3-year-old Recap - Updated Derby Chances

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

My only issue with the first list was his significantly underestimating the chances of new contenders emerging from the pack. Now his revised line seems to confirm my position.

--Dunbar

Well - the percentages change as the information changes.

Lets look at the recent devlopments ...

* The Louisianna Derby was won by Pants on Fire with Nehro 2nd - one would have been about 30/1 if uncoupled - the other was that type of price.

* The Sunland Derby was won by a horse who ran for a Maiden Claiming tag recently at the current SA meet.

* The Spiral was won by a true synthetic horse who still has never run on dirt.

* The horse who unquestionably ran the best race in the Fla Derby - was trading at 250/1 odds on Betfair.

* The Ill Derby was pretty Ill.

* The SA Derby saw two morning line favorites scratch due to physical setbacks. The winner, recently won a maiden race.

* The Wood Memorial saw a 1/9 favorite go down in defeat.

* Some highly regarded horses have fallen to injuries.

Lets say the Arkansas Derby is run like truly the definitive Derby prep race - and two horses step up and run great races. A strong performance by The Factor - and just his precense itself in the KY Derby badly hurts Sheckleford's Derby chances. Couple that with a physical setback for Midnight Interlude - and all of a sudden you could be back at 5% again - or possibly even under.

It's a lot easier and less tricky doing these fair value % lines for actual races than it is for this - that's for sure. You're dealing with lightly raced 3yo's - at a time when trainers don't want to run their good horses. Hell, they don't even want to put the good 3yo's through halfway brisk workouts. I think Uncle Mo has what - two easy workouts of 5f - and none beyond that this year.

Certainly though - your opinion proved right so far.