Enjoyed first 2010 visit to Gulfstream Saturday and had good day with the exceedingly formful slate. DQ of Take the Points in the GP Turf H. was an unnecessary call that pretty well cheated Pletcher and Wolf-Lucarelli Starlight team out of a Gr. I for their high strung colt, but it did result in multiple hits of the chalky $54 P4 (Wildcat Frankie, Court Vision, Quality Road and Tottie). Along the way there were a couple of nice exotic hits, especially when Best Value 9-1 Sincero came through 2nd in a photo with Most Likely Boots Ahead and Next Best Sleepless Knight in the 7th for the $132 ($1) tri. Hope you did well!

Was sorry to lose the Santa Anita card of course, but the graded stakes are coming back this Saturday. Today’s action may be limited nearly exclusively to Hallandale with the Eastern Seaboard venues having already cancelled in advance of yet another heavy snow, and Arcadia potentially threatened due to more torrential rain.

GULFSTREAM PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: CLM, 4+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Brown Dirt Cowboy 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #5 Brassie Prince 6-1 WON
Next Best: #2 Prince Steve 4-1 10th
Super Add: #12 Silver Moose 10-1 6th

7th: ALW/N1X, 4+, 5f-T @ 48 ft. (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Shabeeb 2-1 6th
Best Value: #1 Chapel of Love 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 Whodidntknowthat 4-1 4th
Super Add: #5 Forest Tour 5-1 2nd

8th: S/ALW, 4+, 6,5f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Dramatic Trip 2-1 WON
Best Value: #4 Red Elephant 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 Grand Bailout 8-1 6th

9th: MSW, 3yo, 9f-T @ 48 ft. (Super)

Most Likely: #12 Paddy O’Prado 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #1 Gravitas 15-1 12th
Next Best: #7 Moe Man 6-1 11th
Super Add: #6 Saint Jude 4-1 WON

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 1-5-8-12
7: 4
8: 2-3-4
9: 1-3-5-6-7-8-11-12

4x1x3x8 = 96 x .50 = $48

Press:

6: 1
7: 4
8: 2-4
9: 1-6-7-12

1x1x2x4 = 8 x $3 = $24

WINTER OF DISCONTENT: I live in Upstate New York and spent 10 years in Montreal, but I don’t think I’d have been able to ‘weather’ the surprisingly tough series of winter storms the Mid-Atlatic region has faced this year. A second pile of snow will KO most of the seaboard’s racing today, including a second cancellation of the Magna 5 because of Laurel. (Maybe I’m being overly critical, but you might have thought that MEC would have anticipated this scenario and used a 2nd Santa Anita race in the wager instead of the Laurel race, considering that the storm has been expected since Monday.) Aqueduct looks to have been spared from the storm’s wrath, which will certainly please Gary Contessa and Co. who hope to stay on track towards the Gotham with slick Eightyfiveinafifty who looks like an unbettable dominator in today’s Whirlaway. (And by the way, this is a perfect opportunity to sign up for NYRA’s new text alert system that will let you know about cancellations, P6 carryovers and more..)

GULFSTREAM/SANTA ANITA WITH GREAT CARDS: I know it’s more fun and fashionable to gripe about small fields and how terrible racing is in general, but even Debbie Downer would be hard-pressed to complain about today’s Gulfstream and Santa Anita cards. In addition to the Donn, GP Turf H. and crazy Suwannee, Hallandale hosts 3 terrific ALW’s and 2 sophomore MSW’s. ATR regular Rick Hammerle gives Santa Anita fans a stakes-laden treat today that received the enhancement of carryovers with $85k in the P6 and $41k in the Super High 5 as well. And Sunday’s Super Bowl lead-up slates are also solid, with the Hallandale Beach S. in So. FL and the San Antonio at Arcadia. My looks at GP and SA below.

THAT CHARLES CELLA? The Charles Cella that is being hailed as racing’s greatest showman and promoter ever.. an equine Barnum as it were.. is he the same Charles Cella that in the early 90’s vindictively undermined the American Championship Racing Series single-handed? Same guy, right?

GULFSTREAM PARK

PRE-SCRATCHES

5th: MSW, 3yo, 1m-Outer Turf (P3, DD, Super)

Solid group and Kerouac, who should move up on lawn, particularly interesting at big number. Zito notoriously dreadful with grass debuters though, so tread lightly. El Kingdom, similarly likely to benefit from move to sod, another value option in good race. Note AE #14 Person of Interest (4-1) becomes a runner of interest should he get in..

Most Likely: #11 Lonesome Street 7-2 WON
Best Value: #5 Beau Choix 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #4 Sea of Sea 4-1 4th
Super Add: #3 Kerouac 12-1 7th

6th: MSW, 3yo, 7f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #10 Pow Wow 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #1 Day of Destiny 5-1 WON
Next Best: #8 Nadal 3-1 4th
Super Add: #4 Sun Dance Moon 8-1 9th

7th: ALW/N2X, 4+, 1m-Outer Turf (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #10 Boots Ahead 4-1 WON
Best Value: #6 Sincero 10-1 2nd
Next Best: #4 Sleepless Knight 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #5 A. P. Ridge 12-1 7th

$1 Exacta (10-6) Paid $44.20
$1 Trifecta (10-6-4) Paid $132.20

8th: ALW/N1X, 3yo, 1m (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Wildcat Frankie 9-5 WON
Best Value: #8 Tuvia’s Force 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Overcommunication 3-1 8th
Super Add: #6 Bank the Eight 6-1 2nd

9th: 25th GP Turf H. (G1), 4+, 9f-Outer Turf (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Court Vision 8-5 WON (Via DQ)
Best Value: #1 Le Grand Cru 12-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Never On Sunday 2-1 2nd

10th: 52nd Donn H. (G1), 4+, 9f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Quality Road 7-5 WON
Best Value: #6 Past the Point 10-1 6th
Next Best: #8 Mambo Meister 6-1 4th
Super Add: #3 Duke of Mischief 5-1 8th

11th: 63rd Suwannee River (G3), F&M-4+, 9f-Outer Turf (Super)

Best Value: #7 Indigo North 12-1 6th
Most Likely: #5 Cable 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #8 SCR
Super Add: #12 SCR

<$75 P4 Play:

8: 1-8
9: 1-3-4
10: 4-6-8
11: 5-7-8/SCR-10-11–12/SCR

2x3x3x4 = 72 x .50 = $36

$.50 Pick 4 (1-3-4-11) Paid $26.95

Press:

8: 1
9: 3
10: 4
11: 5-7-8/SCR-10-11–12/SCR

1x1x1x4 = 4 x $3 = $12

$1 Pick 4 (1-3-4-11) Paid $53.90 x 3 = $162.70

Good luck!
Steve

Interesting outcomes at Santa Anita as the Super High 5 carryover in the nightcap outpayed the P6 version $10,684 to $8,652. Is it easier to put 6 winners on one multi-race ticket from a total of 47 runners, or build a single race play that tabs the first 5 finishers from 9? I’m still feeling my way when it comes to the Super High 5, but the stunning accrual of more than $250,000 in the wager’s pot says it has an unquestionable following.

The $4.80 winner of the nightcap was a nearly universal choice, and there were then 7-2 (My Last Tycoon), 4-1 (Quietly Waiting) and 13-2 (My Friend Bernie) 2nd, 3rd and 4th choices that all seemed to figure into any Super High 5 equation you were constructing. Indeed, $6.50 Bernie ended up second behind 3-2 Veecu, and $4.10 Quietly Waiting checked in 5th. That left 5 outsiders with prices of 15-1, 16-1, 22-1, 25-1 and 36-1 to mix, match or exclude from the play. I liked 22-1 Guadalupe Lupe well enough as an include to place her third in selections, and she finished 4th. But you needed to like 25-1 Brickyardtradition as prominantly on your play to cash as the top 5 lined up like this:

1. Veecu 1.40
2. My Friend Bernie 6.50
3. Brickyard Tradition 25.00
4. Guadalupe Lupe 22.50
5. Quietly Waiting 4.10

Even a singling of the fairly obvious winner leaves you with difficult budgetary choices. Keying the favorite with the next three public choices establishes a base for the wager that guarantees a large investment. If you only start feathering in outsiders in the show slot of the wager, you end up with a structure that probably ends up close to this:

A with (1) Strong favorite
BCD with (3) Next 3 choices in the betting
BCDEF with (4) Next 3 choices in betting plus 2 outsiders
BCDEF with (3) Next 3 choices in betting plus 2 outsiders
BCDEFGHI (5) “All” except one throwout

1x3x4x3x5 = $180

And since getting an outsider or two somewhere in the top 5 is imperitive to the kind of return you are looking for in this high risk-high reward wager, you are compelled to take a huge chance that the “E, F” inclusions you add at the show and super slots finish no better than third.

Are you better off narrowing up top and spreading more below?

A with (1) Strong favorite
BC with (2) Next 2 choices in the betting (or 2 you think most of)
BCDEFG with (5) Next 2 choices in betting plus 4 others keyed below
BCDEFG with (4)
BCDEFG (3)

1x2x5x4x3 = $120

I asked Steve Davidowitz his thoughts about the Super High 5 Wednesday on ATR, and he said he has been playing it on paper formulating conclusions, and may be writing something about it soon for DRF’s Simulcast Weekly. By any measurement, the High 5 takes a special approach and serious investment. Wen you see that the kind of money that was bet into the pool yesterday on it, and the fact that it continually returns 5 digit payoffs, even without a carryover, it clearly merits consideration. But not without study and pre-planning and a concise approach.

Overall, it was a fun day starting with the Aqueduct action that was positive despite the odd result in the 6th that scuttled the P4 play. Best Value Almighty Silver’s effort in the 8th was key ($21.80), as the Paulino Ortiz (!) trainee got up to trigger a $259.00 ($1) tri over Be Bullish and Dr. W. The long-time under the radar Ortiz has been on a protracted performance run with his claimers and state breds since the middle of 2009, and was already 21/4-4-1 coming into Wednesday. Entering the day, Ortiz was also winning at a 17% clip the last 90 days with an ROI of $3.88 according to Thoro-Graph Trainer Data. He’s long been a favorite of mine, as ATR listeners have undoubtedly heard, since pal Jim Ortiz (no relation) pointed him out to me in the 1980’s.

$32k carryover at Golden Gate today! How about that?

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 3-5-6-7
7: 1-2-4-6-9
8: 3-7
9: 1-6

4x5x2x2 = $80

GOLDEN GATE

PRE-SCRATCHES

<$100 P6 Play:

3: 2-3
4: 5-7
5: 4-5
6: 5
7: 4-5-8
8: 4-6

2x2x2x1x3x2 = 48 x $2 = $96

Good luck!
Steve

Despite some solid opinions, fell short Sunday on GP and SA P4 tries that both paid exceedingly well. Baffert authored a surprise in the Santa Monica when enigmatic Gabby’s Golden Gal emerged late for her second G1 win to go with last year’s Acorn. I went 6 deep in the quirky stake, and can’t suggest that Gabby would have been horse 7, 8 or 9! The P4 paid $1,254 and the P6 wasn’t hit ($127,000 carryover today) in part thanks to Baffert’s winner, and Sandy Shulman’s $18 ‘Aunt Fanny’ in the 4th. Earlier at Gulfstream, I included Chad Brown’s Unaccountable as the Super Add in the 7th, but found him tough to use in the P4 play. That was unfortunate as he and overlaid Bickersons (G2 Forward Gal) helped prime the $1,636 (.50) quad payout. So as always, there was great value in the multi-race standard. Hope you did well. The SA carryover look is below, including Jon White’s suggestion, as well as a P4 swing at Aqueduct. Aqueduct 9th and Santa Anita C/O heats 3-6 on “ATR” this afternoon…

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: CLM, F&M-4+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #9 Sophisticated Lass 5-2 5th
Best Value: #4 Fashion Queen 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 Liza Lu 4-1 6th
Super Add: #3 Only a Vision 6-1 4th

7th: NYB-OC/N1X, 4+, 9f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Diamond District 9-5 3rd
Next Best: #1 Smart Enuf 7-2 WON
Best Value: #8 French Transition 6-1 2nd
Super Add: #7 Living Out a Dream 20-1 6th

$1 Exacta (1-8) Paid $35.25
$1 Trifecta (1-8-6) Paid $61.75

8th: S/ALW, 4+, 1m (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Dr. W 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #3 Almighty Silver 6-1 WON
Next Best: #7 Stud Muffin 2-1 5th
Super Add: #2 Be Bullish 9-2 2nd

$1 Exacta (3-2) Paid $55.75
$2 Trifecta (3-2-6) Paid $259.00

9th: NYB-CLM/N2L, 4+, 1m (Super)

Most Likely: #5 Coaltown Legend 5-2 WON
Best Value: #2 Suttle Rich 12-1 9th
Next Best: #6 Nolite Timere 6-1 2nd
Super Add: #1 Kick Up Your Heels 20-1 4th

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 1-3-4-5-9
7: 1-5-6-7-8
8: 6
9: 2-5-6

5x5x1x3 = $75

SANTA ANITA

PRE-SCRATCHES

3rd: ALW/C, 4+, 6.5f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Get Funky 4-1 5th
Best Value: #1 Cherokee Heaven 9-2 2nd
Next Best: #5 Liberian Freighter 7-2 4th
Super Add: #7 Papa Bear 15-1 9th

4th: CLM, 4yo-F, 6.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Sky Marni 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #8 Apache Anne 20-1 7th
Next Best: #4 Church Avenue 4-1 6th
Super Add: #3 Cuvee Blush 5-1 8th

5th: Cal-MSW, 4+, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 One Man’s Delight 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #2 Absolutelypositively 6-1 4th
Next Best: #9 Juliano 7-2 WON
Super Add: #5 Gobbler’s Knob 8-1 5th

6th: CLM/N2L, F&M-4+, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #4 Acute Velocity 4-1 4th
Most Likely: #8 First Queen 3-1 WON
Next Best: #6 Saint Cindy 4-1 2nd
Super Add: #5 Soldier Betty 7-2 5th

7th: ALW/N1X, 3yo, 8.5f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 The Program 9-5 WON
Next Best: #1 Distorted Dave 2-1 5th
Best Value: #3 Get a Grip 9-2 4th

8th: MDN CLM, 3yo, 1m (Super, Super High 5)

$57k Super Hi-5 C/O..

Most Likely: #6 Veecu 8-5 WON
Next Best: #2 My Last Tycoon 4-1 7th
Best Value: #8 Guadalupe Lupe 20-1 4th
Super Add: #5 Quietly Waiting 7-2 5th
High 5 Play: #3 My Friend Bernie 6-1 2nd

<$200 P6 Play:

3: 3
4: 2-8
5: 2-8
6: 4-6-8
7: 1-2-3-4
8: 2-6

1x2x2x3x4x2 = 96 x $2 = $192

<$75 P4 Play:

5: 2-8-9
6: 4-6-8
7: 1-2-3-4
8: 2-6

3x3x4x2 = $72

$1 Pick 4 (4,9/8/4/6) Paid $104.50

Good luck!
Steve

JON WHITE’S P6 C/O PLAY

3: 1-3-5
4: 1-2-4
5: 1-4-8
6: 5-6-8
7: 4
8: 6

3x3x3x3x1x1 = 81 x $2 = $162

CAN’T GET CLOSER: When Jamie Theriot and Dubai Majesty arrived a jump too late to beat Quisiana in the Sunshine Millions F&M Sprint, which doubled as the opening leg of Santa Anita’s carryover, I wasn’t thinking too much about getting knocked out of the P6. I immediately thought about the lucky ATR listeners that took Brad Free’s advice from Friday’s Preview Show, because the sharp DRF Cali correspondent gave us all the cold $63.60 exacta. It was only as my P4/P6 single of High Tide Rising in the 11th burst to the lead, that I began lamenting not taking Free’s advice (for the $16k P6 payout) or Theriot launching Dubai Majesty earlier (likely $10-12k payout?). Did get two $175 5 of 6 consos, and the $472 P4 was quite nice, but nothing can console you from coming so close to a P6 hit. Overall, it was a very fun and consistent afternoon of horseplay, with Quisiana the only runner missing from inclusion somewhere in the tabs of the day’s 11 races. Hope you did well!

WEATHER KO’S MAGNA 5 BUT SUNMILL DELIVERS: One of the day’s disappointments was the cancellation of the Magna 5 due to Laurel scuttling their Saturday card, but the Sunshine Millions action more than made up for its’ absence. As it turned out, the modest $48 play I had in mind wouldn’t have come close to getting the job done due to Quisiana in what would have been Leg C and Jet Propulsion wiring the SunMill Turf (Leg D). Jet Propulsion was my third choice in the 9f grass nightcap because like stablemate Jessica is Back, I wasn’t convinced he wanted to go a full mile and an eighth. But the Wolfson runner jogged around the oval on an uncontested lead, and quashed my P4 play which sought Soldier’s Dancer or Bad Action who both barely registered efforts. The quad returned just $119 ($1) for the sequence that included the most exciting stretch duel at Gulfstream since Read the Footnotes and Second of June in the 2004 Fountain of Youth. Paul Pompa’s This Ones for Phil stalked Pachito the Che for the first half of the SunMill Sprint before engaging the Scott Lake speedball at the top of the stretch. The pair were inseparable for the next 300 yards and needed photography to decide who hit the line first. Both etched 108 Beyers. And as great as their duel was, minutes before their battle, Bret Calhoun’s Bubbler and Rick Scherer’s Never Retreat engaged in a similar corker in the Krantz Memorial at the Fair Grounds. Much of the day’s excitement was defined by the delightful finish of the SunMill Classic where Bill Morey’s 7yo Bold Chieftan edged Roger Attfield’s 8yo Palladio. Palladio went over $1,000,000 with his $100,000 share of the $500,000 purse. Say what you will about the hokey Florida v. California restricted annual event, but it regularly provides great betting action and thrilling races. A race that gets two venerable performers like Bold Chieftan (now 34/15-6-4, $1,431,411) and Palladio (now 36/9-2-5, $1,060,812) into an exacta, is OK by any standard.

FORWARD GAL AND SANTA MONICA KEY GP/SA ACTION: Tremendous card at Gulfstream today which includes outstanding G2 soph filly Forward Gal and an important 9f ALW for the boys (6th) as well. 11 F&M’s tangle at Santa Anita in the first G1 of the year there. Bob Baffert sends a pair in that Santa Monica as Acorn winner Gabby’s Golden Gal tries to recapture her best 2009 form and emerging Smarty Jones daughter Gilded Gem hits the big time off MDN and ALW scores in her only career starts. Baffert also has 2 in the ALW preceeding the feature, where 5-2 Underground and 5-1 Toro Bonito figure prominantly. Thoughts on the late 5 at Hallandale and late 4 at Arcadia are below.

BEYER LAMENTS MARYLAND ACCEPTANCE OF ZIADIE: When Andy Beyer writes about anything other than straightforward handicapping issues, it’s usually regarding specific situations where suspected ‘edge-taking’ is going on by trainers. It’s an issue Beyer has talked about on “At the Races” many times, the most recent being last winter’s on-air and in print tete-a-tetes with Marty Wolfson. Beyer, whose knowledge of, passion for and contributions to the game enables him to speak with complete authority, wrote Saturday with frustration and sadness to the Maryland Jockey Club’s decision to allow Kirk Ziadie stalls at Laurel. Calder, and with it Florida racing, had successfully expunged Ziadie from within its’ midst, and Beyer is rightfully stunned that MJC management let the highly suspect trainer onto its’ backstretch.

GULFSTREAM PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: ALW/N1X, 3yo, 9f (P3, DD, Super)

Potentially important soph ALW that likely produces 2-3 Fountain of Youth starters next month.. SCR #4 Pulsion 3-1

Most Likely: #3 Drosselmeyer 5-2 WON
Best Value: #6 Best Actor 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #7 Guys Reward 4-1 6th

7th: ALW/N1X, 4+, 1m-Inner Turf (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Impossible exotics scenario beneath Roman’s 3-1 ML favorite #10 Auston’s Sure Cure who merits edge. Virtually entire field could merit inclusion underneath choice.. SCR #7 Midnite Silver 4-1

Most Likely: #10 Auston’s Sure Cure 3-1 6th
Best Value: #3 Cozy Lion 6-1 4th
Next Best: #9 Nineinthenine 8-1 2nd
Super Add: #4 Unaccountable 10-1 WON

8th: ALW/N1X,

SCR #10 Cowgirl Mally 5-2

Best Value: #2 No Deposit 8-1 3rd
Most Likely: #4 Donna Getyourgun 3-1 WON
Next Best: #1 Jersey Shore Girl 6-1 7th
Super Add: #6 Proud Trippi 8-1 5th

9th: 30th Forward Gal (G2), 3yo-F, 7f (DD, Super)

SCR #8 Carphonic & #1 Touching Beauty

Most Likely: #7 Ailalea 4-1 6th
Best Value: #2 Cascading 10-1 10th
Next Best: #6 She Be Wild 3-1 5th
Super Add: #9 Romantic Hideaway 12-1 4th

10th: CLM/N2L, 4+, 8.5f-Inner Turf (Super)

Best Value: #1 Musca 6-1 WON
Most Likely: #9 Sobhy 5-2 5th
Next Best: #7 Clean Shot 6-1 9th
Super Add: #10 Live On the Edge 8-1 6th

<$50 P4 Play:

7: 3-10
8: 1-2-4
9: 2-5-6-7-9-11-12-13
10: 1-9

2x3x8x2 = 96 x .50 = $48

SANTA ANITA

PRE-SCRATCHES

6th: CLM, 4+, 10f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Uffizi 5-2 5th
Next Best: #7 Cavanal 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Yodelen Dan 7-5 WON

7th: OC/N1X, F&M-4+, 6.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Manhattan Beach 3-1 WON
Best Value: #8 Barbara’s Love 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Underground 5-2 2nd
Super Add: #6 Stevie’s Afleet 6-1 5th

8th: 53rd Santa Monica (G1), F&M-4+, 7f (DD, Super)

SCR #8 Tuscan Evening out of this excellent running of the 1st Gr. I of 2010 at Santa Anita..

Bestr Value: #10 Sweet August Moon 12-1 11th
Most Likely: #7 Proviso 7-2 2nd
Next Best: #3 Evita Argentina 3-1 7th
Super Add: #12 Gilded Gem 12-1 5th

9th: MDN CLM, 3yo-F, 6.5f (Super, Super High 5)

Most Likely: #3 Melbisha 7-2 4th
Best Value: #9 Utaron 5-1 9th
Next Best: #2 Ida of March 6th
Super Add: #11 Moonskipper 4-1 WON
High 5 Play: #5 Warrens Royal Lady 5-1 8th

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 1-4-7
7: 7
8: 1-3-7-9-10-12
9: 2-3-9-11

3x1x6x4 = $72