Derby Preps, Big Cap, C/O’s and more..
By kasept. Filed in Uncategorized |
GULFSTREAM PARK
POST-SCRATCHES
6th: 30th Swale (G2), 3yo, 7f (P3, DD)
Most Likely: #1 Daredevil 4-5 2nd
Best Value: #8 Bluegrass Singer 8-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Ready for Rye 9-2 WON ($14.60)
Exotics Use: #3 X Y Jet 4-1 6th
7th: MSW, 3yo, 1m (Rainbow 6, P3, DD)
Most Likely: #1 Wisecracker 3-5 2nd
Next Best: #5 Unbridled Juan 9-2 WON ($8.20)
Best Value: #2 Semblance of Order 15-1 6th
Exotics Use: #9 Seeking Alpha 5-1 3rd
8th: MSW, 3yo, 5.5f (P5, P3, DD)
Another very good MDN group going short and have to think firsters Tilted Halo (Plesa & Paco) and Chipit (Pletcher & Castellano) duel early. Tilted Halo is half to MGSW Old Forester among other quickish sibs. Golden Boot (Md’O) is out of G3W High Button Shoes and should improve 2nd time out and moving to dirt. His half brother Buck Benny (Dynaformer) happens to run in the 5th. Salsa Dog debuts for Miah Englehart and is a FULL brother to Conquest Two Step who of course headlines the San Carlos later at SA. Working well for bow and GSW sibling did win at first asking at today’s trip. All this said, Centauro Star has been gelded since strong but problematic unveiling and has worked sharply at ‘GPW’ for return. Gets Saez. Deep, fun betting affair..
Most Likely: #11 Centauro Star 8-1 6th
Best Value: #5 Golden Boot 15-1 8th
Next Best: #2 Chipit 5-2 WON ($6.80)
Exotics Use: #10 Salsa Dog 12-1 7th
9th: 33rd Palm Beach (G3), 3yo, 8.5f-T/115′ (P4, P3, DD)
Most Likely: #5 Night Prowler 2-1 5th
Best Value: #9 Divisidero 4-1 3rd
Next Best: #6 Croninthebarbarian 5-2 8th
Exotics Use: #8 Eh Cumpari 9-2 WON ($15.40)
10th: 75th Gulfstream Park H. (G2), 4+, 1m (P3, DD)
Most Likely: #5 Private Zone 6-5 2nd
Best Value: #6 Valid 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 Honor Code 3-1 WON ($7.00)
11th: OC/C, 4+, 6f (DD)
Brutally tough group to decipher with perhaps 8 of the 14 looking win-eligible. Pick and pray..
Best Value: #14 Joh’s Gone Wild 20-1 14th
Next Best: #3 Catalactic 8-1 10th
Exotics Use: #7 French Quarter 20-1 WON ($40.20)
Super Add: #12 Flash Paws 12-1 6th
12th: MSW, 3yo, 7.5f-T/48′ (Super Hi-5)
Most Likely: #6 Force the Pass 2-1 WON ($4.00)
Best Value: #2 Weekend Express 10-1 2nd
Next Best: #12 Dujac 3-1 5th
Exotics Use: #10 Boca Scuttlebutt 15-1 7th
Super/Hi-5: #1 Able Archer 20-1 10th
P5 Grid:
8: 5-11 (A), 2-10 (B), 1-8 (C)
9: 5 (A), 6-9 (B), 3-8 (C)
10: 5 (A), 1-6 (B), 2 (C)
11: 3-14 (A), 7-12 (B), 4-5-6-9-11-13 (C)
12: 6 (A), 2-12 (B), 1-10 (C)
Simple (A+B): 4x3x3x4x3 = 216 x .50 = $108
Full (A/B/C): $86
All A Entries
1 $0.50 pick P5: 5,11 with 5 with 5 with 3,14 with 6 – $2.00
A’s with One B
2 $0.50 pick P5: 2,10 with 5 with 5 with 3,14 with 6 – $2.00
3 $0.50 pick P5: 5,11 with 6,9 with 5 with 3,14 with 6 – $4.00
4 $0.50 pick P5: 5,11 with 5 with 1,6 with 3,14 with 6 – $4.00
5 $0.50 pick P5: 5,11 with 5 with 5 with 7,12 with 6 – $2.00
6 $0.50 pick P5: 5,11 with 5 with 5 with 3,14 with 2,12 – $4.00
A’s with Two B’s
7 $0.50 pick P5: 2,10 with 6,9 with 5 with 3,14 with 6 – $4.00
8 $0.50 pick P5: 2,10 with 5 with 1,6 with 3,14 with 6 – $4.00
9 $0.50 pick P5: 2,10 with 5 with 5 with 7,12 with 6 – $2.00
10 $0.50 pick P5: 2,10 with 5 with 5 with 3,14 with 2,12 – $4.00
11 $0.50 pick P5: 5,11 with 6,9 with 1,6 with 3,14 with 6 – $8.00
12 $0.50 pick P5: 5,11 with 6,9 with 5 with 7,12 with 6 – $4.00
13 $0.50 pick P5: 5,11 with 6,9 with 5 with 3,14 with 2,12 – $8.00
14 $0.50 pick P5: 5,11 with 5 with 1,6 with 7,12 with 6 – $4.00
15 $0.50 pick P5: 5,11 with 5 with 1,6 with 3,14 with 2,12 – $8.00
16 $0.50 pick P5: 5,11 with 5 with 5 with 7,12 with 2,12 – $4.00
A’s with One C
17 $0.50 pick P5: 1,8 with 5 with 5 with 3,14 with 6 – $2.00
18 $0.50 pick P5: 5,11 with 3,8 with 5 with 3,14 with 6 – $4.00
19 $0.50 pick P5: 5,11 with 5 with 2 with 3,14 with 6 – $2.00
20 $0.50 pick P5: 5,11 with 5 with 5 with 4,5,6,9,11,13 with 6 – $6.00
21 $0.50 pick P5: 5,11 with 5 with 5 with 3,14 with 1,10 – $4.00
Total: $88.00
P4 Grid:
9: 5 (A), 6-9 (B), 3-8 (C)
10: 5-6 (A), 1-2 (B), – (C)
11: 3-14 (A), 7-12 (B), 1-2-4-5-6-9-10-11-12-13 (C)
12: 6 (A), 2-12 (B), 1-10 (C)
Simple (A+B): 3x4x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
Full (A/B/C): $72 (With All A and A with 1 B plays at $1; $58 if all at .50)
All A Entries
1 $1.00 pick P4: 5 with 5,6 with 3,14 with 6 – $4.00
A’s with One B
2 $1.00 pick P4: 6,9 with 5,6 with 3,14 with 6 – $8.00
3 $1.00 pick P4: 5 with 1,2 with 3,14 with 6 – $4.00
4 $1.00 pick P4: 5 with 5,6 with 7,12 with 6 – $4.00
5 $1.00 pick P4: 5 with 5,6 with 3,14 with 2,12 – $8.00
A’s with Two B’s
6 $0.50 pick P4: 6,9 with 1,2 with 3,14 with 6 – $4.00
7 $0.50 pick P4: 6,9 with 5,6 with 7,12 with 6 – $4.00
8 $0.50 pick P4: 6,9 with 5,6 with 3,14 with 2,12 – $8.00
9 $0.50 pick P4: 5 with 1,2 with 7,12 with 6 – $2.00
10 $0.50 pick P4: 5 with 1,2 with 3,14 with 2,12 – $4.00
11 $0.50 pick P4: 5 with 5,6 with 7,12 with 2,12 – $4.00
A’s with One C
12 $0.50 pick P4: 3,8 with 5,6 with 3,14 with 6 – $4.00
13 $0.50 pick P4: 5 with 5,6 with 1,2,4,5,6,8,9,10,11,13 with 6 – $10.00
14 $0.50 pick P4: 5 with 5,6 with 3,14 with 1,10 – $4.00
Total: $72.00
TAMPA BAY DOWNS
POST-SCRATCHES
8th: 24th Challenger, 4+, 8.5f (P5, P3, DD)
Most Likely: #7 Midnight Cello 7-2 4th
Next Best: #4 General a Rod 3-1 WON ($5.60)
Best Value: #1 Old Time Hockey 10-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Mister Mardi Gras 9-2 7th
9th: 32nd Florida Oaks (G3), 3yo-F, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)
Most Likely: #7 Consumer Credit 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #6 Lismore 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 Quality Rocks 7-2 WON ($9.20)
Exotics Use: #4 Tiger Ride 6-1 4th
10th: 17th Hillsborough (G3), F&M-4+, 9f-T (P3, DD)
Most Likely: #12 Sparkling Review 6-1 9th
Next Best: #2 Stephanie’s Kitten 2-1 WON ($4.80)
Best Value: #6 Maria Maria 30-1 4th
Exotics Use: #9 Filimbi 5-2 5th
Super Add: #1 Ball Dancing 7-2 2nd
.50 TRI: 12 with 1-2-5-6-9 with 1-2-5-6-9 (1x5x4 = 20 x .50 = $10)
11th: 35th Tampa Bay Derby (G2), 3yo, 8.5f (DD)
Most Likely: #2 Ocean Knight 2-1 7th
Best Value: #7 Great Stuff 20-1 5th
Next Best: #3 Carpe Diem 8-5 WON ($4.00)
Exotics Use: #9 Danzig Moon 12-1 4th
AQUEDUCT
POST-SCRATCHES
9th: 63rd Gotham S. (G3), 3yo, 8.5f (DD)
Most Likely: #3 Classy Class 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #8 Tencendur 8-1 4th
Next Best: #4 El Kabeir 8-5 WON ($4.40)
Exotics Use: #5 Lieutenant Colonel 5-1 8th
SANTA ANITA
POST-SCRATCHES
3rd: MSW, 3yo-F, 6.5f-T (P3, DD)
Most Likely: #4 Emyvale Court 9-5 2nd
Best Value: #2 Whisk 8-1 WON ($30.20)
Next Best: #9 Revenue Virginius 6-1 8th
Exotics Use: #10 Screaming Skylar 5-1 3rd
4th: MSW, 3yo-F, 6.5f (P3, DD)
Most Likely: #5 Never Ends 9-5 2nd
Best Value: #7 Black Betsy 6-1 WON ($7.60)
Next Best: #9 Miss Centerfold 5-1 4th
Exotics Use: #1 Sweet Promises 4-1 5th
5th: OC/N1X, 4+, 6.5f (P3, DD)
Most Likely: #3 Chasintheaces 4-1 6th
Best Value: #8 May B 6-1 9th
Next Best: #10 Pulling G’s WON ($6.20)
Exotics Use: #6 Cautious Giant 6-1 4th
6th: OC/N1X, F&M-4+, 9f-T (P6, P3, DD)
$52,665 P6 C/O starts here..
Best Value: #6 Margot Machance 12-1 7th
Next Best: #1 Hug and a Kiss 7-2 5th
Exotics Use: #4 Circling 6-1 3rd
Super Add: #5 Dakota Kid 4-1 9th
7th: 78th San Felipe (G2), 3yo, 8.5f (P3, DD)
Will take chance that both Ocho Ocho Ocho and Bolo are less than at their best for this serious test. Dortmund, Lord Nelson & Prospect Park are the now players and I’ll tab under-appreciated Sir Samson (Blinkers off) as a value catalyst..
Most Likely: #3 Dortmund 8-5 WON ($3.60)
Next Best: #6 Prospect Park 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #9 Sir Samson 12-1 8th
Exotics Use: #1 Lord Nelson 4-1 4th
8th: 12th China Doll, 3yo-F, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)
Most Likely: #5 Curlin’s Fox 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #12 Mio Me 15-1 8th
Next Best: #2 She’s a Big Winner 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Spirit of Xian Gate SCR
9th: 77th San Carlos (G2), 4+, 7f (P3, DD)
Mammoth SCR’s of both Chitu & Midnight Hawk changing race shape/flow..
Most Likely: #4 Conquest Two Step 6-5 3rd
Next Best: #7 Wild Dude 9-5 WON ($5.80)
Best Value: #5 Kobe’s Back 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #9 Blues Blaster 20-1 6th
10th: 15th Frank Kilroe Mile (G1), 4+, 1m-T (DD)
Most Likely: #8 Summer Front 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #11 Za Approval 6-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Winning Prize 4-1 5th
Exotics Use: #2 Hay Dude 8-1 8th
11th: 78th Santa Anita H. (G1), 4+, 10f (Super Hi-5)
$28,316 Super Hi-5 C/O here..
Most Likely: #5 Shared Belief 3-5 WON ($2.60)
Best Value: #4 Dynamic Sky 15-1 6th
Next Best: #11 Bronzo 10-1 5th
Exotics Use: #6 Moreno 6-1 2nd
Super/Hi-5: #8 You Know I Know 30-1 7th
P6 Grid:
6: 1-6 (A), 4-5 (B), 7-11 (C)
7: 3 (A), 6 (B), 1-2-7-9 (C)
8: 5 (A), – (B), 2-7/SCR-12 (C)
9: 4-7 (A), 5 (B), 2-3-9 (C)
10: 8 (A), 3-11 (B), 2-4-6 (C)
11: 5 (A), – (B), 4-6-8-11 (C)
Simple (A+B): 4x2x1x3x3x1 = 72 x $2 = $144
Full (A/B/C): $232
All A Entries
1 $2.00 pick P6: 1,6 with 3 with 5 with 4,7 with 8 with 5 – $8.00
A’s with One B
2 $2.00 pick P6: 4,5 with 3 with 5 with 4,7 with 8 with 5 – $8.00
3 $2.00 pick P6: 1,6 with 6 with 5 with 4,7 with 8 with 5 – $8.00
4 $2.00 pick P6: 1,6 with 3 with 5 with 5 with 8 with 5 – $4.00
5 $2.00 pick P6: 1,6 with 3 with 5 with 4,7 with 3,11 with 5 – $16.00
A’s with Two B’s
6 $2.00 pick P6: 4,5 with 6 with 5 with 4,7 with 8 with 5 – $8.00
7 $2.00 pick P6: 4,5 with 3 with 5 with 5 with 8 with 5 – $4.00
8 $2.00 pick P6: 4,5 with 3 with 5 with 4,7 with 3,11 with 5 – $16.00
9 $2.00 pick P6: 1,6 with 6 with 5 with 5 with 8 with 5 – $4.00
10 $2.00 pick P6: 1,6 with 6 with 5 with 4,7 with 3,11 with 5 – $16.00
11 $2.00 pick P6: 1,6 with 3 with 5 with 5 with 3,11 with 5 – $8.00
A’s with One C
12 $2.00 pick P6: 7,11 with 3 with 5 with 4,7 with 8 with 5 – $8.00
13 $2.00 pick P6: 1,6 with 1,2,7,9 with 5 with 4,7 with 8 with 5 – $32.00
14 $2.00 pick P6: 1,6 with 3 with 2,7,12 with 4,7 with 8 with 5 – $24.00
15 $2.00 pick P6: 1,6 with 3 with 5 with 2,3,9 with 8 with 5 – $12.00
16 $2.00 pick P6: 1,6 with 3 with 5 with 4,7 with 2,4,6 with 5 – $24.00
17 $2.00 pick P6: 1,6 with 3 with 5 with 4,7 with 8 with 4,6,8,11 – $32.00
Total: $232.00
P4 Grid:
8: 5 (A), 2-7/SCR-12 (B), 4-6/SCR-8 (C)
9: 4-7 (A), 5-9 (B), 2-3-6 (C)
10: 8 (A), 3-11 (B), 2-4-6 (C)
11: 5 (A), 4-11 (B), 6-8-12 (C)
Simple (A+B): 4x4x3x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
Full (A/B/C): $70
All A Entries
1 $3.00 pick P4: 5 with 4,7 with 8 with 5 – $6.00
A’s with One B
2 $1.50 pick P4: 2,7,12 with 4,7 with 8 with 5 – $9.00
3 $1.50 pick P4: 5 with 5,9 with 8 with 5 – $3.00
4 $1.50 pick P4: 5 with 4,7 with 3,11 with 5 – $6.00
5 $1.50 pick P4: 5 with 4,7 with 8 with 4,11 – $6.00
A’s with Two B’s
6 $0.50 pick P4: 2,7,12 with 5,9 with 8 with 5 – $3.00
7 $0.50 pick P4: 2,7,12 with 4,7 with 3,11 with 5 – $6.00
8 $0.50 pick P4: 2,7,12 with 4,7 with 8 with 4,11 – $6.00
9 $0.50 pick P4: 5 with 5,9 with 3,11 with 5 – $2.00
10 $0.50 pick P4: 5 with 5,9 with 8 with 4,11 – $2.00
11 $0.50 pick P4: 5 with 4,7 with 3,11 with 4,11 – $4.00
A’s with One C
12 $0.50 pick P4: 4,6,8 with 4,7 with 8 with 5 – $3.00
13 $0.50 pick P4: 5 with 2,3,6 with 8 with 5 – $1.50
14 $0.50 pick P4: 5 with 4,7 with 2,4,6 with 5 – $3.00
15 $0.50 pick P4: 5 with 4,7 with 8 with 6,8,12 – $3.00
Total: $63.50