Despite P4/P6 misses, enjoyed a fun and solid afternoon Sunday at Belmont catching some nice exotics. Hope you did well. Race week starts with modest sequence at Belmont with muddy main and yielding turf part of the equation (2nd & 4th are OFF the turf). Though the races seem straightforward in the late P4, the sequence is a bit tricky with three Maiden Claiming events and a very good Starter Allowance as the feature.

BELMONT PARK

PRE-SCRATCHES

CHANGES & CONDITIONS (MUDDY & YIELDING)

6th: NYB-MDN CLM, 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Rubenstein 8-5 3rd
Best Value: #2 Jerico Rules 12-1 7th
Next Best: #3 Last Mistake 5-2 2nd
Super Add: #8 Ashley’s Mission 6-1 WON ($22.40)

7th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 6f-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #9 Blazing Honor 3-1 4th
Next Best: #2 Miss Hanky Panky 2-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 Angel Wave 7-2 5th
Super Add: #6 Spiritual Tune 12-1 WON ($16.80)

8th: S.ALW, 3+, 1m (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Polished 2-1 3rd
Best Value: #1 Web Gem 5-1 6th
Next Best: #7 Harmonizer 7-2 2nd
Super Add: #6 Clear Faith 5-2 WON ($8.70)

9th: NYB-MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 1m-T (Super)

Most Likely: #2 (POE) Late SCR
Next Best: #8 G. A. Empress 4-1 WON
Exotics Use: #11 Fiddlers Wildheart 4-1 2nd
Super Add: #9 No Imagination 7-2 3rd

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 2-3-5
7: 1-2-9
8: 1-5
9: 2/SCR–8-9-11

3x3x2x4 = $72

Had a brutal day wagering losing several hundred, but a fabulous time overall on a thoroughly beautiful day at Pimlico. Hope you did OK… Congratulations to the particularly affable connections of Lookin at Lucky on an exciting Preakness win. Al Stall (Blame), Mike Stidham (Comedero), Alan Goldberg (Strike a Deal), Bob Baffert and much more Monday on ‘At the Races’! $38k carryover at Belmont looks interesting…

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: MSW, 3+, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Pow Wow 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #3 Bellhouse 12-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Daimon’s Tale 5-2 3rd
Super Add: #8 Graysonia 4-1 WON ($15.40)

6th: CLM/N3L, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #4 Kaleigh Rose 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Serela’s Rose 4-1 4th
Exiotics Use: #8 Lovely Promise 7-2 WON ($16.40)
Super Add: #9 Kittylicious 10-1 5th

7th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Weekend Fantasy 4-1 WON ($10.20)
Next Best: #9 Loxy Lady 8-1 3rd
Best Value: #3 Sonic Sound 15-1 4th
Super Add: #7 Royal Fortune 3-1 5th

8th: NYB-OC/N1X, 3+, 10f-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #10 Cops Fever 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #8 Bishop of Nola 8-1 5th
Next Best: #3 South Fourth St. 4-1 6th
Super Add: #6 Slammin Lou 6-1 7th

9th: NYB-OC/C, 3+, 8.5f (DD)

Most Likely: #1 Groomedforvictory 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #2 Dr. D.F.C. 12-1 5th
Next Best: #3 Naughty New Yorker 3-1 4th

10th: MSW, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (Super)

Interesting group with some quality lawn breeding including Cocktail Hour (Full to Film Maker)..

Most Likely: #7 Cosset 5-2 WON ($6.60)
Best Value: #5 Cat Be Nimble 6-1 6th
Next Best: #2 Home Rule 5-1 2nd
Super Add: #10 Cocktail Hour 8-1 3rd

<$200 P6 Play:

5: 1-3-5
6: 4
7: 1-9
8: 8-10
9: 1-2
10: 2-5-7-10

3x1x2x2x2x4 = 96 x $2 = $192

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 1-3-9
8: 8-10
9: 1-2-3
10: 2-5-7-10

3x2x3x4 = $72

Good day for the most part Friday ended meekly with unfortunate incident in the Susan. Leave Saratoga in the early morning hours for Pimlico and will check back in from there… Should be a fabulous Preakness Day! Hope everyone enjoyed today anddid well. ATR streaming replay and archive at the website featuring Steve Haskin and Tom Durkin remembering Skip Away…

HI HO! PIMLICO

PRE-SCRATCHES

1st: OC/N2X, 3+, 8.5f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 SCR
Next Best: #4 Kurbat 2-1 2nd
Best Value: #1 Bank of Dad 20-1 5th
Super Add: #6 Distributor 4-1 6th

2nd: OC/N2X, 3+, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #1 Class Bopper 10-1 4th
Next Best: #11 Mikoshi 9-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 New Believer 9-2 5th
Super Add: #10 Ovechkin 15-1 9th

3rd: ALW/N1X, 3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Brutally tough group..

Most Likely: #7 Early Star 7-2 5th
Best Value: #9 Baiano 15-1 9th
Next Best: #4 Convoy Ahead 3-1 WON ($6.20)
Super Add: #6 Black Gabriel 10-1 2nd

4th: MD-S/HCP, 3+, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #9 Northpoint Costas 8-5 WON ($4.80)
Next Best: #7 No Brakes 3-1 5th
Exotics Use: #10 Court Band 5-1 7th
Super Add: #6 Money for Love 20-1 3rd

5th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Ham and Ernie 4-1 4th
Best Value: #10 Killarney Bay 10-1 6th
Next Best: #9 Work for a Cure 10-1 7th
Super Add: #7 Hold Your Money 20-1 12th

6th: Chick Lang (G3), 3yo, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Comedero 7-5 WON ($3.40)
Best Value: #5 Latigo Shore 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #4 Quiet Invader 5-2 3rd

7th: James Murphy, 3yo, 1m-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Beau Choix 5-1 WON ($6.80)
Best Value: #8 SCR
Next Best: #1 (POE) Cat Park 4-1 2nd
Super Add: #5 Kera’s Kitten 8-1 7th

8th: Schaefer (G3), 3+, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Understatement 3-1 7th
Next Best: #7 Blame 8-5 WON ($4.40)
Best Value: #2 No Advantage 15-1 2nd
Super Add: #9 Flying Private 4-1 5th

<$75 P4 Play:

5: 1-2-5-7-9-10
6: 3-4-5
7: 2–8/SCR
8: 3-7

6x3x2x2 = $72

9th: Gallorette (G3), F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #5 Quiet Meadow 10-1 2nd
Most Likely: #4 Rainbow View 1-1 WON ($3.80)
Exotics Use: #9 Way With Words 20-1 6th
Super Add: #3 Ave 5-1 3rd

10th: Maryland Sprint H. (G3), 3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Ravalo 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #11 Half Metal Jacket 9-2 9th
Exotics Use: #3 Roaring Lion 6-1 2nd
Super Add: #6 Celtic Innis 12-1 10th

11th: Dixie (G2), 3+, 9f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #1 Wesley 6-1 7th
Next Best: #4 Just as Well 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #9 Rahystrada 6-1 3rd
Super Add: #5 Forgotten Dynasty 10-1 4th

12th: 135th Preakness S. (G1), 3yo, 9.5f (DD, Super, Super High 5)

Most Likely: #8 Super Saver (5-2): Derby winner seems well-suited to making any adjustment.. 8th
Next Best: #10 Paddy O’Prado (9-2): Being overlooked but owns valuable asset of tractability.. 6th
Best Value: #11 First Dude (20-1): Other Romans colt also certain value, working bullets, keeps Ramon.. 2nd
Super Add: #2 Schoolyard Dreams (15-1): Ryan ITM 5 of 8 this oval including with Musket Man (’09).. 9th

<$75 P4 Play:

9: 4-5-9
10: 3-7-11
11: 1-4-5-9
12: 8-10

3x3x4x2 = $72

13th: MSW, 3yo, 6f (Super, Super High 5)

Best Value: #4 SCR
Next Best: #5 Lacrosse Moon 3-1 4th
Exotics Use: #11 Mister Warbucks 15-1 5th
Super Add: #10 Granted Ruler 6-1 WON ($7.40)
High 5 Play: #7 Devilish Gait 10-1 2nd

Thursday’s action turned into a teeth-gnasher, as Alan Goldberg turf debuter Humble Song upset the 9th at Belmont at 18-1 costing the P4 and a nice P6 conso. Upon further inspection, the $140k KEE September ’08 purchase was indeed eligible for a turf jump-up as a half to the nice grass stakes winner Around the Cape. Ninth race ‘Best Value’ top tab Hear Her Roar was moving best but arrived too late to produce the desired mutuels. Earlier, I certainly felt right about the suspicions I had for Biz Jet in the 5th, and the $28.80 tote on ‘Best Value’ second choice Hot Trip helped the day along. But, I chose to leave her off the P6 ticket which proved the difference in cashing a conso or not cashing one. Of course I’d be a lot more upset about running 2nd with Hear Her Roar in the nightcap had I been alive for the jackpot at that point… Hope you did well as it wasn’t a bad day overall.

Preakness Weekend arrives and the spectre of another day threatened by potential weather issues arrives with it. Serious chance for afternoon thunderstorms today, so let’s hope for the best. The good news is that Saturday appears safe from any problem from the elements. Strong cards have been assembled by MJC Racing Secretary Georgeanne Hale for these two biggest days in the Chesapeake, despite budget and horse population problems. It should be a great couple of days, and I’m looking forward to getting down to Pimlico Saturday. Full look at the Black-Eyed Susan card action below, but check back later as I’ll monitor the weather regarding the turf and any potential sloppy track inclusions that may arrise from a downpour. Full weekend coverage on ATR this afternoon!

HI HO! PIMLICO

POST SCRATCHES (12:45am)

1st: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 6f (DD, Super)

Best Value: #8 Call of a Lion 10-1 WON ($18.20)
Most Likely: #2 Yogi’ssplashofgold 2-1 3rd
Next Best: #6 Tidal Change 9-2 6th
Super Add: #3 Regretable Romance 8-1 4th

2nd: MD-S/HCP, F&M-3+, 8.5f (P3, Super)

Most Likely: #11 With Purpose 5-1 WON ($8.80)
Next Best: #6 Swear Allegiance 9-2 2nd
Best Value: #4 Goodness Greatness 8-1 9th
Super Add: #2 May One 4-1 6th

3rd: OC/N2X, 3+, 5f-T (P3, Super)

First of 4 turf sprints on the day..

Most Likely: #1 Titanic Win 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #14 Wildcat Jessie 20-1 10th
Next Best: #8 Lycurgus 6-1 7th
Super Add: #12 My Bullet 6-1 WON ($15.40)

4th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 6f (P4, P3, Super)

A little hard to understand including charity race with retired riders in P4 sequence..

Most Likely: #5 Rasher 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #6 Brogue 6-1 6th
Next Best: #7 Chapel of Love 4-1 2nd
Super Add: #4 Mass Destruction 10-1 4th

5th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Back to Therapy 2-1 2nd
Best Value: #7 Staged Affair 8-1 5th
Next Best: #3 Alwaysacontest 7-2 WON ($7.40)
Super Add: #5 Gift From the Sea 8-1 6th

6th: 11th Very One, F&M-3+, 5f-T (P3, Super)

As usual with turf sprint stakes, the favorites look like standouts. But these events are always subject to possible jump up winners, so try to utilize a price or two on multi-race back-up plays, and Linda Rice happens to have two of them in Ahvee’s Destiny (SCR’D) and Lady Rizzi. I thought 20-1 Twice as Beautiful and 15-1 Always for Love were interesting bombs in here as well..

Most Likely: #2 Starfish Bay 8-5 WON ($3.80)
Best Value: #11 Lady Rizzi 8-1 4th
Next Best: #7 Canadian Ballet 3-1 5th
Super Add: #14 Always for Love 15-1 8th

7th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 8.5f (P6, P3, Super)

After the famed Bermuda interview with me on ATR, it’s too bad Kent Desormeaux didn’t land the mount here on Pink Sand!

Most Likely: #7 Squabble 4-1 WON ($6.20)
Best Value: #2 Mac Speed 10-1 5th
Next Best: #1 Alpha Darlin 9-2 7th
Super Add: #3 Dixieland Melody 5-2 3rd

<$50 P4 Play:

4: 5
5: 3-5-6-7
6: 2-7-11
7: 1-2-3-7

1x4x3x4 = $48

8th: 5th Jim McKay Turf Sprint, 3+, 5f-T (P3, Super)

Best Value: #1 Cardashi 12-1 6th
Most Likely: #10 Central City 5-1 WON ($8.40)
Next Best: #8 Hero’s Reward 4-1 3rd
Super Add: #12 Blue Sailor 6-1 5th

9th: 25th Miss Preakness, 3yo-F, 6f (P4, P3, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Vindy City WON ($5.00)
Next Best: #4 For Royalty 4th
Exotics Use: #2 High Five Gal 5th

10th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 5f-T (P3, Super)

Best Value: #7 Super Chunky 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Oh My Me My 8-1 9th
Next Best: #11 Phosphorescent 5-2 WON ($6.00)
Super Add: #12 Conceit 6-1 3rd

11th: 18th Skipat, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, Super)

Best Value: #8 All Giving 5-1 5th
Next Best: #9 SCR
Exotics Use: #10 Rate of Exchange 8-1 6th

12th: 86th Black-Eyed Susan (G2), 3yo-F, 9f (DD, Susan-Preakness Double, Super)

Most Likely: #1 No Such Word 7-2 2nd
Next Best: #6 Tidal Pool 8-5 3rd
Best Value: #2 Seeking the Title 5-1 DNF-Incident
Super Add: #5 Harissa 5-1 4th

<$75 P4 Play:

9: 4-5
10: 4-7-11
11: 8-9/SCR-10
12: 1-6 (2-5)

2x3x3x2 = 36 x $2 = $72
(ALT: 2x3x3x4 = 72 x $1 = $72)

<$50 Susan-Preakness Double Plays:

A: 1 with 8 = 1 x $20 = $20
B: 1 with 7-10-11 = 3 x $4 = $12
C: 2-5-6 with 8 = 3 x $3 = $9
D: 2-5-6 with 7-10-11 = 9 x $1 = $9

13th: 37th Hilltop, 3yo-F, 8.5f-T (Super, Super High 5)

Most Likely: #6 Smart Seattle 3-1 4th
Best Value: #5 Joharmony 5-1 WON ($6.60)
Next Best: #11 Potosina 7-2 3rd (DQ’d)
Exotics Use: #8 Summer Shade 10-1 6th

Some solid opinions of the late action at Belmont Wednesday, but nothing I was thinking was going to land the enormous quad which brought back more than $9,000 ($1). Jimmy Wright’s tough to use Kingsdale Ocean wired the nightcap with strong handling from Jorgie Chavez who got his first tally of the meet with the effort. Earlier prices in the 4th and 5th had already set up a carryover, so today’s P6 starts out with $23k in the kitty. Very good pair of ALW’s inside the late P4 at Churchill today as well. Hope you did OK yesterday and are getting excited about The Susie-Preakness action. Steve Crist, Steve Haskin, Rich Eng, Tony Black, Nick Tammaro, Brian Spencer, Jeff Siegel and/or Laffit Pincay III all on ‘ATR’ today!

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: CLM, 3+, 1m (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Am curious at what point the Rudy Rodriguez magic begins to fade… or is stymied? Imagine having all this training talent to win at 48% and wasting all that time riding..

Best Value: #7 Smile of Success 12-1 4th
Most Likely: #1 Timber Cruise 8-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Mr. Unstoppable 7-2 5th
Super Add: #5 Metulla 8-1 WON

5th: OC/N1X, 3yo-F, 8.5f (G/S, P3, DD)

Not that enamored with .50 on the dollar Biz Jet who didn’t return to the worktab for more than three weeks after the nice fig Gulfstream MDN-breaker. Horse behind her that day ran 72 BSF next out, and only Will Phipps’ 6th place runner (Doe Run; #1a-AE in 8th today) has returned to win (1m-T MSW at Tampa-73 BSF). The horses Biz Jet faced in her debut (2nd) have turned out to be nothing special either with just Diosa Indian winning from that heat, (a 65 Beyer performance wiring slugs at DEL). The single everyone will use and the most likely winner, but will you be surprised if she faulters?

Most Likely: #6 Biz Jet 1-2 4th
Next Best: #1 Hot Trip 5-1 WON
Exotics Use: #3 Cape Cod Carrie 6-1 5th

6th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Distant Strike 3-1 WON
Best Value: #8 Key Victory 5-1 4th
Next Best: #9 Live On the Edge 7-2
Super Add: #4 Actor’s Groove 20-1 2nd

7th: CLM/N1Y, F&M-3+, 6f-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #9 Hangingonaprayer 3-1 WON
Best Value: #5 Southside Babe 5-1 4th
Next Best: #7 SCR
Super Add: #3 Eightyfive S 8-1 3rd

8th: OC/N1X, 3yo-F, 8.5f-T (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Protesting 5-2 WON
Next Best: #6 Vee 5-1 3rd
Best Value: #3 Rhys 10-1 4th
Super Add: #1 Mehndi 12-1

9th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 6f-IT (Super)

Yeesh.. Some way to end the multis. Bad bunch of coconuts..

Best Value: #4 Hear Her Roar 6-1 2nd
Most Likely: #10 Alwaysinmydreams 4-1 4th
Next Best: #7 Conseated Lady 5-2 9th
Super Add: #1 Charmed 6-1 5th

<$200 P6 Play:

4: 1-4-5-7
5: 6
6: 5-8-9
7: 5-9
8: 6-7
9: 4-10

4x1x3x2x2x2 = 96 x $2 = $192

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 4-5-8-9
7: 3-5-9
8: 3-6-7
9: 4-10

4x3x3x2 = $72

CHURCHILL DOWNS

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: MDN CLM, 3+, 7f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Warshaw 5-2 4th
Best Value: #8 Big in Argentina 8-1 8th
Next Best: #9 Mayor Tom 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #7 Be Rich 10-1 3rd

7th: ALW/N1X, 3yo-F, 8.5f-T (P3, Super)

Best Value: #10 La Gran Bailadora 5-1 5th
Next Best: #6 Snow Top Mountain 3-1 WON
Exotics Use: #3 Maestro Miss 5-1 6th
Super Add: #8 Duomo 6-1 4th

8th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Land of the Giants 5-2 5th
Best Value: #6 Zion 15-1 6th
Next Best: #7 Headache 3-1 4th
Super Add: #5 Baryshnikov 12-1 7th

9th: CLM, 3+, 5.5f (Super, Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #2 Forest Lord 3-1 4th
Next Best: #7 Home of the Gold 7-2 5th
Exotics Use: #1 Betatron 6-1
Super Add: #10 G Areyoukidding 5-1 WON

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 1-7-8-9
7: 3-6-10
8: 3-6-7-8
9: 1-2-7

4x3x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72