Week/Weekend Stakes Beyers

[Kasept]

MTH Izod Haskell S (G1): Lookin At Lucky 105 (B. Baffert/M. Garcia)
MTH Matchmaker S (G3): Unbridled Essence 89 (G. Sacco/P. Lopez)
MTH Oceanport S (G3): Get Serious 97 (J. Forbes/P. Fragoso)
MTH Regret S: Lady Alexander 94 (B. Alexander/C. Marquez)
MTH Jersey Derby: Hudson Steele 95 (T. Pletcher/J. Lezcano)
MTH Teddy Drone S: Repole Stable 98 (B. Levine/E. Castro)
MTH Majestic Light S: Omniscient 104 (S. Asmussen/C. Borel)
MTH Mongo Queen S: Rose Catherine 91 (T. Pletcher/C. DeCarlo)

SAR Diana S (G1): Proviso 97 (W. Mott/M. Smith)
SAR Jim Dandy S (G2): A Little Warm 103 (A. Dutrow/J. Velazquez)
SAR Ruffian H (G1): Malibu Prayer 103 (T. Pletcher/J. Velazquez)
SAR Fourstardave H (G2): Get Stormy 101 (T. Bush/J. Castellano)
SAR Curlin S: Winslow Homer 97 (A. Dutrow/R. Albarado)
SAR William B. Fasig S: Exclusive Scheme 80 (W. Badgett/J. Velazquez)
SAR Fleet Indian S: My Dinah 85 (K. Feron/J. Espinoza)
SAR Lucy Scribner S: Devil by Design 85 (W. Mott/K. Desormeaux)
SAR Quick Call S: Beau Choix 89 (B. Tagg/J. Castellano)
SAR Lake George S (G2): Perfect Shirl 90 (R. Attfield/J. Velazquez)
SAR Evan Shipman S: Giant Moon 90 (R. Schosberg/E. Prado)

WO Wonder Where S: Free Fee Lady 85 (R. Baker/E. Wilson)
WO Vandal S: Sensational Slam 67 (T. Pletcher/P. Husbands)
WO Deputy Minister S: Race for Gold 83 (R. Tiller/C. Sutherland)

DMR Bing Crosby S (G1): Smiling Tiger TBD (J. Bonde/V. Espinoza)
DMR San Diego H (G2): Dakota Phone 95 (J. Hollendorfer/J. Rosario)
DMR Fleet Treat S: La Nez 81 (J. Kruljac/V. Espinoza)
DMR Cougar II H (G3): Temple City 100 (C. Gaines/J. Talamo)
DMR Wickerr S: Blue Chagall 97 (J. Canani/D. Flores)

PEN PA Governor's Cup H: Chamberlain Bridge 98 (W. Calhoun/J. Theriot)
PEN Capital City S: Thunder Brew 80 (A. Pecoraro/A. Napravnik)
PEN East Hanover Township S: Awesome Son 100 (T. Kelly/F. Maysonett)
PEN Jenny Wade H: Canadian Ballet 93 (L. Rice/S. Elliott)
EVD John Franks Memorial Sales S: Reyina 51 (T. Richey/D. Simington)
PEN Red Carpet S: First Ascent 78 (L. Delacour/L. Garcia)
PHA Roanoke S: Love Ridge 77 (D. Curry/J. Ferrer)
PEN Femme Fatale S: Come Sunday 70 (J. Servis/S. Elliott)

TDN Ohio Derby(G3): Pleasant Prince 91 (W. Ward/A. Solis)

PID Windward S: Informed Decision 94 (J. Sheppard/J. Leparoux)

[parsixfarms]

The Ruffian comes up seven ticks faster than the Curlin, and the Beyer spread between the two races is only 6 points. Doesn't seem right.

[Kasept]

7/31 (SAR 2): MSW Admiral Alex 87

[hockey2315]

Awesome Son is a cool little horse.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

The Ruffian comes up seven ticks faster than the Curlin, and the Beyer spread between the two races is only 6 points. Doesn't seem right.

Agree. I was expecting more like an 11 pt BSF difference. Did they swamp the track between races?


--Dunbar

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Agree. I was expecting more like an 11 pt BSF difference. Did they swamp the track between races?


--Dunbar

Joeys Beyers had it like this.....

Ruffian 105


Curlin 93

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Agree. I was expecting more like an 11 pt BSF difference. Did they swamp the track between races?


--Dunbar

The only thing swamped between those two races was the new (very cool) Paddock Bar.

[randallscott35]

What did the Clement maiden sprinter get the other day?

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Agree. I was expecting more like an 11 pt BSF difference. Did they swamp the track between races?


--Dunbar

The difference should have been 14. The pace for the Curlin was very slow, causing Beyer to "project" a number.

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

The difference should have been 14. The pace for the Curlin was very slow, causing Beyer to "project" a number.

I'm not looking to resurrect an old discussion, but back in April, as Eskendereya was being hailed as the second coming, when people questioned the fig for the Wood, the explanation was that the splits of 24.1, 49.1, and 1:13.2 were "average." Now we're asked to believe that the fractions of the Curlin (23.3, 48.2, 1:13.2) were "very slow." The track at Saratoga on Sunday may have been a bit faster than the Aqueduct main track on Wood Memorial Day, but not enough to explain how the pace of the race (Wood) with the raw slower splits could be considered "average" while the pace of the race with the raw, faster splits (Curlin) is now deemed "very slow."

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

I'm not looking to resurrect an old discussion, but back in April, as Eskendereya was being hailed as the second coming, when people questioned the fig for the Wood, the explanation was that the splits of 24.1, 49.1, and 1:13.2 were "average." Now we're asked to believe that the fractions of the Curlin (23.3, 48.2, 1:13.2) were "very slow." The track at Saratoga on Sunday may have been a bit faster than the Aqueduct main track on Wood Memorial Day, but not enough to explain how the pace of the race (Wood) with the raw slower splits could be considered "average" while the pace of the race with the raw, faster splits (Curlin) is now deemed "very slow."

You make too much sense

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

I'm not looking to resurrect an old discussion, but back in April, as Eskendereya was being hailed as the second coming, when people questioned the fig for the Wood, the explanation was that the splits of 24.1, 49.1, and 1:13.2 were "average." Now we're asked to believe that the fractions of the Curlin (23.3, 48.2, 1:13.2) were "very slow." The track at Saratoga on Sunday may have been a bit faster than the Aqueduct main track on Wood Memorial Day, but not enough to explain how the pace of the race (Wood) with the raw slower splits could be considered "average" while the pace of the race with the raw, faster splits (Curlin) is now deemed "very slow."

Really good points.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I compiled my own pace pars for about 30 different race tracks by going back and using several thousands of races over several years.

Based on my pars - the raw pace and final numbers for the two races at Saratoga come back like this.

Winslow Homer race: 74 pace figure and 96 Final Figure

Malibu Prayer race: 117 pace figure and 110 final figure

The pace call is 6 furlongs into the race at 9fs


How anyone can possibly think the pace wasn't slow in the Winslow Homer race is beyond me.

As for what this has to do with Eskanderya's race going 9fs on AQU's main - I have absolutely no idea.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

As for what this has to do with Eskanderya's race going 9fs on AQU's main - I have absolutely no idea.

Thank you.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

As far as the raw numbers for Eskanderya's Wood Memorial ...

84 pace and 94 final

They ran a Grade 3 stakes for older males at the same distance one race earlier that day. As for that race ...

80 pace and 80 final

As for the relationship between paces at 9fs at AQU on the main and 9fs at Saratoga - an identical pace is going to yield a clocking 4/5ths faster at Saratoga than it will on the AQU main.

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

How anyone can possibly think the pace wasn't slow in the Winslow Homer race is beyond me.

Nobody here said that a 1:13.2 split for a stakes horse going 9F wasn't slow.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

Nobody here said that a 1:13.2 split for a stakes horse going 9F wasn't slow.

Assuming both of the tracks are playing right dead at par - a 1:13.40 clocking on the AQU main going 9fs is the same thing as a 1:12.60 clocking at Saratoga going 9fs on the dirt.

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Assuming both of the tracks are playing right dead at par - a 1:13.40 clocking on the AQU main going 9fs is the same thing as a 1:12.60 clocking at Saratoga going 9fs on the dirt.

And a 1:12.60 clocking for a graded stakes horse going 9F at Saratoga would be slow.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

And a 1:12.60 clocking for a graded stakes horse going 9F at Saratoga would be slow.

Yes it is - but only if you're working with the assumption that the track was playing right at par the two days in question.

Obviously the track was slower than par at AQU on Wood day ... unless you really believe a Grade 3 for older males was won with an 80 Beyer and Esk only ran a 94 while winning the Wood by a huge margin?

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Yes it is - but only if you're working with the assumption that the track was playing right at par the two days in question.

Obviously the track was slower than par at AQU on Wood day ... unless you really believe a Grade 3 for older males was won with an 80 Beyer and Esk only ran a 94 while winning the Wood by a huge margin?

The Excelsior was an absolutely ugly race, and the form of the Wood, like the Excelsior, has not exactly been flattered. I know one-turn and two-turn races can play differently, but when the Carter and Bay Shore go in 1:21 and change, I think it's hard to conclude that the track on Wood Day was seven or eight lengths slower than par.