3-year-old Recap - Updated Derby Chances

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

You're dealing with lightly raced 3yo's - at a time when trainers don't want to run their good horses. Hell, they don't even want to put the good 3yo's through halfway brisk workouts.

That's why I think it is infinitely easier to play the lower levels of this sport nowadays than to play most graded stakes races. At the $20k claimer level the horses actually run, so there's some info to go on.
Has Mo regressed significantly and permanently from his 2yo form or is he just not in shape because of his schedule? Who the hell knows? And that's the case with a lot of "G1-caliber" horses these days. When they only run five times a year, it makes it awfully hard to figure out what one sub-par performance really means.