How would a Chrome TC win affect breeding/bloodstock?

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by FATPIANO

he will be retired right after the race, if he wins

As a result of his pedigree, I don't understand why people assume this to be the case. I can't imagine that Coolmore, Darley or WinStar is particularly eager to put up big bucks to stand a son of Lucky Pulpit, and I just don't see these owners sending the horse to Japan.

[Rupert Pupkin]

If he wins, it will have very little effect. It may have an effect on small-time people who will be encouraged to take a chance and breed a cheap mare to a cheap stallion. But most of the big owners who spend a lot of money on well bred horses are not going to change what they do. Why should they? If you have a guy with a good eye that picks out your yearlings for you, you're going to have a 100x better chance of getting a good horse by buying a $300,000 yearling than by breeding a cheap mare to a $2,500 stallion. It worked in this case, but the other 99.999% of the time you are not going to get a good horse when you breed a cheap mare to a $2,500 stallion.

In reality, Lucky Pulpit is obviously not a $2,500 stallion. He is probably more like a $10,000 sire or possibly even better. But nobody knew that at the time. You could take shot and look for a $2,500 sire that you think will be the next big thing. Malibu Moon stood for only $5,000 at the beginning. You could take a chance and try to find the next Malibu Moon but I don't think most of the big owners are going to go that route. They can afford to buy expensive yearlings and breed to the expensive stallions.

With regard to how much CC is worth, I don't think he's worth nearly what most of you think, win or lose the Belmont. I'll Have Another won the Derby and Preakness and then got hurt and was retired. They couldn't get a decent stud deal for him because people didn't like his pedigree. I think the top offer they got in this country was about $5 million. They finally got a little better offer in Japan and sent him over there. I think they got about $8 million.

If CC doesn't win the Belmont, I don't know why he would be worth any more than I'll Have Another. If he wins the Belmont, that would be a different story but I'm still not sure that he would be worth all that much with his pedigree. I could be way off on this but I don't think he could be worth much more than $10-$12 million as a stallion. Win or lose, I don't think he will be retired after the race unless he gets hurt.

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

As a result of his pedigree, I don't understand why people assume this to be the case. I can't imagine that Coolmore, Darley or WinStar is particularly eager to put up big bucks to stand a son of Lucky Pulpit, and I just don't see these owners sending the horse to Japan.

Andy Beyer just wrote a column on exactly this:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/sports...499_story.html

I don't necessarily agree with this, principally the contention that his case would be bolstered had Lucky Pulpit produced a few more graded stakes winners. The reality is that through 2013 - 2014, as a sire LP has a total of 102 runners on the track. Mostly all of which are out of modest, at best, CA bred mares.
I don't think there is any argument that CC's mare was cheap, but there are a lot of mares that never ran, which in turn were highly productive broodmares (I don't think Zenyatta's mare was anything special on the track for instance).
With CC being a first foal and Lucky Pulpit's books being thin in quality, there is enough of a wildcard to assume taking a chance on both with some decent quality broodmare stock, even if only for 2 or 3 seasons. I'd say his value, should he win the Belmont, could be assessed north of 30 million dollars, and is why most assume that he won't ever run again should he pull it off.

[Cannon Shell]

I dont think there is a prayer of him being worth 30 million. That would put his stud fee in the 100k range. Just don't see that happening.

[Danzig]

he won't have the hysteria about him the way smarty did. you can see that now, because everyone was going nuts about smarty and a deal was cut before the belmont.
him being out of a nondescript mare doesn't help, but being by a pulpit colt does.

we all know that the odds are far better that he turns out to be a bust like the bid at stud, than a powerhouse like seattle slew.

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by Danzig

he won't have the hysteria about him the way smarty did. you can see that now, because everyone was going nuts about smarty and a deal was cut before the belmont.
him being out of a nondescript mare doesn't help, but being by a pulpit colt does.

we all know that the odds are far better that he turns out to be a bust like the bid at stud, than a powerhouse like seattle slew.

Smarty Jones was a son of a pretty fashionable sire in Elusive Quality, who was standing in his own right for about $50,000 back by 2004 (ultimately going up to $100,000 before sliding back down). That is a huge difference from Lucky Pulpit.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

Smarty Jones was a son of a pretty fashionable sire in Elusive Quality, who was standing in his own right for about $50,000 back by 2004 (ultimately going up to $100,000 before sliding back down). That is a huge difference from Lucky Pulpit.

oh, i know it. i figured every one knew it which is why i didn't go into that.

[geeker2]

Chrome & Zenyatta

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

Andy Beyer just wrote a column on exactly this:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/sports...499_story.html

I don't necessarily agree with this, principally the contention that his case would be bolstered had Lucky Pulpit produced a few more graded stakes winners. The reality is that through 2013 - 2014, as a sire LP has a total of 102 runners on the track. Mostly all of which are out of modest, at best, CA bred mares.
I don't think there is any argument that CC's mare was cheap, but there are a lot of mares that never ran, which in turn were highly productive broodmares (I don't think Zenyatta's mare was anything special on the track for instance).
With CC being a first foal and Lucky Pulpit's books being thin in quality, there is enough of a wildcard to assume taking a chance on both with some decent quality broodmare stock, even if only for 2 or 3 seasons. I'd say his value, should he win the Belmont, could be assessed north of 30 million dollars, and is why most assume that he won't ever run again should he pull it off.

Good article by Beyer. Best comparison that I can think of is Tiznow, and he was from a dam that had produced other good horses before him (such as Budroyale), unlike dam of California Chrome. Tiznow's first year stud fee was $30,000.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

Good article by Beyer. Best comparison that I can think of is Tiznow, and he was from a dam that had produced other good horses before him (such as Budroyale), unlike dam of California Chrome. Tiznow's first year stud fee was $30,000.

I think Japan is a very logical spot especially if he wins Belmont.