Social Inclusion -- what would you do?

you dont turn down an 8 milllion dollar offer for the horse just to run him in the Woody Stephen. Enter him in the Belmont and try to prove to everyone you are not crazy you turned down that offer.

[Calzone Lord]

There's no clear-cut right answer to this.

The Belmont would appear the worst idea, but this horse would be extremely dangerous with a loose early lead.



Go watch the tape of his second career start, when he got loose through soft early fractions. He would have stayed 2 miles, with that trip.

Da' Tara had 3 lengths on them, after a quarter mile, in the 2008 Belmont. He drew off to win by more than 5 lengths and paid $79.00 to win.

After that blowout Belmont win by more than 5 lengths, Da' Tara was subsequently 0-for-11, failing five different times at the allowance level.

Social Inclusion was subjected to wide stalking trips chasing lively paces in both the Wood and Preakness. He's no longer feared. Horses like California Chrome and Samraat will not test him early.

Obviously, the loose lead is there for the taking, with Social Inclusion. The questions about his ability to get the distance will be to his benefit -- as rival jockeys will be less inclined to make a pre-mature move to confront him.

Personally, if he was my horse, I'd either skip the weekend or take a stab in the Belmont -- depending upon how the trainer believes he's doing coming up to this race.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

There's no clear-cut right answer to this.

The Belmont would appear the worst idea, but this horse would be extremely dangerous with a loose early lead.



Go watch the tape of his second career start, when he got loose through soft early fractions. He would have stayed 2 miles, with that trip.

Da' Tara had 3 lengths on them, after a quarter mile, in the 2008 Belmont. He drew off to win by more than 5 lengths and paid $79.00 to win.

After that blowout Belmont win by more than 5 lengths, Da' Tara was subsequently 0-for-11, failing five different times at the allowance level.

Social Inclusion was subjected to wide stalking trips chasing lively paces in both the Wood and Preakness. He's no longer feared. Horses like California Chrome and Samraat will not test him early.

Obviously, the loose lead is there for the taking, with Social Inclusion. The questions about his ability to get the distance will be to his benefit -- as rival jockeys will be less inclined to make a pre-mature move to confront him.

Personally, if he was my horse, I'd either skip the weekend or take a stab in the Belmont -- depending upon how the trainer believes he's doing coming up to this race.

Without seeing who goes in the other two races, provided those two races are what they typically are, it seems obvious that his best chance at a win is in the race he'll almost certainly get clear, the Belmont.

I think he's the only horse in there with a real shot to beat chrome.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

I think he's the only horse in there with a real shot to beat chrome.

I'm sorry, you think Social Inclusion is the only horse with a real shot to beat California Chrome in the Belmont?

If so, with all due respect, that is a horrendous opinion.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I'm sorry, you think Social Inclusion is the only horse with a real shot to beat California Chrome in the Belmont?

If so, with all due respect, that is a horrendous opinion.

Yeah, I guess.

I think the field is pretty awful, and he's handled, quite easily, all the horses he's faced already.

If you like Tonalist, I'll throw right back at you that your opinion is horrible on that.

This is all provided weird stuff doesn't happen, injuries, horrific trips, bad rides, suicidal pace, etc. None of this seems likely to happen.

I'd love to hear who you think has a real shot at beating him, and why. It doesn't have to be an in depth explanation, but man, from where I sit, he towers over these.

CC seems to love the track, I see no evidence that a soft paced 12 furlongs will be a problem at all, and his competition sucks.

It's not that I think CC is a freak, it's that I think he's freakish relative to what he's facing.

He's not even the best horse in this crop.

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Yeah, I guess.

I think the field is pretty awful, and he's handled, quite easily, all the horses he's faced already.

If you like Tonalist, I'll throw right back at you that your opinion is horrible on that.

This is all provided weird stuff doesn't happen, injuries, horrific trips, bad rides, suicidal pace, etc. None of this seems likely to happen.

I'd love to hear who you think has a real shot at beating him, and why. It doesn't have to be an in depth explanation, but man, from where I sit, he towers over these.

CC seems to love the track, I see no evidence that a soft paced 12 furlongs will be a problem at all, and his competition sucks.

It's not that I think CC is a freak, it's that I think he's freakish relative to what he's facing.

He's not even the best horse in this crop.

I'm not convinced that Tonalist is anything more than an East Coast version of Bayern.

The only prayer for bettors is that Samraat sets a quick pace (assuming SI goes to the Woody Stevens), CC has to chase late, and Commanding Curve picks up the pieces. If Chrome get a soft early pace it's over early.

[Revidere]

Woody Stephens
Haskell
King's Bishop

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Yeah, I guess.

I think the field is pretty awful, and he's handled, quite easily, all the horses he's faced already.

If you like Tonalist, I'll throw right back at you that your opinion is horrible on that.

This is all provided weird stuff doesn't happen, injuries, horrific trips, bad rides, suicidal pace, etc. None of this seems likely to happen.

I'd love to hear who you think has a real shot at beating him, and why. It doesn't have to be an in depth explanation, but man, from where I sit, he towers over these.

CC seems to love the track, I see no evidence that a soft paced 12 furlongs will be a problem at all, and his competition sucks.

It's not that I think CC is a freak, it's that I think he's freakish relative to what he's facing.

He's not even the best horse in this crop.

This is basically a primer on how not to handicap.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

This is basically a primer on how not to handicap.

Thanks.

I don't have pps yet, but off the top of my head, everything I said is true.

By your reasoning, I guess you'd hold off an opinion on the 1980 Woodward.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Without seeing who goes in the other two races, provided those two races are what they typically are, it seems obvious that his best chance at a win is in the race he'll almost certainly get clear, the Belmont.

I think he's the only horse in there with a real shot to beat chrome.

Here is my post from Dougies FB last night.


I think Wicked Strong will prove to be the best 3yr old of this class. There is a lot of racing left. Its Chrome right now, for sure. But look at last year. Will Take Charge dominated the 2nd half of the year. I think Social Inclusion is dangerous if he runs. He has not had an easy lead since his monstrous win at Gulfstream. If he runs Saturday he should pull that kind of trip. My only worry w/ him is that its too much too soon. I have no doubt that he is talented enough. Those will be the 2 horses I use trying to beat Chrome in multi race bets.

[Indian Charlie]

I like wicked strongs chances.

If they move the race to aqu.

Andy, you say I am dismissive of the field, and you are right. I am because the holes in the opposition's form are enormous.

I think you, and others, are dismissive of chromes chances by seemingly fabricating this concept that he has distance issues. I have seen nothing of the sort, and, if anything, he's shown me he is better the further he goes.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

I like wicked strongs chances.

If they move the race to aqu.

Andy, you say I am dismissive of the field, and you are right. I am because the holes in the opposition's form are enormous.

I think you, and others, are dismissive of chromes chances by seemingly fabricating this concept that he has distance issues. I have seen nothing of the sort, and, if anything, he's shown me he is better the further he goes.

None of this has anything to do with what I posted.

Good luck.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

I like wicked strongs chances.

If they move the race to aqu.

Andy, you say I am dismissive of the field, and you are right. I am because the holes in the opposition's form are enormous.

I think you, and others, are dismissive of chromes chances by seemingly fabricating this concept that he has distance issues. I have seen nothing of the sort, and, if anything, he's shown me he is better the further he goes.

This is silly. He ran fine at Gulfstream in that deep competitive allowance race over a speed favoring track. His Derby was pretty good also. He is the type of horse who will benefit from a smaller field. When he puts in that powerful run that he showed in the Wood he wont have to worry about all the traffic.

[Kasept]

Officially running in Woody Stephens per Ron Sanchez tweet..

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

None of this has anything to do with what I posted.

Good luck.

You are doomed, and here's proof!

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

This is silly. He ran fine at Gulfstream in that deep competitive allowance race over a speed favoring track. His Derby was pretty good also. He is the type of horse who will benefit from a smaller field. When he puts in that powerful run that he showed in the Wood he wont have to worry about all the traffic.