4/3 (AQU): Carter, Wood (G1's); Bay Shore, Excelsior (G3's)

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

The headon at CALRACING terminates before they hit the turn so it's hard to know for certain but it appears that AA was under heavy restraint almost the entire run down the backstretch, the only horse being restrained, and that JB had an inside run in the lane. Now, after witnessing any number of horses make sustained runs/hang on on the inside, I'd sort of hesitate before seeing anything in JB's race. Factor in the slow pace and he basically got a nice trip -- allowing that he was wide on the 1st turn, of course.

Maybe AA has distance limitations but I don't see where today's performance indicates this.

I can't particularly argue with that, and the pace clearly did him in, but I just don't think someone should blame the ride. He has one run...which is why the Gotham ( with a fast pace pace ) set up well for him and today's race didn't.

You're right that today's race doesn't show distance limitations, and maybe I am projecting incorrectly, but horses with one quick burst like he has often aren't more effective the longer they go. However, given the likely pace scenerio in the Derby he could certainly be the one who is a distant second to Eskendereya ( or fill out the Eskendereya-Lookin at Lucky tri ).

Given Eskendereya stays sound, and doesn't get knocked over, this Derby is a foregone conclusion. It's a man among boys.