P6 players that negotiated the treacherous sequence were well rewarded with a $62k payoff, and it’s hard to bwelieve as many hit as did with winners of $20, $16, $17 and $40 making up two thirds of the skien. Was happy to catch the opening 4th with $20.60 Merlin Bay the on top tab, but the highly obvious chalky winners in the 7th and 8th were all that could be added to the early success. Of course the outcome of the multis should probably have ben very different as runner up Deflationary Fears was the glaring best in the 9th but received a curiously indifferent Alan Garcia ride. Hope you did well! More Elmont action today, and Ron Turcotte joins me on ‘At the Races’ later!

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #9 SCR
Best Value: #3 Cougar Cruise 8-1
Next Best: #1 Splendrous 3-1
Super Add: #5 Derwin’s Pulpit 12-1

5th: CLM/C, 3+, 1m-T (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 O’Kid 5-2
Best Value: #2 Of All Times 5-1
Next Best: #8 Zappa 3-1
Super Add: #9 J J’s Prophet 4-1

6th: NYB-ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m (P4, P3, DD)

In an exhibit of bad judgement by Contessa, Game Token ran Wednesday in the NYB stake (last of 6), instead of here where he had a chance to hit the board and possibly even upset the Kelly entry..

Most Likely: #1a Shrewd One 4-5
Best Value: #5 Next Day 6-1
Next Best: #4 Steal the Shot 4-1

7th: NYB-OC/N2X, 3+, 7f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Pennington 2-1
Best Value: #2 Strong Impact 5-1
Next Best: #4 Mor Chances 7-2
Super Add: #9 Mine Over Matter 15-1

8th: NYB-OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (DD)

Most Likely: #1e Bush entry 7-2
Next Best: #4 Cagey Girl 5-2
Exotics Use: #7 Triple Tax Exempt 4-1

9th: CLM/C, 3+, 1m-T (Super)

Should AE Adari NOT get in, add #1 Old Man Buck (5-1) to the selections..

Most Likely: #4 Pavoratti’s Soul 2-1
Next Best: #11 (AE) SCR
Best Value: #2 SCR
Super Add: #10 Lemon Shore 4-1

<$50 P4 Play:

6: 1
7: 2-3-4-5-6-9
8: 1-3-4-7
9: 4

1x6x4x1 = 24 x $2 = $48

Good luck!
Steve

BELMONT PARKPOST-SCRATCHES

4th: NY-MDN CLM, 3yo, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #1 Merlin Bay 6-1 WON ($20.60)
Most Likely: #6 Justtakemypicture 3-1 5th
Next Best: #4 Wise Stop 5-2 3rd
Super Add: #3 Who’s Willie Fitz 6-1 4th

5th: CLM/N2Y, F&M-3+, 1m-T (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Higher Incentive 3-1 6th
Next Best: #5 Double Dinghy Day 5-2 4th
Exotics Use: #7 Bob’s Pinup Girl 4-1 WON ($15.40)
Super Add: #6 Hangingonaprayer 5-1 2nd

6th: MDN CLM, 3+, 6f-IT (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Mr. Hadif 8-5 2nd
Next Best: #9 Something Gold 9-5 4th
Best Value: #7 King Prada 10-1 3rd
Super Add: #1 Peytons Heart 6-1 5th

7th: New York Stallion-R, 3yo, 7f-T (P3, DD)

Note that several scratches here: #1, #2, #4 and #5..

Most Likely: #8 FRANNY FREUD 3-5 WON ($2.50)
Next Best: #3 Make Note 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #7 Hittin the Note 20-1 5th

8th: AQLW/N2L, F&M-3+, 7f (DD)

Wrote extensively last week about vulnerability of heavy Albertrani fave Biz Jet, and she disappointed on cue finishing off the board. Here again Tom A. has a heavy favorite who may not be as overwhelming in an N2L as her price indicates. Stretchout to additional panel a positive; may have a clear pace edge, and two horses from her debut score have returned to win posting 83 and 78 Beyers. Can be singled on budget tickets, but backup plays should consider the #1 and #2..

Most Likely: #5 Belle of the Hall 6-5 WON ($3.90)
Best Value: #1 Victoria Lynn 5-1 4th
Next Best: #2 Muhaawara 5-2 2nd

9th: MDN CLM, 3+, 1m-T (Super)

As much as you’d be inclined to try and beat the dropping Fu San, the race he exits from March has been highly productive. Kimmel not successful adding hoods, but is having a sharp meet and his father, who bred this FuPeg colt, certainly won’t care if FuSan gets claimed..

Most Likely: #2 Fu San 2-1 3rd
Next Best: #7 The Cuff Shooter 5-2 6th
Best Value: #6 High Prize 30-1 5th
Super Add: #3 Deflationary Fears 5-1 2nd

<$100 P6 Play:

4: 1-3-4-5-6-7
5: 3-5
6: 2-9
7: 8
8: 1-5
9: 2

6x2x2x1x2x1 = 48 x $2 = $96

<$50 P4 Play:

6: 1-2-7-9
7: 8
8: 1-2-5
9: 2-3-6-7

4x1x3x4 = $48

Good luck!
Steve

JON WHITE’S CARRYOVER PLAY

<$200 P6 Play:

4: 4-6
5: 3-5-6-7
6: 2-7-9
7: 8
8: 2-5
9: 2

2x4x3x1x2x1 = 48 x $2 = $96

5th: CLM/N2Y, F&M-3+, 1m-T (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Higher Incentive 3-1
Next Best: #5 Double Dinghy Day 5-2
Exotics Use: #7 Bob’s Pinup Girl 4-1
Super Add: #6 Hangingonaprayer 5-1

6th: MDN CLM, 3+, 6f-IT (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Mr. Hadif 8-5
Next Best: #9 Something Gold 9-5
Best Value: #7 King Prada 10-1
Super Add: #1 Peytons Heart 6-1

7th: New York Stallion-R, 3yo, 7f-T (P3, DD)

Note that several scratches here: #1, #2, #4 and #5..

Most Likely: #8 FRANNY FREUD 3-5
Next Best: #3 Make Note 7-2
Best Value: #7 Hittin the Note 20-1

8th: AQLW/N2L, F&M-3+, 7f (DD)

Wrote extensively last week about vulnerability of heavy Albertrani fave Biz Jet, and she disappointed on cue finishing off the board. Here again Tom A. has a heavy favorite who may not be as overwhelming in an N2L as her price indicates. Stretchout to additional panel a positive; may have a clear pace edge, and two horses from her debut score have returned to win posting 83 and 78 Beyers. Can be singled on budget tickets, but backup plays should consider the #1 and #2..

Most Likely: #5 Belle of the Hall 6-5
Best Value: #1 Victoria Lynn 5-1
Next Best: #2 Muhaawara 5-2

9th: MDN CLM, 3+, 1m-T (Super)

As much as you’d be inclined to try and beat the dropping Fu San, the race he exits from March has been highly productive. Kimmel not successful adding hoods, but is having a sharp meet and his father, who bred this FuPeg colt, certainly won’t care if FuSan gets claimed..

Most Likely: #2 Fu San 2-1
Next Best: #7 The Cuff Shooter 5-2
Best Value: #6 High Prize 30-1
Super Add: #3 Deflationary Fears 5-1

<$100 P6 Play:

4: 1-3-4-5-6-7
5: 3-5
6: 2-9
7: 8
8: 1-5
9: 2

6x2x2x1x2x1 = 48 x $2 = $96

<$50 P4 Play:

6: 1-2-7-9
7: 8
8: 1-2-5
9: 2-3-6-7

4x1x3x4 = $48

Good luck!
Steve

JON WHITE’S CARRYOVER PLAY

<$200 P6 Play:

4: 4-6
5: 3-5-6-7
6: 2-7-9
7: 8
8: 2-5
9: 2

2x4x3x1x2x1 = 48 x $2 = $96

Challenging but fun day Friday at Belmont, and came away with 4 of 6 in the Belmont double carryover as Pletcher 6th race MSW winner the horse that was hardest to find. Hunter’s Bay was dreadful in his debut but miraculous Friday jumping to an 89 BSF on the stretchout and squashed the P4 play while scuttling the sextet. The good news in getting beat in the quad opener was a bargain P3 play for the 7th-9th returned a nice $120 which defrayed the day’s expenses thanks to $22 Mesa Fresca in the 7th. Hope you did well.

Monmouth season starts today with meet that will be heavily scrutinized. The .50 P5 is a terrific play as I’ve discussed on ATR, and well worth tracking. Arlington stakes are good inside that P4 today, and Belmont guaranteed quad is highlighted by the good Sheepshead Bay with yesterday’s surprise visitor Tommy Proctor featured prominently.

Should be a great day of racing!

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

7th: NYB-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Perserverance 9-2 7th
Best Value: #9 Tuscana 6-1 4th
Next Best: #7 Sneakin Up 10-1 8th
Super Add: #5 Chernobyl Princess 12-1 3rd

8th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 7f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #5 Nobody Like Mike 6-1 3rd
Most Likely: #8 Fit 5-2 WON ($4.40)
Next Best: #4 Burnished Copper 4-1 11th
Super Add: #10 Cardiff Road 8-1 6th

9th: 52nd Sheepshead Bay (G2), F&M-3+, 11f-IT (DD, Super)

Best Value: #4 Ballynoe 8-1 6th
Next Best: #5 Nehantic Kat 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Pari 10-1 7th
Super Add: #6 Bubbly Jane 4-1 3rd

10th: NYB-ALW/N1X, 3+, 7f-T (Super)

Best Value: #7 Lubash 12-1 WON ($35.40)
Next Best: #2e Rice entry 3-1 5th
Exotics Use: #9 Fortissi More 6-1 4th
Super Add: #5 E. P. Bombay 7-2 3rd

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 7-8-9
8: 5-8
9: 1-4-5-6
10: 2-7-9

3x2x4x3 = $72

MONMOUTH PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: Decathlon, 3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #3 Congressional Page 4-1 WON ($6.20)
Next Best: #5 Go Go Shoot 2-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 Lit’sgoodlookinggray 5-1 7th
Super Add: #6 Mr. Fantasy 3-1 2nd

6th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f (.50 P5, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Reptillian Smarts 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #4 Lonely Highway 5-1 8th
Best Value: #7 Catch Rikki 6-1 6th
Super Add: #2 Stungbythestorm 4-1 5th

7th: MSW, 3+, 1m-70y (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #10 Morning Line 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #8 Sea of Liquidity 7-2 5th
Exotics Use: #11 Jadal 3-1 10th
Super Add: #4 Winaholic 6-1 WON ($12.20)

8th: NJ-ALW/N1X, 3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #11 Ming Dynasty 4-1 6th
Best Value: #2 Ain’tsuperstitious 10-1 10th
Exotics Use: #7 P J’s Back 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #8 Back Pocket Money 8-1 4th

9th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Luckiest Man 3-1 5th
Best Value: #6 Fore Pals 10-1 8th
Next Best: #5 Ketan 6-1 3rd
Super Add: #7 Solvent 6-1 4th

10th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Polished ran 3rd at BEL Wednesday, but it’s Dutrow who isn’t scared of running back like this.. Has indeed scratched..

Most Likely: #2 No Shenanigans 5-2 3rd
Next Best: #9 African Diamond 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 SCR
Super Add: #10 Themanmythnlegend 20-1 8th

<$50 .50 P5 Play:

6: 1
7: 4-8-10-11
8: 2-7-8-11
9: 5-6-8
10: 2-9

1x4x4x3x2 = 96 x .50 = $48

ARLINGTON PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

8th: CLM, 3+, 5.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Maneke 5-2 6th
Next Best: #2 Live from Appollo 3-1 WON ($6.20)
Exotics Use: #1 Trying Brian 4-1 2nd
Super Add: #5 Hapman 15-1 4th

9th: 3rd American 1000 Guineas, 3yo-F, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Bay to Bay 7-2 WON ($5.40)
Best Value: #5 Go Ask Alex 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Queen of the Creek 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #4 Chantilly Nayla 4-1 5th

10th: 76th Arlington Classic, 3yo, 8.5f-T (DD, Super)

Workin for Hops is a highly likely winner here, with the entire rest of the field a wide open grab bag. Key the Stidham runner with the best prices you can find, as anybody can be 2nd-3rd-4th here..

Most Likely: #3 WORKIN FOR HOPS 5-1 WON ($5.40)
Best Value: #5 Gleam of Hope 6-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 SCR
Super Add: #1 Mister Mardi Gras 10-1 4th

11th: ALW/N2X, F&M-3+, 1m-T (Super, Super High 5)

Best Value: #1 First of February 8-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Banker’s Choice 3-1 9th
Exotics Use: #3 Rose Princess 10-1 3rd
Super Add: #4 Blue Smoke Bess 9-2 2nd
High 5 Play: #10 My Cousin Pepe 10-1 8th

<$75 P4 Play:

8: 1-2-3
9: 4-5-6-7-8
10: 3
11: 1-3-4-5-10

3x5x1x5 = $75

Funny how you could see the Belmont carryover slipping away Thursday starting with headscratching win by Eldaafer in the 5th ahead of Kindergaerden Kid in the 6th. While some tickets might have had one or the other on them, it would have been improbable that many had both. And when Tim Ice sent 10-1 Gangbuster, a solid synthetic performer, to an inner turf win in the 8th, the double carryover was assured.

What is always fascinating about the dynamics of the P6 is how Thursday, the sequence in New York looked very plausable and approachable and proved impossible, while the Hollywood skien looked very tricky and basically went chalky with just one winner of more than 5-1. Of course part of Thursday’s challenge in Elmont was made much more daunting with the scratch of The Cuff Shooter from the nightcap. And despite finding a successful single of Spacy Tracy in the 7th, I was still only able to get 2 of the winners on the ducat. Friday’s Belmont sextet looks well worth trying though…

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Flaming Punch 9-5 3rd
Best Value: #4 Goodgollymissdolly 10-1 6th
Next Best: #5 Illegal Search 5-2 5th

2nd: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Great Cliff 2-1WON
Next Best: #6 Amelia the Cat 4-1 4th
Best Value: #3 Florida Girl 9-2 2nd

3rd: NYB-CLM/N3L, 3+, 1m (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Next Day 4-1 4th
Next Best: #7 Bridge to Nowhere 2-1 WON
Exotics Use: #2 Nolite Timere 8-1 3rd

4th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #8 Guiseppina 9-2 7th
Next Best: #9 Golden Grove 2-1 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Morningsideheights 6-1 WON
Super Add: #4 Mordecai Jones 5-1 5th

5th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 8.5f-T (G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Remittance 6-5 WON
Next Best: #7 Grand Piano Man 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #4 Royal Lord 12-1 7th

<$50 P4 Play:

2: 1
3: 2-5-7
4: 3-4-5-8-9
5: 4-6-7

1x3x5x3 = $45 $1 Pick 4 (1-1/4/6/7-5-6/10) 4 Correct Paid $53.00

6th: MSW, 3+, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Al Muhtasib 2-1 3rd
Best Value: #8 High Stakes Player 8-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Loquacious 5-2 2nd

7th: MSW, F&M-3+, 7f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Sterling Silver 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #9 Maid of Flowers 7-2 6th
Best Value: #6 Pin Turn 12-1 4th
Super Add: #8 Mesa Fresca 10-1 WON

8th: C/CLM, 3+, 6f-IT (DD, Super)

NOTE: #11 Matt’s a Giant and #1a Fujita BOTH DREW IN…

Most Likely: #2 American Cruiser 8-5 WON
Best Value: #9 Straight Romance 15-1 6th
Next Best: #11 Matt’s a Giant 8-1 2nd
Super Add: #10 Can’t Refuse 15-1 8th

9th: MSW, F&M-3+, 1m-T (Super)

NOTE: #11 Stormy Dixie DID DRAW IN…

Most Likely: #11 Stormy Dixie 3-1 WON
Best Value: #6 Genuine Charm 6-1 7th
Next Best: #10 Lucida 7-2 4th
Super Add: #1 Hill 5-1 5th

<$150 P6 Play:

4: 4-5-8-9
5: 6-7
6: 1-4-8
7: 2-6-9
8: 2
9: 11

4x2x3x3x1x1 = 72 x $2 = $144

<$50 P4 Play:

6: 1-4-8
7: 2-6-8-9
8: 2
9: 6-11

3x4x1x2 = $24 x $2 = $48

Wednesday’s late quad proved tricky indeed despite straightforward appearance, as parade of ‘possible but not lovable’ winners produced $3k P4 and P6 carryover of $26,600. The three price winners were buried in the selections as 4th choices, so it was highly unlikely that a winning play was going to be put together, as the sequence paid twice the parlay. Hope you did well. In addition to the NY carry, there is a $73k C/O at Hollywood as well…

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: MDN CLM, 3+, 6.5f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Pretty darned good race for $16k maidens..

Most Likely: #1 Delta Thunder 5-2 WON
Best Value: #8 My Man Jake 8-1 6th
Next Best: #2 Absolute Loyalty 3-1 7th
Super Add: #7 Gilt Edged 7-2 4th

5th: S/ALW, 3+, 8.5f (G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Seniors Pride 2-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Bad Action 9-5 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Rocketing Returns 3-1 2nd

6th: OC/N1X, 3+, 9f-IT (P4, P3, DD)

Interesting race with Tim Ice using the turf route as a ‘leg-up’ Belmont Stakes prep and blinker expirement for John Ed Anthony’s New Madrid; The colt, by excellent turf sire Rock Hard Ten and out of a Theatrical mare, is eligible to outrun his 8-1 ML..

Most Likely: #4 Spanish Art 5-2 3rd
Next Best: #7 Cherokee Speed 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Elusive Beat 3-1 4th

7th: S/ALW, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Very good starter ALW with well-matched bunch including some intriguing comebackers..

Most Likely: #3 Spacy Tracy 2-1 WON
Best Value: #1 Unique Citizen 15-1 7th
Next Best: #7 Untamed Glory 5-1 5th
Super Add: #4 Upper Gulch 12-1 2nd

8th: OC/N3X, 3+, 8.5-IT (DD)

Absolutely terrific turf ALW that could easily have been an overnight stake..

Most Likely: #1 Lemon Spice 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #2 Slambino 12-1 4th
Next Best: #8 Ea 6-1 6th
Exotics Use: #4 Carson Hall 3-1 3rd

9th: NYB-MDN CLM, 3+, 1m-T (Super)

Most Likely: #1a Supreme Serene 9-5 5th
Best Value: #12 N P Cat 12-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Ommadon’s Answer 9-2 6th
Super Add: #10 Logical Order 3-1 WON

<$200 P6 Play:

4: 1-2-7-8
5: 2-3-5
6: 4-7
7: 3
8: 1-2-4-8
9: 1

4x3x2x1x4x1 = 96 x $2 = $192

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 4-5-7
7: 1-3-4-6-7-8
8: 1-2
9: 1-12

3x6x2x2 = $72