Social Inclusion -- what would you do?
 

Via twitter it has been reported that he had gate issues schooling this morning and has been asked to return for more gate schooling.

Obviously he is talented and very much belongs in the very best of races, but mentally I think he needs a lot of work. I probably would stay away from the mad house of Belmont Stakes day and look for a quieter spot to run.

GRENING: Social Inclusion "70-30' to Woody Stephens

After a disappointing experience at the gate on Monday, Social Inclusion is now most likely to run in the $500,000 Woody Stephens at seven furlong on Saturday as opposed to the $1.5 million Belmont Stakes at 1 1-2-miles, owner Ron Sanchez said Monday morning.

“I’d say it’s 70-30 Woody Stephens,” said Sanchez, who added he would wait til Wednesday - entry day - to make it official.

Social Inclusion acted up at the gate to the point where his connections are required to bring him back to school again on Wednesday. According to Sanchez, Social Inclusion acted up a little bit the first time but went in okay. After being backed out, Social Inclusion got "nervous and sweaty" and was difficult to load, Sanchez said. "To tell you the truth we were disappointed,” Sanchez said. “I wasn’t expecting that.”

Sanchez noted that with the Belmont Stakes starting in front of the grandstand, thus in front of a large crowd, Social Inclusion could possibly become unglued waiting to load. The Woody Stephens, a seven-furlong race, starts on the backside where there is no crowd.

They need to call in Monty Roberts :)

Maybe a new trainer would help. But I don't think they'll ever take him away from Azpura.

Why a new trainer? It's not the first time I have read this and am trying to figure out what his current trainer has done wrong that would lead people to suggest changing trainers.

I think someone like Monty Roberts would be a good idea, I had a horse that was terrified of trailers and refused to load, hired a guy like Monty and that horse not only loaded, but never hesitated again, sometimes the more you fight them, the worse they become and they start to anticipate the ordeal, he needs a big step back before they ruin him forever, you can change their perceptions of their fear, but you need someone with this type of experience if you don't want him to continually be manhandled into the gate .

Pass on this weekend and point to the Dwyer.

What are they trying to do? Are they looking at races where he can win to get them towards an ultimate goal? I would target the Haskell if he was my horse and get him there via the Pegasus or Dwyer. Thus, he would not be running this weekend.

Well, I've read a lot of criticism about the training pattern, his tendency for short 3 furlong workouts in particular, although Social Inclusion did gallop out strongly in the last work a lot farther.

I'm a huge fan of the horse though and saw no problem with his presence in the Belmont Stakes, up until the gate issues report.

Call me crazy but workouts with fractions of 33.2, 45.2, 58 and 109.4 rarely do much to settle a horse down especially 2 weeks after melting down in the post parade of a race. They have gate blankets that can be used to settle horses in the starting gate.

This is basic stuff...

What I would be trying to do with this horse is get a stakes win asap. For all the hype that surrounds him and the obvious talent he possesses, he has but a pair of stakes placings. The Woody Stevens could be a good stepping stone into the Haskell and make him a stakes winner which provides a nice fall back if he doesn't survive the season with all four legs intact. Especially if Monmouth continues to play like it has.

IMO the Belmont is a ridiculous spot for him as the only hope he'd have is to steal away on the front end under slow fractions which wont happen if he is rank nor is Espinoza going to let anyone get away with a 1/2 in 50 without pressure.

I got 2 horses from the vaunted MR program. If you want to burn money just set it on fire, dont give it away because of Robert Redford.

It just seems premature to think he needs a new trainer. All of the races he has run have been the right spots.

Ultimately I think he'll prove to be a 7-9 furlong type horse, but I see no problem if they take a shot in the Belmont. He certainly belongs and you only get one shot at the Belmont.

If it doesn't work out than go from there.

you dont turn down an 8 milllion dollar offer for the horse just to run him in the Woody Stephen. Enter him in the Belmont and try to prove to everyone you are not crazy you turned down that offer.

There's no clear-cut right answer to this.

The Belmont would appear the worst idea, but this horse would be extremely dangerous with a loose early lead.



Go watch the tape of his second career start, when he got loose through soft early fractions. He would have stayed 2 miles, with that trip.

Da' Tara had 3 lengths on them, after a quarter mile, in the 2008 Belmont. He drew off to win by more than 5 lengths and paid $79.00 to win.

After that blowout Belmont win by more than 5 lengths, Da' Tara was subsequently 0-for-11, failing five different times at the allowance level.

Social Inclusion was subjected to wide stalking trips chasing lively paces in both the Wood and Preakness. He's no longer feared. Horses like California Chrome and Samraat will not test him early.

Obviously, the loose lead is there for the taking, with Social Inclusion. The questions about his ability to get the distance will be to his benefit -- as rival jockeys will be less inclined to make a pre-mature move to confront him.

Personally, if he was my horse, I'd either skip the weekend or take a stab in the Belmont -- depending upon how the trainer believes he's doing coming up to this race.

Without seeing who goes in the other two races, provided those two races are what they typically are, it seems obvious that his best chance at a win is in the race he'll almost certainly get clear, the Belmont.

I think he's the only horse in there with a real shot to beat chrome.

I'm sorry, you think Social Inclusion is the only horse with a real shot to beat California Chrome in the Belmont?

If so, with all due respect, that is a horrendous opinion.

Yeah, I guess.

I think the field is pretty awful, and he's handled, quite easily, all the horses he's faced already.

If you like Tonalist, I'll throw right back at you that your opinion is horrible on that.

This is all provided weird stuff doesn't happen, injuries, horrific trips, bad rides, suicidal pace, etc. None of this seems likely to happen.

I'd love to hear who you think has a real shot at beating him, and why. It doesn't have to be an in depth explanation, but man, from where I sit, he towers over these.

CC seems to love the track, I see no evidence that a soft paced 12 furlongs will be a problem at all, and his competition sucks.

It's not that I think CC is a freak, it's that I think he's freakish relative to what he's facing.

He's not even the best horse in this crop.

:tro:

I'm not convinced that Tonalist is anything more than an East Coast version of Bayern.

The only prayer for bettors is that Samraat sets a quick pace (assuming SI goes to the Woody Stevens), CC has to chase late, and Commanding Curve picks up the pieces. If Chrome get a soft early pace it's over early.

Woody Stephens
Haskell
King's Bishop

This is basically a primer on how not to handicap.