3-year-old Recap - Updated Derby Chances

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Uncle Mo (18.50%)
Dialed In (14.50%)
The Factor (12.50%)
Midnight Interlude (7.50%)
Elite Alex (6%)
Toby's Corner (4.50%)
Mucho Macho Man (4.25%)
Silver Medallion (4%)
Soldat (3.5%)
Sheckleford (3.25%)
Santiva (2.50%)
Archarcharch (2.50%)
Sway Away (2.50%)
Jaycito (2.00%)
Nehro (1.75%)
Astrology (1.50%)
Mr. Commons (1%)
Arthur's Tale (1%)
Decisive Moment (0.80%)
Pants on Fire (0.80%)
Animal Kingdom (0.80%)
Bretheren (0.50%)
Stay Thirsty (0.33%)
Twice the Appeal (0.25%)
Joe Vann (0.25%)
Watch Me Go (0.05%)

The Rest: 3.75%

DrugS, in your first list on Mar 12, you listed 27 horses, and you gave "The Rest" a 5% chance to win. I posted that I thought 5% was much too low a figure. You disagreed.

In your current list, there are 9 horses individually listed that came from "The Rest" of your 3/12 list, and you are now giving them a combined chance of winning of about 15.5%. And there is still another 3.75% chance given to the current "Rest" of the horses. That suggests that the horses in your 3/12 "The Rest" group had a 19% chance to win, not a 5% chance to win.

btw, I like these efforts a lot. It beats the hell out of someone posting "I really like so-and-so" or "so-and-so has no chance".

--Dunbar

[Indian Charlie]

Hindsight.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Hindsight.

Hindsight? Well, yes. How else do you resolve arguments than by looking at results? How do you learn anything other than by seeing what happens to your predictions? (and yes, I made my own prediction at the time of DrugS's earlier posts.)

The argument was about how much impact under-the-radar horses (those in DrugS's "Rest" group) would have on the Derby. I used 10 years of 'hindsight', aka data, to argue that those off-the-list horses would turn out to have a much greater chance of winning the Derby than the 5% chance that DrugS estimated. I suggested 10-15% as a more realistic figure, based on studying 10 years of KD Future Wager data. Now, less than a month later, DrugS's own figures put it at about 19%.

Please take a look at our posts in that thread:

http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=41384

I respect DrugS's capping, or I wouldn't have bothered making such detailed posts in that thread. It takes some work to put together a coherent line like he's been doing. I'm sure his overall ability to rate the relative chances of the top 25-30 contenders is far better than anything I could come up with. My only issue with the first list was his significantly underestimating the chances of new contenders emerging from the pack. Now his revised line seems to confirm my position.

--Dunbar

[DaTruth]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

DrugS, in your first list on Mar 12, you listed 27 horses, and you gave "The Rest" a 5% chance to win. I posted that I thought 5% was much too low a figure. You disagreed.

In your current list, there are 9 horses individually listed that came from "The Rest" of your 3/12 list, and you are now giving them a combined chance of winning of about 15.5%. And there is still another 3.75% chance given to the current "Rest" of the horses. That suggests that the horses in your 3/12 "The Rest" group had a 19% chance to win, not a 5% chance to win.

btw, I like these efforts a lot. It beats the hell out of someone posting "I really like so-and-so" or "so-and-so has no chance".

--Dunbar

I'm sure he is up all night trying to decide whether he should give a horse a 1% chance or a 0.8% chance.

[justindew]

I think I found The_Fat_Man. I was watching a replay of the Wood on YouTube, and I noticed this pearl in the comments section:

Uncle Mo has PLENTY of wins. I'm glad another horse had a chance to win. That said, I hope Mo and all the other horses came out sound and will try their best in the Derby.

Case closed. Glad I could help.

[trackrat59]

Looking at this list I just had a thought. Going by names alone, I hope Pants On Fire wins the Derby. Then wins the Preakness and then on to the Triple Crown. This would bring just as much attention to racing as Z did, if not more.

Can you just imagine the names of his offspring? OY!

Also, going into the Belmont someone would come up with a song, you know, like Pants On The Ground. It would be on YouTube and then a hit from there. Imagine the fun.

Pants would even get his own Blog and Facebook page.

Oh gosh, get this one. A big ad campaign like Know Mo. Only this one would be No Pants.

You see the potential here?

[GPK]

Originally Posted by trackrat59

Looking at this list I just had a thought. Going by names alone, I hope Pants On Fire wins the Derby. Then wins the Preakness and then on to the Triple Crown. This would bring just as much attention to racing as Z did, if not more.

Can you just imagine the names of his offspring? OY!

Also, going into the Belmont someone would come up with a song, you know, like Pants On The Ground. It would be on YouTube and then a hit from there. Imagine the fun.

Pants would even get his own Blog and Facebook page.

Oh gosh, get this one. A big add campaign like Know Mo. Only this one would be No Pants.

You see the potential here?

I prefer a big subtract campaign, but to each his own

[trackrat59]

fixed, thanks

[Travis Stone]

The Factor is dubious going 10f's with his running style in the Derby, but he's the only horse maintaining any resemblance of consistent form that is triple digit figure worthy. Crazy year.