Week/Weekend Stakes Beyers

Dunbar · #1 08-02-2010, 11:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

The Ruffian comes up seven ticks faster than the Curlin, and the Beyer spread between the two races is only 6 points. Doesn't seem right.

Agree. I was expecting more like an 11 pt BSF difference. Did they swamp the track between races?

--Dunbar

RockHardTen1985 · #2 08-02-2010, 11:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Agree. I was expecting more like an 11 pt BSF difference. Did they swamp the track between races?

--Dunbar

Joeys Beyers had it like this.....

Ruffian 105

Curlin 93

parsixfarms · #3 08-02-2010, 02:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Agree. I was expecting more like an 11 pt BSF difference. Did they swamp the track between races?

--Dunbar

The only thing swamped between those two races was the new (very cool) Paddock Bar.

randallscott35 · #4 08-02-2010, 02:18 PM

What did the Clement maiden sprinter get the other day?

randallscott35 · #5 08-03-2010, 01:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by randallscott35

What did the Clement maiden sprinter get the other day?

Anyone have this

NTamm1215 · #6 08-03-2010, 02:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Anyone have this

89

randallscott35 · #7 08-03-2010, 02:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

89

Gracias. A nice debut.

cmorioles · #8 08-02-2010, 08:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Agree. I was expecting more like an 11 pt BSF difference. Did they swamp the track between races?

--Dunbar

The difference should have been 14. The pace for the Curlin was very slow, causing Beyer to "project" a number.

parsixfarms · #9 08-02-2010, 09:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cmorioles

The difference should have been 14. The pace for the Curlin was very slow, causing Beyer to "project" a number.

I'm not looking to resurrect an old discussion, but back in April, as Eskendereya was being hailed as the second coming, when people questioned the fig for the Wood, the explanation was that the splits of 24.1, 49.1, and 1:13.2 were "average." Now we're asked to believe that the fractions of the Curlin (23.3, 48.2, 1:13.2) were "very slow." The track at Saratoga on Sunday may have been a bit faster than the Aqueduct main track on Wood Memorial Day, but not enough to explain how the pace of the race (Wood) with the raw slower splits could be considered "average" while the pace of the race with the raw, faster splits (Curlin) is now deemed "very slow."

randallscott35 · #10 08-02-2010, 09:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

I'm not looking to resurrect an old discussion, but back in April, as Eskendereya was being hailed as the second coming, when people questioned the fig for the Wood, the explanation was that the splits of 24.1, 49.1, and 1:13.2 were "average." Now we're asked to believe that the fractions of the Curlin (23.3, 48.2, 1:13.2) were "very slow." The track at Saratoga on Sunday may have been a bit faster than the Aqueduct main track on Wood Memorial Day, but not enough to explain how the pace of the race (Wood) with the raw slower splits could be considered "average" while the pace of the race with the raw, faster splits (Curlin) is now deemed "very slow."

You make too much sense

RockHardTen1985 · #11 08-02-2010, 09:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

I'm not looking to resurrect an old discussion, but back in April, as Eskendereya was being hailed as the second coming, when people questioned the fig for the Wood, the explanation was that the splits of 24.1, 49.1, and 1:13.2 were "average." Now we're asked to believe that the fractions of the Curlin (23.3, 48.2, 1:13.2) were "very slow." The track at Saratoga on Sunday may have been a bit faster than the Aqueduct main track on Wood Memorial Day, but not enough to explain how the pace of the race (Wood) with the raw slower splits could be considered "average" while the pace of the race with the raw, faster splits (Curlin) is now deemed "very slow."

Really good points.

The Indomitable DrugS · #12 08-02-2010, 09:43 PM

I compiled my own pace pars for about 30 different race tracks by going back and using several thousands of races over several years.

Based on my pars - the raw pace and final numbers for the two races at Saratoga come back like this.

Winslow Homer race: 74 pace figure and 96 Final Figure

Malibu Prayer race: 117 pace figure and 110 final figure

The pace call is 6 furlongs into the race at 9fs

How anyone can possibly think the pace wasn't slow in the Winslow Homer race is beyond me.

As for what this has to do with Eskanderya's race going 9fs on AQU's main - I have absolutely no idea.

hockey2315 · #13 08-02-2010, 09:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

As for what this has to do with Eskanderya's race going 9fs on AQU's main - I have absolutely no idea.

Thank you.

The Indomitable DrugS · #14 08-02-2010, 10:03 PM

As far as the raw numbers for Eskanderya's Wood Memorial ...

84 pace and 94 final

They ran a Grade 3 stakes for older males at the same distance one race earlier that day. As for that race ...

80 pace and 80 final

As for the relationship between paces at 9fs at AQU on the main and 9fs at Saratoga - an identical pace is going to yield a clocking 4/5ths faster at Saratoga than it will on the AQU main.

parsixfarms · #15 08-02-2010, 10:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

How anyone can possibly think the pace wasn't slow in the Winslow Homer race is beyond me.

Nobody here said that a 1:13.2 split for a stakes horse going 9F wasn't slow.

The Indomitable DrugS · #16 08-02-2010, 10:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

Nobody here said that a 1:13.2 split for a stakes horse going 9F wasn't slow.

Assuming both of the tracks are playing right dead at par - a 1:13.40 clocking on the AQU main going 9fs is the same thing as a 1:12.60 clocking at Saratoga going 9fs on the dirt.

cmorioles · #17 08-02-2010, 11:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

I'm not looking to resurrect an old discussion, but back in April, as Eskendereya was being hailed as the second coming, when people questioned the fig for the Wood, the explanation was that the splits of 24.1, 49.1, and 1:13.2 were "average." Now we're asked to believe that the fractions of the Curlin (23.3, 48.2, 1:13.2) were "very slow." The track at Saratoga on Sunday may have been a bit faster than the Aqueduct main track on Wood Memorial Day, but not enough to explain how the pace of the race (Wood) with the raw slower splits could be considered "average" while the pace of the race with the raw, faster splits (Curlin) is now deemed "very slow."

Well, I'll start by saying the races were run on completely different racetracks. Do you know that when final times are equalized, average Saratoga 6f fractions are a full 4/5ths faster than those at Aqueduct?

I'm not sure how the Wood form could be flattered since the winner is retired and he won by a football field. Jackson Bend ran 3rd in the Preakness.

parsixfarms · #18 08-02-2010, 11:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cmorioles

Well, I'll start by saying the races were run on completely different racetracks. Do you know that when final times are equalized, average Saratoga 6f fractions are a full 4/5ths faster than those at Aqueduct?

We've already had that discussion above.

cmorioles · #19 08-02-2010, 11:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

We've already had that discussion above.

I see now, Douglas handled it quite well in my stead.

parsixfarms · #20 08-03-2010, 12:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cmorioles

I see now, Douglas handled it quite well in my stead.

If I understood your post in a recent thread about figures put up the weekend of the Man O'War, I think we agree that this whole "projection" thing in slow-paced races shouldn't be done. Just let the figures fall where they may, and let the handicapper draw his or her own conclusions about the circumstances that led to the figure. A "projection" figure really becomes more a performance rating than a true speed figure.