How would a Chrome TC win affect breeding/bloodstock?

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

As a result of his pedigree, I don't understand why people assume this to be the case. I can't imagine that Coolmore, Darley or WinStar is particularly eager to put up big bucks to stand a son of Lucky Pulpit, and I just don't see these owners sending the horse to Japan.

Andy Beyer just wrote a column on exactly this:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/sports...499_story.html

I don't necessarily agree with this, principally the contention that his case would be bolstered had Lucky Pulpit produced a few more graded stakes winners. The reality is that through 2013 - 2014, as a sire LP has a total of 102 runners on the track. Mostly all of which are out of modest, at best, CA bred mares.
I don't think there is any argument that CC's mare was cheap, but there are a lot of mares that never ran, which in turn were highly productive broodmares (I don't think Zenyatta's mare was anything special on the track for instance).
With CC being a first foal and Lucky Pulpit's books being thin in quality, there is enough of a wildcard to assume taking a chance on both with some decent quality broodmare stock, even if only for 2 or 3 seasons. I'd say his value, should he win the Belmont, could be assessed north of 30 million dollars, and is why most assume that he won't ever run again should he pull it off.

[Cannon Shell]

I dont think there is a prayer of him being worth 30 million. That would put his stud fee in the 100k range. Just don't see that happening.

[Danzig]

he won't have the hysteria about him the way smarty did. you can see that now, because everyone was going nuts about smarty and a deal was cut before the belmont.
him being out of a nondescript mare doesn't help, but being by a pulpit colt does.

we all know that the odds are far better that he turns out to be a bust like the bid at stud, than a powerhouse like seattle slew.

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by Danzig

he won't have the hysteria about him the way smarty did. you can see that now, because everyone was going nuts about smarty and a deal was cut before the belmont.
him being out of a nondescript mare doesn't help, but being by a pulpit colt does.

we all know that the odds are far better that he turns out to be a bust like the bid at stud, than a powerhouse like seattle slew.

Smarty Jones was a son of a pretty fashionable sire in Elusive Quality, who was standing in his own right for about $50,000 back by 2004 (ultimately going up to $100,000 before sliding back down). That is a huge difference from Lucky Pulpit.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

Smarty Jones was a son of a pretty fashionable sire in Elusive Quality, who was standing in his own right for about $50,000 back by 2004 (ultimately going up to $100,000 before sliding back down). That is a huge difference from Lucky Pulpit.

oh, i know it. i figured every one knew it which is why i didn't go into that.

[geeker2]

Chrome & Zenyatta

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

Andy Beyer just wrote a column on exactly this:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/sports...499_story.html

I don't necessarily agree with this, principally the contention that his case would be bolstered had Lucky Pulpit produced a few more graded stakes winners. The reality is that through 2013 - 2014, as a sire LP has a total of 102 runners on the track. Mostly all of which are out of modest, at best, CA bred mares.
I don't think there is any argument that CC's mare was cheap, but there are a lot of mares that never ran, which in turn were highly productive broodmares (I don't think Zenyatta's mare was anything special on the track for instance).
With CC being a first foal and Lucky Pulpit's books being thin in quality, there is enough of a wildcard to assume taking a chance on both with some decent quality broodmare stock, even if only for 2 or 3 seasons. I'd say his value, should he win the Belmont, could be assessed north of 30 million dollars, and is why most assume that he won't ever run again should he pull it off.

Good article by Beyer. Best comparison that I can think of is Tiznow, and he was from a dam that had produced other good horses before him (such as Budroyale), unlike dam of California Chrome. Tiznow's first year stud fee was $30,000.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

Good article by Beyer. Best comparison that I can think of is Tiznow, and he was from a dam that had produced other good horses before him (such as Budroyale), unlike dam of California Chrome. Tiznow's first year stud fee was $30,000.

I think Japan is a very logical spot especially if he wins Belmont.