TODD WINS, I LOSE: ‘Todd Pletcher Day’ at Gulfstream as powerhouse barn bested the Hallandale oval in 3 of 4 races between the 5th-8th, including ‘catch me if you can’ gambit by Drover ($10.80) in the 7th. Short priced I’ll Take Two ($4.00) and Uwannapieceofthis ($7.00) swiped the 5th and 8th for Johnny V. and “TAP”, and as anyone who follows my selections probably realizes by now, when Pletcher wins, it is often without my money. Now that his barn has heated back up after a lengthy drought, his horses will again be invariably overbet. I don’t mind including the chalky ones that demand inclusion, but I’m happy to bet against the outfit if possible. It was notable yesterday that Frank Alexander and Javy Castellano took a clue from Pletcher-Velasquez win with Drover, as Lakeside Chapel ($17.40) was sent winging in the nightcap too and held on to nab his diploma. Hope you did OK Friday.

BIG WEEKEND AND NO FOOTBALL DISTRACTIONS… UNLESS YOU COUNT THE PRO BOWL AS FOOTBALL:Great weekend of action as Sunshine Millions and Magna 5 return to the landscape Saturday, while Santa Anita ended the day with a $62k carryover to boot! And Sunday is going to be particularly good with a fabulous card in South Florida featuring the chock full ‘o fillies Forward Gal (G2) and the G1 Santa Monica highlighting the Arcadia slate.

ALBANY MOVES AND THE HEAVENS WEEP: Yes, you heard right! It appears we finally have a vendor to build and operate the Aqueduct VLT parlor as Governor Paterson tabbed ‘Aqueduct Entertainment Group’ as the franchise operator for the ‘9 years in the making’ racino makeover. Hallelujah! 30 days to hammer out the agreement apparently and perhaps 6 months to get the initial 3,000 (of 4,500) one-armed bandits installed. There is certainly going to be some grumbling from losing bidders, and bitter Penn Gaming already said earlier this week they are surprised the deal was heading to New York-based entities. Really? They were surprised that the State of New York was more interested in giving this lucrative contract for construction and revenue to New York-based business interests? What planet are these Penn Gaming people from exactly? Why shouldn’t this contract go to interests from within the state instead of carpet-baggers?

GULFSTREAM

PRE-SCRATCHES

6th: MSW, 3yo, 1m (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Gothics Peak 5-2 6th
Next Best: #6 First Dude 3-1 WON
Best Value: #5 The Director 6-1 2nd
Super Add: #3 Marching Tune 8-1 4th

7th: ALW/N1X, F&M-4+, 8.5f-Inner Turf (P4, P3, DD, Super)

#14 (AE) Cruisin’nthebridle (4-1) a use should she get in..

Most Likely: #5 Flying Spur 3-1 5th
Next Best: #11 Speak Easy Gal 4-1 WON
Best Value: #2 Miss M V P 15-1 6th
Super Add: #1 (POE) Rosie’s Princess 15-1 Eased

8th: 8th Sunshine Millions Sprint, CA/FL 4+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Pashito the Che 8-5 2nd
Next Best: #6 This Ones for Phil 9-5 WON
Best Value: #1 Machismo 5-1 6th
Super Add: #3 Accredit 6-1 4th

(MAGNA 5 LEG B) 9th: 8th Sunshine Millions Distaff, CA/FL F&M-4+, 9f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Sweet Repent 2-1 WON
Best Value: #6 Even Road 20-1 3rd
Next Best: #7 Jessica is Back 9-5 2nd
Super Add: #8 Scolara 12-1 6th

(MAGNA 5 LEG D) 10th: 8th Sunshine Millions Turf, CA/FL 4+, 9f-Outer Turf (Super)

SCR #9 Wicked Style & likely #3 Duke of Mischief..

Most Likely: #8 Soldier’s Dancer 8-5 4th
Best Value: #4 Bad Action 10-1 6th
Next Best: #11 Jet Propulsion 4-1 WON
Super Add: #7 Fearless Eagle 12-1 8th

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 1-2-5-11
8: 1-4-6
9: 4-6-7
10: 4-8

4x3x3x2 = $72 (Or $36 for .50)

SANTA ANITA

PRE-SCRATCHES

(MAGNA 5 LEG C) 6th: 8th Sunshine Millions F&M Sprint, CA/FL 4+, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

As discussed on ATR, a brutally deep and potentially chaotic race..

Most Likely: #10 Dubai Majesty 4-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Miss McCall 9-2 4th
Best Value: #4 Dotsy Jean 12-1 3rd
Super Add: #7 Libor Lady 6-1 11th

(MAGNA 5 LEG E) 7th: 8th Sunshine Millions F&M Turf, CA/FL F&M-4+, 9f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Tight Precision 7-2 WON
Next Best: #1 Closeout 4-1 4th
Best Value: #3 Pretty Unusual 6-1 3rd
Super Add: #4 You Lift Me Up 8-1 5th

8th: 8th Sunshine Millions Classic, CA/FL 4+, 9f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 The Usual Q. T. 5-2 9th
Best Value: #4 Palladio 30-1 2nd
Next Best: #11 Acclamation 10-1 5th
Super Add: #9 Bold Chieftan 6-1 WON

9th: ALW/N1X, 4+, 6.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Red Sun 8-5 WON
Best Value: #10 Hidden Blessing 8-1 5th
Next Best: #8 Atticus Jack 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #1 Wolgan Valley 12-1 4th

10th: S/ALW, 4+, 6f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Bullfighter 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #8 Scofield Barracks 8-1 WON
Next Best: #1 Proud Hillbilly 7-2 6th
Super Add: #6 Exile 8-1 5th

11th: MDN CLM, 4+, 5.5f (Super, Super High 5)

Most Likely: #4 High Tide Rising 5-2 WON
Best Value: #5 Don’t Answer 8-1 4th
Next Best: #6 Chailepis 3-1
Super Add: #8 Stake a Claim 5-1
High 5 Play: #3 Ol’dogtown 6-1 3rd

<$200 P6 Play:

6: 3-10
7: 1-2
8: 4-7-9-10-11
9: 2
10: 1-2-5-6-8
11: 4

2x2x5x1x5x1 = 100 x $2 = $200

$2 Pick 6 Conso (12/2/9/2/8/4) Paid $175.00 x 2 = $350.00

<$75 P4 Play:

8: 4-7-9-10-11
9: 2-8-10
10: 1-2-5-6-8
11: 4

5x3x5x1 = $75

$2 Pick 4 (9/2/8/4) Paid $472.30

Finally was able to nail down a substantive hit Thursday as late P4 went the right way for a modest but welcome $333. Multi-day P6 carryover sequence, which returned a robust $19,420, was absolutely within reach with more clever structure or larger investment. All 6 of the skein’s winners were somewhere in the selections yesterday, but the $192 play (4 of 6) was unhinged by my uncertainty over the merits of certain-to-be-favored Fitzaslew in the 7th. I used 4 there to get to the 2-1 winner, and had I been more confident in the first-off-the-claim DiBona runner, it had the potential to open up multiple to the 2 that were missed: 3rd choice “Next Best” Missy Miner in the 5th and 4th choice “Super Add” Phoenix Force in the 6th. The good news was that for a second day in a row I felt like I had the right reads on races, and solid rolling P3’s and several nice exotic hits were available within the tabs. Hope you did well! Glance at the GP P4 is below with much greater anticipation for Saturday’s Sunshine Millions and Magna 5 action!

Good luck to the 301 DRF National Handicapping Championship contestants at the Red Rock today and tomorrow. We’ll try to get an update or two in tonight on ATR!

GULFSTREAM PARK

PRE-SCRATCHES

6th: MSW, 3yo, 1m (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Prestidigitation 3-1 WON
Best Value: #2 Raised for Speed 6-1 7th
Next Best: #6 Georgian 5-2 3rd
Super Add: #4 Mr. Madison 6-1 6th

7th: ALW/N1X, 3yo, 1m-Inner Turf (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 On Vacation 5-2 7th
Best Value: #7 Three Deadly Sins 8-1 8th
Next Best: #5 Becky’s Kitten 3-1 4th
Super Add: #1 Drover 6-1 WON

8th: ALW/N1X, 4+, 1m (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Jet Set Vinny 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #1 Sky’s the Limit 6-1 5th
Next Best: #8 Ziegfield 8-1 3rd
Super Add: #10 U S Treasury 10-1 7th

9th: MSW, 3yo-F, 1m-Inner Turf (Super)

Most Likely: #12 Inner Groove 7-2 4th
Best Value: #3 SCR
Next Best: #8 Portend 6-1 3rd
Super Add: #5 Promising Vow 10-1 7th

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 1-2-6
7: 4-5-7
8: 1-3-8-10
9: 3/SCR-5-8-12

3x3x4x3 = 108 x .50 = $54

Gulfstream carryover doubled past $68k Wednesday via a sequence that had those tough-but-not-impossible types winners that just kept accruing. In fact, given the victor’s prices and spots in the wagering pecking order, it’s impressive that there were some $4,025 consos for 5 of 6:

4th: Sophisticatedevent (3rd choice-$5.90) $13.80
5th: B L’s Tsumani (4th choice-$6.20) $14.40
6th: Sr. Henry (5th choice-$7.10) $16.20
7th: Havanadaydream (6th choice-$12.60) $27.20
8th: Candy Cane (Favored-$2.40) $6.80
9th: Mutiny (2nd choice-$4.90) $11.80

The morning line situation at Hallandale continues to be laughable, and feature race heroine Candy Cane, (6-1 ML 4th choice, off as the 5-2 favorite), was just another example. If you don’t make your own line, you are probably best off ignoring the Gulfstream ML completely. Those who say the accuracy of the ML shouldn’t matter in your play miss the portion of the equation where the psyche of ticket-building enters into it. Not everyone can place bets as the day unfolds with the ability to board watch and evaluate based on the reshuffling of the deck on the toteboard. And if you think you are singling a slightly daring horse on your P3, P4 or P6 ducat based on the ML, it affects how you build the rest of your ticket. Now whales and highly-experienced players may not be affected by this mundanity, but I guarantee that “weekend players” and moderately experienced punters are absolutely being confused or questioning their decisions because of the hopelessly inaccurate ML’s being offered by the GP oddsmaker.

Today’s P6 is challenging of course but seems approachable. I had a few spot hits yesterday and kept the losses reasonable, and hope you did OK. The full fields and oddly varied race conditions are making GP tough so far, but I get the feeling with Sunshine Millions ahead Saturday, that the lucrative hits are within reach. Have started the year off particularly poorly and lost a lot of money since Christmas, so with the Magna 5 and the best of the winter racing season arriving, the time is now to get going!

GULFSTREAM PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

3rd: OC/N3X, F&M-4+, 8.5f-Outer Turf (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Forest Trail 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #1 Mystic Miracle 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Cavan Thunder 6-1 5th
Super Add: #4 Becky’s Exchange 15-1 6th

4th: MDN CLM, F&M-4+, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Obviously, with a group of proven “can’t win” types, you need to gravitate to the FTS (first time starters) and ones who haven’t established that they are hopeless.

Most Likely: #5 Wendy’s Wonder 4-1 6th
Best Value: #10 Gibson Crystal 8-1 WON
Next Best: #6 Can’t Stop Lovin 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #9 Gadamis 12-1 3rd

$1 Exacta (10-6) Paid $17.00
$1 Trifecta (10-6-9) Paid $118.30

5th: CLM/N3L, F&M-4+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #2 Sharper Lisa 6-1 9th
Most Likely: #9 Magic Tune 3-1 12th
Next Best: #10 Missy Miner 4-1 WON
Super Add: #4 Prime Precision 6-1 4th

6th: CLM, 3yo, 1m-Inner Turf (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Favorites from Lynch (#3/4-1) and Maker (#10/7-2) are absolutely no better than several here, and like yesterday with the ordinary Florentino, you can protect in multis but swing for the fences using prices within the race..

Best Value: #1 Phil the Thrill 10-1 8th
Most Likely: #4 Mint Maker 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #9 Big Blue Streaker 8-1 6th
Super Add: #11 Phoenix Force 10-1 WON

7th: CLM/N2L, 4+, 1m (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #5 Macho Grande 10-1 3rd
Most Likely: #7 Scorpion Strike 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Johannesburg Place 8-1 4th
Super Add: #2 Fitzaslew 3-1 WON

8th: OC/C, F&M-4+, 1m-Inner Turf (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Celtic Princess 5-2 4th
Next Best: #5 Wasted Tears 3-1 WON
Best Value: #4 Savoir Bien 4-1 2nd

9th: CLM, F&M-4+, 8.5f-Outer Turf (Super)

Most Likely: #5 Road Track’s Dream 4-1 WON
Best Value: #4 Star Emerald 10-1 5th
Next Best: #8 Zubani 6-1 9th
Super Add: #7 Gator Track’s 20-1 8th

<$200 P6 Play:

4: 5-10
5: 2-9
6: 1-4
7: 2-5-6-7
8: 1-4-5
9: 5

2x2x2x4x3x1 = 96 x $2 = $192

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 1-3-4-9-10-11
7: 2-5-6-7
8: 1-4-5
9: 4-5

6x4x3x2 = 144 x .50 = $72

$0.50 Pick 4 (11/2,9/5/5,6,10,12) Paid $333.25

GULFSTREAM PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: CLM, F&M-4+, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #10 #10 Joan’s Royal Dawn 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #6 Pleasant Honoree 5-1 6th
Next Best: #2 Sophisticatedevent 4-1 WON
Super Add: #5 Sunrise Cruise 12-1 3rd

5th: CLM, 4+, 6.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Crazy treacherous dime claimers.. SCR original top choice #4 Il Divo..

Most Likely: #11 Casino Gambler 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #7 Kiernan’s Legacy 8-1 4th
Next Best: #10 B L’s Tsumani 4-1 WON
Super Add: ##12 Dealing Lucky 10-1 5th

6th: OC/N3X, 4+, 8.5f-Outer Turf (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Curious assembly of 3rd level ALW runners and $80k offerings; #1 Star Plus, now 7 and away 431 days, has to be considered dangerous with Penna helming off nice a.m. lead-up, while Sheppard takes over fellow 7yo Augustin product #2 Auction Watch; Steady #3 Valtrus got a brief freshener from Bruce Brown and always fires, while #6 Slambino, regularly worth consideration, has been gone 3 months; McPeek’s #4 Sr. Henry is competitive based on his synthetic form as well; #6 Florentino has been better on this lawn than anywhere else, and looms a threat on the front end as likely main, and possibly lone, speed; Difficult set..

Most Likely: #1 Star Plus 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #6 Slambino 8-1 4th
Next Best: #2 Auction Watch 3-1 5th
Super Add: #4 Sr. Henry 5-1 WON

7th: FL-bred MSW, 3yo, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 SCR
Best Value: #6 Victory Cat 8-1 8th
Next Best: #4 Coffee Boy 4-1 4th
Super Add: #10 Smoking the Field 5-1 2nd

8th: OC/N2X, F&M-4+, 5f-Outer Turf (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Candy Cane 6-1 WON
Next Best:#8 Summer Flight 3-1 9th
Best Value: #1 Holiday Girl 12-1 2nd
Super Add: #9 Streamin Heat 4-1 6th

9th: MSW, 3yo, 1m-Inner Turf (Super)

Most Likely: #5 Remittance 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #8 Bergerac 8-1
Next Best: #6 El Kingdom LATE SCR
Super Add: #9 Plead 20-1 2nd

@$200 P6 Play:

4: 10
5: 7-11
6: 1-2-3-4-5-6
7: 4-6-10
8: 3
9: 5-6-8

1x2x6x3x1x3 = 108 x $2 = $216

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 1-2-3-4-5-6
7: 4-6-10
8: 3-8
9: 5-6-8-9

6x3x2x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

Encouraging day Friday despite some beats as I at least started to find the range a bit for the first time in 2+ weeks. There were more insane winners at Aqueduct as part of the action, with photographs the difference separating 43-1 Even Frisky from 3-1 Citizen Bailey in the 4th and 23-1 Living Out a Dream from 1-1 Crazy Charlie in the 5th. That $935.50 Daily Double helped trigger today’s brutal $118k double C/O, which commences with the 4th race where Dee Tee Stables launches the career of our LLOYDOBLER.

Elsewhere at the Big A Friday, ‘Best Value’ third choice Hello Gold ($17.60) was lucky to beat 3-2 ‘Most Likely’ Badgette in the 6th, but when Western Decision came third at 33-1, a pudgy $345.50 triple was there to be had. And at Gulfstream, you would have scratched into the $400 P4 using Keeping the Honor (put up via DQ) when Cenzontle came out of the nightcap. Hope you did well Friday and are ready for a big day of racing coast to coast highlighted by the Derby Trail launchers at Gulfstream (Holy Bull) and Fair Grounds (Lecomte)!

GULFSTREAM PARK

PRE-SCRATCHES

7th: MSW, 3yo, 7f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Mine N Gems 3-1 WON
Next Best: #5 Six Clicks 5-2 7th
Best Value: #1 Miner’s Reserve 10-1 4th
Super Add: #8 Warrant Ofc. Cook 6-1 6th

8th: ALW/N1X, 3yo-F, 8.5f-Inner T (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #1 (POE) In the Rough 8-1 2nd
Most Likely: #7 Miss Olivia Rae 4-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 Take a Vow 3-1 7th
Super Add: #8 Deterrence 6-1 8th

9th: 21st Holy Bull (G3), 3yo, 1m (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #9 Jackson Bend (5-2): Speedy LaPenta buy-in starts Derby campaign; Hasn’t misfired yet.. 2nd
Best Value: #5 William’s Kitten (8-1): Ramsey-Maker colt seems certain to be missed; Best came on dirt.. 3rd
Next Best: #8 Aikenite (4-1): Serious Dogwood-Pletcher number has been rock solid in every start.. 6th
Super Add: #6 Winslow Homer (6-1): A. Dutrow-R. Porter grey can factor, but is looking ahead.. WON

10th: MDN CLM, 3yo, 1m-Inner T (Super)

Most Likely: #10 Furious Run 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #2 History Ahead 12-1 WON
Next Best: #9 Sarah’s Tiger 4-1 5th
Super Add: #3 Consolate 8-1 9th

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 1-4-5
8: 1-3-7
9: 5-6-8-9
10: 2-3-9-10

3x3x4x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

FAIR GROUNDS

PRE-SCRATCHES

6th: 24th Col. Bradley (G3), 4+, 8.5f-T (P3, Super)

Best Value: #2 Tybalt 8-1 4th
Most Likely: #4 El Caballo 2-1 WON
Next Best: #3 Get Rich Quick 6-1 2nd
Super Add: #5 Princeville Condo 7-2 5th

7th: 64th Louisiana H., 4+, 8.5f (P4, P3, Super)

Best Value: Tend SCR
Most Likely: #7 Good and Lucky 9-5 3rd
Next Best: #3 Secret Getaway 5-2 4th
Super Add: #1 General Quarters 6-1 2nd

8th: 18th Tiffany Lass, 3yo-F, 1m-40y (P6, P3, Super)

Most Likely: #10 Quiet Temper 8-5 5th
Best Value: #5 Elusive Jozi 12-1 4th
Next Best: Visavis SCR
Super Add: #7 Jackpot Joanie 20-1 6th

9th: 23rd Leggio Mem., F&M-4+, 5.5f-T (P3, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Lady Chace 9-2 4th
Best Value: Juliet’s Spirit SCR
Next Best: #7 Trusty Temper 8-1 9th
Super Add: #5 Annihilation 6-1 WON

10th: 66th Lecomte (G3), 3yo, 1,-40y (P4, P3, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Maximus Ruler (4-1): Colt commences what should be voyage back to Louisville.. 2nd
Best Value: #3 Wordly (5-1): Another Churchill-based soph that fits well here and has upside.. 5th
Next Best: Callide Valley SCR
Super Add: #5 Citrus Kid (8-1): Stamina-built LDK colt never bothered sprinting; Worth watching.. 7th

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 1-2-3-6/SCR-7
8: 2/SCR-5-10
9: 5-7-8-10-12/SCR
10: 1-3

4x2x3x2 = 48 x .50 = $24

11th: 25th Gaudin Mem., 4+, 6f (P3, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Cash Refund 8-5 WON
Next Best: #2 Euroears 7-5 6th
Best Value: #4 Tempo Five 9-2 4th
Super Add: #5 Sok Sok 10-1 2nd