You make the call.. Classic or Mile for Wise Dan?

[cakes44]

Was Goldikova "minor league"?

[my miss storm cat]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Yes I think he is a really special horse. I don't know how that would help market the sport.

Come on I could come up with a good campaign and so could you!

Originally Posted by cakes44

Yep, pretty sure POE was scratched because they knew he was going to blow the doors off Wise Dan that day and they just felt bad for him.

Originally Posted by King Glorious

Not at all. Nobody disputed the fact that he's a good horse but I don't see him at all as a star. Maybe if they ran him in higher profile races but what they are doing is like saying they have the best player in the league but playing him in the minors instead of the majors.

I love you and miss our Silent Witness debates.

Originally Posted by Danzig

wise dan's wins are minor league? oh boy.

Originally Posted by cakes44

Was Goldikova "minor league"?

KIngie isn't on but I can totally answer this for him. NO Goldikova was a great, should have been HOY in fact (I am answering for him or in his stead until he returns)...

Ask him about Makybe Diva or any HK legend (Silent Witness, Vengeance of Rain, Sacred Kingdom, Good Ba Ba, Bullish Luck et al)... to the best of my recollection Black Caviar has a good chance of being in this category as well.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

If you know anything about pace, you would know Wise Dan ran terrific in the Foster. He was much the best.

I saw you're recent post on PA about this. I'll admit I didn't remember it being that hot.

[RockHardTen1985]

[quote=cakes44;939844]Yep, pretty sure POE was scratched because they knew he was going to blow the doors off Wise Dan that day and they just felt bad

Thanks for making things up.

[SteveHaskin]

Why run John Henry in the Santa Anita Handicap twice and Jockey Club Gold Cup when he was strictly a grass horse? Result: Only horse to win the Big Cap twice.

Why keep trying to win the Washington D.C. International vs. the world's best turf horses with Kelso year after year when he was a dirt horse? Result: New American record for 1 1/2 miles and a fifth consecutvie Horse of the Year title.

Why run Forego in the 7f Vosburgh and Carter against brilliant sprinters like Mr. Prospector, Lonetree, and Timeless Moment when his best races were between 1 1/4 miles and 2 miles? Result: Only horse in history to win the 2-mile JC Gold Cup and be named champion sprinter the same year.

All through history, horses, not just these three great geldings, have stepped out of their comfort zone to strive for greatness. It wasnt about maintaining an unbeaten streak or the money. It was the sporting thing to do. Who remembers John Henry's, Forego's, and Kelso's defeats, except when those defeats actually boosted their reputation (ie Seattle Slew in the Gold Cup, Zenyatta in the Classic, Groupie Doll in last year's Cigar Mile)

Why run Arcangues in the BC Classic when he was strictly a grass horse? Result: Highest payoff in Breeders' Cup history.

Why stretch Ghostzapper out to 1 1/4 miles in the BC Classic when he had been two turns only once in his career and seven of his nine career starts were in sprints? Result: A new stakes record in the Classic and a Horse of the Year title.

Why run Raven's Pass and Henry the Navigator on a synthetic surface for the first time going 1 1/4 miles against the mighty Curlin when they were strictly grass milers? Result: an unprecedented European 1-2 finish.

Wise Dan is a truly great miler on the grass and there is nothing wrong with having that distinction. If they are content with that and to keep his unbeaten streak going, that's fine. It's their prerogative. They obviously don't have any aspirations of elevating him to the category of the all-time great geldings mentioned above. Again, that's their decision. There is something to be said for winning. Mort Fink said he was so confident before last year's BC Mile, because he knew the horse would do whatever he had to to win. For some owners, they wouldn't want to be that confident race after race, knowing their horse was going to win. Some would like to experience the thrill that doubt brings and savor a victory all the more, because it wasn't a foregone conclusion. Each owner is different.

And to those who say Wise Dan has no shot in the Classic, what is that based on? He's a grade I winner at 1 1/8 miles on dirt and didnt have the best of trips in his head defeat in a grade I at 1 1/8 miles. The all-time greats do things other than what they do best. That's what makes them all-time greats. Sometimes you have to take chances to attain that.

[SteveHaskin]

I also want to add about Ghostzapper, you couldn't push his half-brother City Zip past 6 furlongs.

I only mention all this because Wise Dan has so much potential greatness in him. If he didn't, I wouldn't give a hoot where they ran him. Today's game is very different than it used to be. For a fossil like myself, it's time to adapt to the new way of thinking.

[JJP]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

I saw you're recent post on PA about this. I'll admit I didn't remember it being that hot.

It was. The surface at CD that day wasn't that fast and they went under 1:11 to 6f. The race really came apart at the end with the final furlong run in slightly over 14 seconds.

[Danzig]

i agree, steve. he has potential greatness.

i just think perhaps the owner wants to take a stab at two races with his two horses. i think we'd all love to see wise dan in the classic. but i'm not going to complain about what he's done. it's certainly not minor league. and any time you have a horse that seems extremely talented, people want something different, a different test of his abilities. maybe this year, maybe next?
perhaps steve byk can get the owner and/or trainer on ATR, try to see what's up.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by SteveHaskin

I also want to add about Ghostzapper, you couldn't push his half-brother City Zip past 6 furlongs.

I only mention all this because Wise Dan has so much potential greatness in him. If he didn't, I wouldn't give a hoot where they ran him. Today's game is very different than it used to be. For a fossil like myself, it's time to adapt to the new way of thinking.

Of course City Zip didn't have Frankel and Frankel's vet....His progeny seem to be a little shy of winning on the dirt(Ghostzapper).

[Merlinsky]

Originally Posted by SteveHaskin

Why run John Henry in the Santa Anita Handicap twice and Jockey Club Gold Cup when he was strictly a grass horse? Result: Only horse to win the Big Cap twice.

Why keep trying to win the Washington D.C. International vs. the world's best turf horses with Kelso year after year when he was a dirt horse? Result: New American record for 1 1/2 miles and a fifth consecutvie Horse of the Year title.

Why run Forego in the 7f Vosburgh and Carter against brilliant sprinters like Mr. Prospector, Lonetree, and Timeless Moment when his best races were between 1 1/4 miles and 2 miles? Result: Only horse in history to win the 2-mile JC Gold Cup and be named champion sprinter the same year.

All through history, horses, not just these three great geldings, have stepped out of their comfort zone to strive for greatness. It wasnt about maintaining an unbeaten streak or the money. It was the sporting thing to do. Who remembers John Henry's, Forego's, and Kelso's defeats, except when those defeats actually boosted their reputation (ie Seattle Slew in the Gold Cup, Zenyatta in the Classic, Groupie Doll in last year's Cigar Mile)

Why run Arcangues in the BC Classic when he was strictly a grass horse? Result: Highest payoff in Breeders' Cup history.

Why stretch Ghostzapper out to 1 1/4 miles in the BC Classic when he had been two turns only once in his career and seven of his nine career starts were in sprints? Result: A new stakes record in the Classic and a Horse of the Year title.

Why run Raven's Pass and Henry the Navigator on a synthetic surface for the first time going 1 1/4 miles against the mighty Curlin when they were strictly grass milers? Result: an unprecedented European 1-2 finish.

Wise Dan is a truly great miler on the grass and there is nothing wrong with having that distinction. If they are content with that and to keep his unbeaten streak going, that's fine. It's their prerogative. They obviously don't have any aspirations of elevating him to the category of the all-time great geldings mentioned above. Again, that's their decision. There is something to be said for winning. Mort Fink said he was so confident before last year's BC Mile, because he knew the horse would do whatever he had to to win. For some owners, they wouldn't want to be that confident race after race, knowing their horse was going to win. Some would like to experience the thrill that doubt brings and savor a victory all the more, because it wasn't a foregone conclusion. Each owner is different.

And to those who say Wise Dan has no shot in the Classic, what is that based on? He's a grade I winner at 1 1/8 miles on dirt and didnt have the best of trips in his head defeat in a grade I at 1 1/8 miles. The all-time greats do things other than what they do best. That's what makes them all-time greats. Sometimes you have to take chances to attain that.

Amen, Steve, and speaking of Curlin, don't forget his 1 3/8 on grass in the Man O' War. Sure he lost but he did well in 2nd and beat Better Talk Now which ain't nothin'. I still think he could've handled other tries on turf.

Originally Posted by SteveHaskin

I also want to add about Ghostzapper, you couldn't push his half-brother City Zip past 6 furlongs.

I only mention all this because Wise Dan has so much potential greatness in him. If he didn't, I wouldn't give a hoot where they ran him. Today's game is very different than it used to be. For a fossil like myself, it's time to adapt to the new way of thinking.

You're not a fossil, Steve. You're a treasure. I feel the same way about Wise Dan as Zenyatta and Azeri (pre-Lukas). If they're capable of doing more in their campaigns than they're doing, I'm just gonna feel let down if they play it safe. I still think Rachel belonged in the 2010 Stephen Foster. Her campaign decisions that year still leave me scratching my head.

[PatCummings]

Originally Posted by SteveHaskin

I also want to add about Ghostzapper, you couldn't push his half-brother City Zip past 6 furlongs.

I only mention all this because Wise Dan has so much potential greatness in him. If he didn't, I wouldn't give a hoot where they ran him. Today's game is very different than it used to be. For a fossil like myself, it's time to adapt to the new way of thinking.

Great comments, Steve, and thanks for sharing the perspective. I've been super critical of the Wise Dan campaign mostly because I really believe he could be one of the special ones who can display his versatility on all surfaces and at longer distances, and it frustrates me seeing him limited to the mile grass races.

You hate having to wonder "what could've been" with so many horses whose careers DID end prematurely. Here's one whose career hasn't ended, and is a gelding, and the grit he showed in his Clark win, the dominance in the Ben Ali (with its 117 BSF), and you think he could be so much more...it stinks having to wonder "what could be" when it seems this question won't be answered.

[-BT-]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Great turf miler, sure. He wasn't beating POE at 9f derby day. Shame he's hurt now. Look at his last dirt race, he lost to Ron The Greek, who is OK, but no one mistakes for great.

[quote=cakes44;939844]Yep, pretty sure POE was scratched because they knew he was going to blow the doors off Wise Dan that day and they just felt bad

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Thanks for making things up.

"making things up"

you just anointed a horse who scratched the day of, a winner, over reigning horse of the year.

racing people are a fickle bunch, you don't run past 3 people gripe. You only run against your own sex, people gripe. You go to the shed at the first sign of an injury, people gripe. You only race at specific distance, people gripe.

the horse has won on multiple surfaces, at multiple distance, AT multiple tracks.
I feel sorry for those of you who knock a horse like this, saying he's not a true great b/c he's not/never been in the BC Classic, i assume you're the same people who gripe when a horse is retired.

these connections are essentially doing us a favor by continuing to run this horse, WHEREVER that may be, people should stop the hating and start the embracing

-bt-

[Merlinsky]

I heard over the weekend that they wanted to go 3 more years with Wise Dan which means he'd retire after racing at age 9. If they're trying to keep him undefeated this year, is it a stretch to think they've got designs on the win streak? He's at 8 so far (would've been 12 if he hadn't lost the Stephen Foster) and if he finishes this year undefeated followed by next season, it'll be within reach. Keeping him mostly on grass could just be an effort maintain him long term, but the longer he plays it safe and stays healthy, the better the chances are that he gets the streak. Obviously challenging the horse isn't the priority, and it's not stud value. This would be another accomplishment for them to think about. I find it hard to believe they aren't thinking about that if they're considering his long term career and when they'd like to stop. You talk about what you'd like to do with the horse. An all-time win streak record in N.A. done at the top level? Another impressive laurel. (Not as much as Cigar and Citation's to me, but hey.)

[my miss storm cat]

Originally Posted by -BT-

you just anointed a horse who scratched the day of, a winner, over reigning horse of the year.

Huh?

Cakes dear... you're gonna have to preface it with some kind of little warning or something next time you're being sarcastic.

[classhandicapper]

I think Wise Dan has clearly demonstrated he has the versatility to compete against the best horses in the game across all surfaces at middle distances.

However, I also think we are so used to trainers not knowing their own horses well, we assume that's true of all trainers.

To me, Charles Lopresti seems to be a trainer of extraordinary talent. Just look at the job he has done with Successful Dan also. Amazing!

I don't think the winning streak (he's already lost a bunch of races) or HOTY have anything to do with the thinking of Wise Dan's connections. They have to know this campaign won't get him HOTY again or even enhance his reputation a great deal.

My guess is that the connections think Wise Dan does NOT want to go further than 9F against the best horses in the country and they also believe they are competent enough to make that assessment without running him. So the Classic and Turf Classic are off the radar. Once you reach that conclusion, the best way to win the Turf Mile again (and some great horses have done just that) is to probably do exactly what they are doing, not bouncing back and forth between surfaces, running in the Whitney or Woodward or some Classic race on synthetic in CA etc...

The may be thinking along these lines.

It's one thing to throw your horse into a challenging situation that he's prepared to handle and has a decent chance to be successful at. It's another to throw him into a race you already know he can't win just because the fans want it.

I'm sure there are loads of people here that disagree with that assessment of Dan or feel like the horse deserves a chance to prove it on the track, but I really don't think the winning streak or HOTY have anything to do with their thinking. So what else can it be.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I think Wise Dan has clearly demonstrated he has the versatility to compete against the best horses in the game across all surfaces at middle distances.

However, I also think we are so used to trainers not knowing their own horses well, we assume that's true of all trainers.

To me, Charles Lopresti seems to be a trainer of extraordinary talent. Just look at the job he has done with Successful Dan also. Amazing!

I don't think the winning streak (he's already lost a bunch of races) or HOTY have anything to do with the thinking of Wise Dan's connections. They have to know this campaign won't get him HOTY again or even enhance his reputation a great deal.

My guess is that the connections think Wise Dan does NOT want to go further than 9F against the best horses in the country and they also believe they are competent enough to make that assessment without running him. So the Classic and Turf Classic are off the radar. Once you reach that conclusion, the best way to win the Turf Mile again (and some great horses have done just that) is to probably do exactly what they are doing, not bouncing back and forth between surfaces, running in the Whitney or Woodward or some Classic race on synthetic in CA etc...

The may be thinking along these lines.

It's one thing to throw your horse into a challenging situation that he's prepared to handle and has a decent chance to be successful at. It's another to throw him into a race you already know he can't win just because the fans want it.

I'm sure there are loads of people here that disagree with that assessment of Dan or feel like the horse deserves a chance to prove it on the track, but I really don't think the winning streak or HOTY have anything to do with their thinking. So what else can it be.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by cakes44

Was Goldikova "minor league"?

I obviously don't mean every single race has been a minor league race. But I ask you, is the Firecracker or Fourstardave really major league?

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

I obviously don't mean every single race has been a minor league race. But I ask you, is the Firecracker or Fourstardave really major league?

Have you seen the fields in the so-called major league races lately?

The funny thing is that if he were a Euro horse no one would even question him running in the mile again.

[King Glorious]

Two good points. I would counter by saying that at least I can you run in the top races, nobody can accuse you of taking the easy way out. And I know in general you're right about the European thing but I don't think this is a comparable situation. With a Euro, Goldikova, for instance, she hadn't run on other surfaces so she's would be asked to do something she'd never done. Not so with Wise Dan.

[Calzone Lord]

Ever since Wise Dan was 4th in the Shadwell Mile on turf, he's been a much improved horse and has done nothing except run top class races.

His Stephen Foster was a much better race than he's ever run on dirt, and it was MUCH better than his easy win in the "Grade 1" Clark, which was his two-back dirt race.

Anyone who thinks Ron The Greek ran as well as Wise Dan in the Foster, probably still believes Golden Soul is way better than Palace Malice, Oxbow, and Verrazano.

Fort Larned had virtually the exact same trip as Wise Dan did in the Foster, and Fort Larned finished a long way last ... and he "recaptured his form" off of two-weeks rest after the Foster debacle.

No one likes to categorize race horses as specialists any more than I do, I'm a big believer in it, still, I'm not sold Wise Dan is a specialist in terms of surface.

Watch his Foster again, it was a +19 and note that both he and Fort Larned caused each other plenty of trouble before the first turn. When horses get impeded while chasing a loose leader who is going too fast, they don't run representative races.

It's a very specific and circumstantial sort of troubled trip that doesn't happen very often throughout the country, and one that isn't easy to identify without good figures ... but such horses are great next-out bets because those type of performances discourage everyone from bettors, to the horses human connections, to the human connection of rival horses.

The BC Classic is the wrong spot for Wise Dan. He's not going to last ten furlongs in a race with so many high-quality similar running style types like Game On Dude, Fort Larned, Cross Traffic, Palace Malice, Verrezano, etc.

Still, he's a much better dirt horse than a whole lot of very smart people think, IMO.