 4th
Super Add: #11 Six Shots 6-1 2nd

5th: ALW/C, 3yo-F, 5.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Starfish Bay 8-5 3rd
Best Value: #2 Dashel 10-1 WON
Next Best: #4 Brezing Rain 5-2 4th
Super Add: #1 She’s Extreme 12-1 10th

6th: OC/N3X, 3+, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Very confusing group.. Will take flyer that Agastache gets easy early lead and keeps going..

Best Value: #1 Agastache 5-1 WON
Most Likely: #6 Quietly Mine 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #4 Vicarian 4-1 4th
Super Add: #2 Free Brave 7-2 6th

7th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Afleet Maggi 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #1 Encore Saritta 6-1 4th
Next Best: #7 Attempt to Name 8-1 3rd
Super Add: #3 Lunar Mist 12-1 8th

8th: 15th Sycamore (G3), 3+, 12f-T (DD, Super)

Thoroughly entertaining race.. Use some prices..

Best Value: #11 Gentleman Chester 8-1
Most Likely: #9 Cloudy’s Knight 3-1 WON
Next Best: #12 Winchester 7-2 2nd
Super Add: #5 Tiger Woodman 20-1

9th: MDN CLM, 2yo, 6f (Super, Super High 5)

Most Likely: #6 Turwada 7-2 7th
Best Value: #10 Drink With Pride 6-1 8th
Next Best: #4 Mort’s Legacy 5-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 SCR
High 5 Play: #11 Hang ‘Em 20-1 11th

<$200 P6 Play:

4: 1-3
5: 2-3
6: 1-6
7: 1-4
8: 9-11-12
9: 6-10

2x2x2x2x3x2 = 96 x $2 = $192

<$75 P4 Play:

6: ALL
7: 1-4
8: 5-8-9-11-12
9: 6-10

7x2x5x2 = 140 x .50 = $70

BELMONT — SPOT PLAY

5th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6f-IT (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

BEST VALUE: #9 TEMPEST STORM 12-1: Contessa-Winning Move filly looks overlaid at number as she circles back towards best efforts mid-summer which came over this strip. Expect performance worth keying around.. 3rd
Most Likely: #8 Granted Tiger 3-1 4th
Next Best: #2 West Ocean 8-1 WON
Super Add: #1 More to the Story 9-2 6th

Hot Cha Cha’s upset win in the QEII Cup at Keeneland Saturday keyed the hit of the $1,156 P4 which covered the afternoon’s action, cleaned up all of the previous 3 days miscues, and left a little something besides. Hope you did well over the weekend. $32k BEL and $23k KEE carryovers to start the week with several graded stakes highlighting the action as the racing week commences.

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: MDN CLM, 2yo-F, 7f-T (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Take a Vow 7-2 WON
Best Value: #1e Sciacca entry 8-1 4th/6th
Next Best: #6 Settling Seas 15-1 2nd

5th: CLM, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Very tough group. Trip will decide..

Best Value: #9 Inter Gallactic 6-1 7th
Most Likely: #6 Double Dinghy Day 3-1 5th
Next Best: #4 Hogan Beach 7-2 3rd
Super Add: #8 Bella Attrice 4-1 6th

6th: NYB-MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

About as weak a group as can be assembled..

Best Value: #4 Moon Drop 9-2 3rd
Most Likely: #2 Out Nice Them 4-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Badgette 5-2 WON
Super Add: #9 Basketwoman 3-1 6th

7th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #10 Smart Enuf 4-1 WON
Best Value: #4 Burnished Copper 15-1 3rd
Next Best: #12 Bold Vindication 6-1 7th
Exotics Use: #3 Live On the Edge 8-1 4th

8th: Athenia (G3), F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (DD)

Intriguing betting affair with 6-5 fave Belle Allure hardly a ‘lays-over’ against several rock-solid fillies and mares including Schosberg’s ’08 winner of this event..

Most Likely: #4 Belle Allure 6-5 WON
Best Value: #6 Cable 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #7 Kristi With a K 5-1 2nd

9th: CLM, 3+, 7f-T (Super)

Best Value: #4 Masterofthehouse 8-1 4th
Most Likely: #2 Persian 7-2 3rd
Next Best: #1 Sydney Road 3-1 WON
Super Add: #9 Wonderous Day 15-1 6th

<$200 P6 Play:

4: 1-5
5: 4-6-8-9
6: 1-2-4-9
7: 10
8: 4-6-7
9: 4

2x4x4x1x3x1 = 96 x $2 = $192

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 1-2-4-9
7: 4-10-12
8: 4-6-7
9: 2-4

4x3x3x2 = $72

Eclectic day of racing around North America with the premium lawn events at Toronto ($2,000,000 G1 Pattison Canadian International) and Far Hills, NJ ($250,000 G1-NSA Grand National Hurdle Championship). Calder’s Festival of the Sun has an All-Stakes P4 and more, while Belmont and Keeneland (Perryville/QE II Challenge Cup) offer their large pool P4’s. The one proviso on all the action Saturday is the cool, wet weather that has threatened most of the Northeast corridor all week.

CALDER RACE COURSE

POST-SCRATCHES

7th: My Dear Girl, 2yo-F, 8.5f (.50 P4, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Winsockie 4-1 5th
Best Value: #5 Tillie the Tigress 8-1 4th
Next Best: #1 Joanie’s Catch 9-5 2nd
Super Add: #6 Sweetlalabye 5-2 WON

8th: Calder Oaks, 3yo-F, 9f-T (P3, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Providanza 2-1 7th
Best Value: #4 Fire Water 8-1 8th
Next Best: #3 Royal Card 5-2 5th
Super Add: #7 Chary 6-1 WON

9th: In Reality, 2yo, 8.5f (P3, Super)

Best Value: #3 Thank You Philippe 4-1 2nd
Most Likely: #6 Jackson Bend 8-5 WON
Next Best: #4 Bim Bam 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #8 Allez Reef 6-1 4th

10th: Calder Derby (G3), 3yo, 9f-T (P3, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Sal the Barber 9-5 WON
Best Value: #7 Quiet Emarati 20-1 4th
Next Best: #6 Grand Cash 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #9 Pound Foolish 12-1 6th

<$25 P4 Play:

7: 1-4-5-6
8: 3-4-6
9: 3-6
10: 3-7

4x3x2x2 = 48 x .50 = $24

11th: Spend a Buck (G3), 3+, 8.5f (P3, Super)

Most Likely: #9 Motovato 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #12 Colonial Causeway 8-1 5th
Next Best: #10 Mambo Meister 4-1 WON
Super Add: #2 Temo’s Dream 6-1 6th

BELMONT PARK

ALL RACES OFF THE TURF (7:45am)

POST-SCRATCHES

7th: CLM, 3+, 1m (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Theartofcompromise 8-5 WON
Best Value: #4 Top Leader 8-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Lofty Banner 6-1 5th
Super Add: #6 El Borracho 4-1 2nd

8th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 7f-OFF THE TURF (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #13 Stormzapper 3-1 6th
Best Value: #10 San Naa 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #8 Bohemia Street 3-1 WON
Exotics Use: #6 Castle Harbor 12-1 7th

9th: S/ALW, 3+, 7f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Dream Again 3-1 WON
Best Value: #7 SCR
Next Best: #8 Banking Holiday 5-2 5th
Super Add: #2 Cires 5-1 8th

10th: MSW, 2yo, 7f-OFF THE TURF (Super)

Best Value: #8 Man Card 15-1 4th
Most Likely: #12 Quiet All American 6-1 8th
Next Best: #3x Don Cavallo 5-1 9th
Super Add: #13 Highveldt Storm 8-1 3rd

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 2-4
8: 6-8-10-13
9: 6-7-8
10: 3-8-12

2x4x3x3 = $72

FAR HILLS

PRE-SCRATCHES

4th: Foxbrook Champion Hurdle, 4+, 20f-Nat’l Fences (WPS, Exa, Tri)

Most Likely: #3 Tricky Me 2-1 3rd
Best Value: #5 Terpsichorean 4-1 4th
Next Best: #6 Left Unsaid 3-1 WON
Exotics Use: #8 Nationbuilder 8-1 7th

5th: Grand National Hurdle (G1), 4+, 21f-Nat’l Fences (WPS, Exa, Tri)

Best Value: #9 Arcadius 15-1 DNF
Most Likely: #3 Pierrot Lunaire 9-5 5th
Next Best: #4 Three Carat 6-1 9th
Exotics Use: #2 Sweet Shani 8-1 7th

KEENELAND

POST-SCRATCHES

7th: 11th Perryville (G3), 3yo, 7f (.50 P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Warrior’s Reward 6-5 6th
Best Value: #7 His Greatness 10-1 7th
Next Best: #1 El Brujo 5-2 WON
Super Add: #6 Not for Silver 3-1 2nd

8th: MSW, 2yo-F, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Cast Call 3-1 10th
Next Best: #7 Star Recruit 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #10 Elarose 8-1 8th
Super Add: #12 Connie and Michael 12-1 WON

9th:26th Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup (G1), 3yo-F, 9f-T (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Gozzip Girl 6-5 3rd
Best Value: #3 Hot Cha Cha 8-1 WON
Next Best: #2 Miss World 3-1 4th
Super Add: #6 Lady Shakespeare 6-1 5th

10th: MSW, 3+, 9f (Super, Super High 5)

Most Likely: #1e Darley entry 7-2 WON/5th
Best Value: #3 Spell 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #6 Wild Entry 3-1 8th
Super Add: #7 Tizzam 8-1 4th
High 5 Play: #2 Capriva Pass 10-1 6th

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 1-3-7
8: 4-7-10-12
9: 3-4
10: 1-2-3-6-7-10

3x4x2x6 = 144 x .50 = $72

.50 CENT Pick 4 (1-12-3-1) Paid $1,156.10

WOODBINE

PRE-SCRATCHES

8th: 37th Nearctic (G2), 3+, 6f-T (P4, P3, Super)

Most Likely: #11 Jungle Wave 5-2 3rd
Next Best: #1 Field Commission 12-1 WON
Best Value: #5 Legal Move 20-1 10th
Super Add: #7 Chamberlain Bridge 4-1 7th

9th: 54th E. P. Taylor (G1), F&M-3+, 10f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #1 Treat Gently 8-1 6th
Most Likely: #2 Rainbow View 8-5 2nd
Next Best: #6 Look Here 3-1 7th
Super Add: #8 Salve Germania 6-1 5th

10th: 72nd Pattison Canadian International (G1), 3+, 12f-T (Super)

Best Value: #3 Quijano 6-1 8th
Most Likely: #5 Marsh Side 7-2 4th
Next Best: #4 Just as Well 6-1 5th
Super Add: #7 Jukebox Jury 5-2 2nd

11th: ON-MSW, 3+, 7f (Super)

Best Value: #2 Last Century 15-1 13th
Most Likely: #5 Simply Bold 3-1 WON
Next Best: #9 Trail Bay 4-1 6th
Super Add: #7 Northern Shore 15-1 4th

@$75 P4 Play:

8: 1-11
9: 1-2
10: 3-4-5-6-7
11: 2-5-7-9

2x2x5x4 = $80

Good luck!
Steve

As anticipated, Keeneland’s Wednesday carryover card proved too tough for anyone to tab more than 4 winners, and an $85,000 sextet pool awaits our thoughts today. Was at least able to offset the P6/P4 investments with the excellent 6th race exacta of $216 ($2) that featured Fist of Rage and Silver Craft in a photo. Equally tough card today at Lexington, but it only takes one or two daily scores at this meet to keep you healthy. Hope you did OK Wednesday and are looking forward to this afternoon’s action!

KEENELAND

POST-SCRATCHES

3rd: ALW/C, F&M-3+, 8.5f (OFF THE TURF)T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Closeout 7-5
Next Best: #6 Lady Carlock 5-2
Best Value: #5 Drop a Line 5-1

$85k CARRYOVER STARTS HERE..

4th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 It’s Never to Late 7-2
Best Value: #10 Soto Cat 15-1
Next Best: #4 Just Julian 3-1
Super Add: #3 Jamaludin 7-2

5th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Sidle 5-1
Best Value: #3 Honchis’n Ponchis 5-1
Next Best: #2 Obsequious 5-2
Super Add: #4 Magic Wand 6-1

6th: MSW, 2yo-F, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #10 Rapid Racer 9-2
Best Value: #8 Bonita Donita 5-1
Next Best: #3 Hunt for Candie 3-1
Super Add: #5 Sylvan Saint 15-1

7th: ALW/N2X, 3+, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #9 Golden Country 10-1
Most Likely: #4 Compromise 3-1
Next Best: #10 Bergman 10-1
Super Add: #2 Klassi Berti 6-1

8th: Jessamine, 2yo-F, 8.5f (OFF THE TURF) (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Smart Seattle 5-2
Best Value: #2 Whydah 8-1
Next Best: #7 Hatheer 3-1
Super Add: #3 House of Grace 7-2

9th: MDN CLM, 3+, 6.5f (Super, Super High 5)

Most Likely: #5 Trois Desir 3-1
Best Value: #4 Coughsgone 10-1
Next Best: #6 Anchor Dancer 5-1
Exotics Use: #10 Emerald Crescent 6-1
High 5 Play: #8 Good Prospecting 7-2

<$200 P6 Play:

4: 2-4-10
5: 1-2-3-4
6: 8-10
7: 4-9
8: 2-5
9: 5

3x4x2x2x2x1 = 96 x $2 = $192

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 3-8-10
7: 2-4-9-10-11
8: 2-5
9: 4-5-6-8-10

3x5x2x5 = 144 x .50 = $75

Good luck!
Steve