4/3 (AQU): Carter, Wood (G1's); Bay Shore, Excelsior (G3's)

the_fat_man · #1 04-03-2010, 07:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Awesome Act, as evidenced by the Gotham, has a short burst of speed, and the ride hardly cost him second money. Maybe the pace did....but more likely it was his distance limitations.....or relative lack of talent. Jackson Bend ran MUCH better than he did.

The headon at CALRACING terminates before they hit the turn so it's hard to know for certain but it appears that AA was under heavy restraint almost the entire run down the backstretch, the only horse being restrained, and that JB had an inside run in the lane. Now, after witnessing any number of horses make sustained runs/hang on on the inside, I'd sort of hesitate before seeing anything in JB's race. Factor in the slow pace and he basically got a nice trip -- allowing that he was wide on the 1st turn, of course.

Maybe AA has distance limitations but I don't see where today's performance indicates this.

blackthroatedwind · #2 04-03-2010, 09:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

The headon at CALRACING terminates before they hit the turn so it's hard to know for certain but it appears that AA was under heavy restraint almost the entire run down the backstretch, the only horse being restrained, and that JB had an inside run in the lane. Now, after witnessing any number of horses make sustained runs/hang on on the inside, I'd sort of hesitate before seeing anything in JB's race. Factor in the slow pace and he basically got a nice trip -- allowing that he was wide on the 1st turn, of course.

Maybe AA has distance limitations but I don't see where today's performance indicates this.

I can't particularly argue with that, and the pace clearly did him in, but I just don't think someone should blame the ride. He has one run...which is why the Gotham ( with a fast pace pace ) set up well for him and today's race didn't.

You're right that today's race doesn't show distance limitations, and maybe I am projecting incorrectly, but horses with one quick burst like he has often aren't more effective the longer they go. However, given the likely pace scenerio in the Derby he could certainly be the one who is a distant second to Eskendereya ( or fill out the Eskendereya-Lookin at Lucky tri ).

Given Eskendereya stays sound, and doesn't get knocked over, this Derby is a foregone conclusion. It's a man among boys.

randallscott35 · #3 04-03-2010, 09:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I can't particularly argue with that, and the pace clearly did him in, but I just don't think someone should blame the ride. He has one run...which is why the Gotham ( with a fast pace pace ) set up well for him and today's race didn't.

You're right that today's race doesn't show distance limitations, and maybe I am projecting incorrectly, but horses with one quick burst like he has often aren't more effective the longer they go. However, given the likely pace scenerio in the Derby he could certainly be the one who is a distant second to Eskendereya ( or fill out the Eskendereya-Lookin at Lucky tri ).

Given Eskendereya stays sound, and doesn't get knocked over, this Derby is a foregone conclusion. It's a man among boys.

Really? You think he's head and shoulders better? The only horse I thought that of was FuPeg and he needed a great trip to beat Aptitude and then got trounced in the Preakness. No such thing in a 20 horse field.

ateamstupid · #4 04-03-2010, 10:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Really? You think he's head and shoulders better? The only horse I thought that of was FuPeg and he needed a great trip to beat Aptitude and then got trounced in the Preakness. No such thing in a 20 horse field.

Who's close to Eskendereya right now? The horse's tactical speed should keep him out of significant trouble. If he breaks OK, I don't think he loses.

philcski · #5 04-03-2010, 10:03 PM

Line of the day: Eskendereya- Egyptian for "I owe Fifth Third a couple billion dollars"

ateamstupid · #6 04-03-2010, 10:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski

Line of the day: Eskendereya- Egyptian for "I owe Fifth Third a couple billion dollars"

whose was that?

philcski · #7 04-03-2010, 10:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

whose was that?

No idea. Got it in a retweet. Still funny though

NTamm1215 · #8 04-03-2010, 10:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Who's close to Eskendereya right now? The horse's tactical speed should keep him out of significant trouble. If he breaks OK, I don't think he loses.

I think you're exactly right. I wonder if he'll have trouble potentially being farther off the pace but I really don't think he will. As long as Johnny V avoids watching tape of Point Given I like his chances.

NT

Cannon Shell · #9 04-03-2010, 10:06 PM

PG just declared him the TC winner in the Giants Causeway thread...

You KNOW what that means......

RockHardTen1985 · #10 04-03-2010, 10:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

PG just declared him the TC winner in the Giants Causeway thread...

You KNOW what that means......

Chuckles, a while back... I mean a while back you told me a Giants Causeway would NEVER win a Grade 1 on dirt. Do you remember that? I mean Heatseeker already should have, but now today, today it happens.