Belmont Stakes Pace Scenario

[nfliehman]

Originally Posted by jms62

You should really expect as much when you ask about the chances of a horse in the Belmont that owns 2 career wins, the maiden coming in his 4th start and the other an 25K Optional Claimer. Seriously against this field what am I missing?

I do not have close to the horse racing knowledge most on this board have. With that being said, I read somewhere last night that his pedigree is well suited for this distance. I didn't know if he was deemed a closer or not. With people saying closers could have the best chance to win and his pedigree I thought he could have a chance to at least hit the board. Thanks for the info though

[hurricanefrank]

Originally Posted by jms62

You should really expect as much when you ask about the chances of a horse in the Belmont that owns 2 career wins, the maiden coming in his 4th start and the other an 25K Optional Claimer. Seriously against this field what am I missing?

Maybe so. But think Sarava in 2002. He faced a more talented field than this 2013 bunch, looked every bit the part of a 70-1 shot and...

[tanner12oz]

Originally Posted by hurricanefrank

Maybe so. But think Sarava in 2002. He faced a more talented field than this 2013 bunch, looked every bit the part of a 70-1 shot and...

didn't Attigun have zip in terms of experience but still run lights out also?

[MaTH716]

Originally Posted by hurricanefrank

Maybe so. But think Sarava in 2002. He faced a more talented field than this 2013 bunch, looked every bit the part of a 70-1 shot and...

Didn't Sarava win a stakes race on the Preakness undercard 3 weeks earlier?

[pweizer]

Originally Posted by tanner12oz

didn't Attigun have zip in terms of experience but still run lights out also?

No and No.

Paul

[hurricanefrank]

Originally Posted by MaTH716

Didn't Sarava win a stakes race on the Preakness undercard 3 weeks earlier?

Yes. He easily won the Sir Barton.

[cakes44]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Unlimited Budget is a horse that we have competitive on figures.

I just don't like her in this spot. She was a good 2yo Sales horse last year. Not a real fast work, but 21.60 and she had the best gallop out of any filly at that sale and she cost a ton of money for a Street Sense/Valid Appeal.

On top of being one who trained at the sales, she has done A Lot of developing from age 2 to 3. Compare her Demoiselle form to her 3yo form and compare Overanalyze's Remsen to his 3yo form.

Unlimited Budget has already developed like a healthy thriving colt is supposed to, where as Overanalyze hasn't developed any...which is weird for a colt who has stayed healthy and hasn't missed any training.

I flirted with the idea of taking a shot and picking/stabbing with Overanalyze to win this race as a "grow-up play" and with the idea that he is one of those Pletcher horses like Stay Thirsty who doesn't run a step at Churchill.

Overanalyze ran brutal at Churchill at age 2, and in his next start, bounced back to win the best 2yo race of the year in the Remsen. He didn't get any puffed up Florida form this winter for Pletcher, he actually won at Oaklawn, which had been a house of horrors for Pletcher prior to him winning there.

I don't usually make a big deal about jockeys, but I don't like that John Velazquez is on him. There are two guys in the room (Jose Lezcano and Junior Alvarado) who fit the horse very well, and they are guys I like on that type of horse in a race where I expect the pace to be fast and contested. IMO, You would have gained a little something on the track over Johnny V. with both guys, and from a betting standpoint, you would have gained higher odds with either one of those guys as well. But Velazquez gets the business in that barn and he's generally a good rider, just not a guy I like in the situation I envision on a horse like Overanalyze.

So you're worried about JV, but you think Mike Smith is going to be able to get Palice Malice to stalk and pounce? The next time Smitty keeps a horse covered up who isn't in last will be his first in 5 years.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by cakes44

So you're worried about JV, but you think Mike Smith is going to be able to get Palice Malice to stalk and pounce? The next time Smitty keeps a horse covered up who isn't in last will be his first in 5 years.

I don't care much at all who the jockey is with Palace Malice.

They're going to let the horse place himself where he's comfortable running and just try to run a more efficient race. I don't care if he's covered up, in fact it might be better if he isn't with a horse like that.

With Overanalyze you'd want a patient jockey and a very strong finisher. The two best jockeys are sitting in the room and watching it on TV...I hate Johnny on these type of horses in race where I expect a quick and contested pace.

Still, jockeys are a very minor factor. It's unlikely to make a difference, but those two might have helped Overanalyze a little bit, and they would have resulted in better odds because the reputation of the Pletcher/Velazquez combo.

[largo1]

Hey Calzone Lord,
Can I get your pre-race analysis on both Golden Soul and Freedom Child? I always enjoy your commentary and as a relative newbie, would appreciate your input.
Good racing luck to all!

[Calzone Lord]

Both Freedom Child and Golden Soul will be off my tickets.

I respect Freedom Child, but I expect him to be a pace casualty. Frac Daddy is sending inside of him and the very good Oxbow will obviously be forward. The survivor of that wave of speed probably gets to take the best shot Vyjack and Palace Malice has on the turn. It's a very tough scenario for both FC and Oxbow. The commitment to send Frac Daddy may seem irrelevant, but it's not. Whenever the pace has been 47 and change or faster, it's usually collapsed Belmont's past. If Frac Daddy really is sent from the inside, there's no chance this pace isn't at least 47.

Golden Soul will get another great pace setup, but I don't like post #14, I don't like that he had a workout postponed because he wasn't eating well, and I'm generally not a fan of Dallas Stewart horses when he runs them in New York.

[zippyneedsawin]

I suspect Repoles longshot Midnight Taboo may be there to contribute to the pace as well.

[cakes44]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

I don't care much at all who the jockey is with Palace Malice.

They're going to let the horse place himself where he's comfortable running and just try to run a more efficient race. I don't care if he's covered up, in fact it might be better if he isn't with a horse like that.

With Overanalyze you'd want a patient jockey and a very strong finisher. The two best jockeys are sitting in the room and watching it on TV...I hate Johnny on these type of horses in race where I expect a quick and contested pace.

Still, jockeys are a very minor factor. It's unlikely to make a difference, but those two might have helped Overanalyze a little bit, and they would have resulted in better odds because the reputation of the Pletcher/Velazquez combo.

Yep, I hear ya. Appreciate the response CL.

[10 pnt move up]

Pace seemed crazy fast to me.

[outofthebox]

Boy did Orb blow another opportunity! Final 1/2 in 54 seconds and he flattened out late and couldnt pass the staggering leaders..Calzone was spot on about the pace. Maybe even a 10 out of 10.

[letswastemoney]

Another terrific race by Oxbow, even if he lost.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by outofthebox

Boy did Orb blow another opportunity! Final 1/2 in 54 seconds and he flattened out late and couldnt pass the staggering leaders..Calzone was spot on about the pace. Maybe even a 10 out of 10.

I know one thing, when they put up 46 and change he was not running to bet any of the leaders.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by outofthebox

Boy did Orb blow another opportunity! Final 1/2 in 54 seconds and he flattened out late and couldnt pass the staggering leaders..Calzone was spot on about the pace. Maybe even a 10 out of 10.

Thanks man.

That was solid, but unspectacular Orb at his finest.

Had Orb finished 2nd, I would have selected the exacta cold in the newspaper.

I ended up stabbing with Palace Malice and selected him to win the Belmont in the Erie newspaper: (picks are on right hand side of the link below)

http://www.goerie.com/article/201306...Belmont-Stakes


I wish I had more conviction with Palace Malice. I hated that horse prior to the Derby. So, it was tough to pick him on top in the Belmont Stakes ... and ultimately I only did because he figured to be the biggest price of three Pletcher colts with a look...and when you're doing newspaper picks, you have to pick someone 1st.

It just felt like a race where the good Orb would run 2nd to something that jumps up and the bad Orb would plug on for 3rd.

Anyway, this was a fun triple crown series. It's a very memorable one because the Derby was just about the fastest paced dirt race of the entire year on pace figures. Only one race at Laurel, where a horse totally ran off, is close.

Oxbow and Palace Malice both had ugly backform going into the Derby, but they both ran the race of their life in the Derby, and their heroic performances in the Derby were totally concealed by up the track results, finishing well behind a nobuddy closer like Golden Soul.

Anyway, it should be a very fun Haskell and Travers.

[JerseyJ]

That was a pretty heroic effort though into that pace by Oxbow though wasn't it? I know the pace was fast, but was it 10 out of 10 fast? I am not sure I am the one to truly assess that.

I am wondering though, while I think that the Preakness woke people up that Oxbow was a nice colt, if the Belmont might just help him even more in the long run, seeing as how the two horses that he dueled with on the front end, Frac Daddy and Freedom Child ended up beaten over 110 lengths combined between the two, with both being beaten 50+ lengths. After seeing Oxbow bury those two colts into submission and still gamely continue on to the end, who is going to want to go early and hook up with him? Might just help him down the line.

And what to say about McPeek? Not to say that Frac Daddy ever had a chance, but how much of a donkey move was it to send him from the rail? I am not saying the horse was ever that good, but I wouldn't be shocked if he doesn't ever come anywhere close to a race he's ever ran...throwing him to the wolves in a race he never had a chance in, and sending him against speedy horses like Freedom Child and Oxbow? A demoralizing type of thing.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

nice job today doug..your 2 for 2

[3kings]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Nothing particularly strong on the Belmont from me. I'm pretty confident how the race will be run, I expect the pace to be quick and contested and the race will play to the benefit of closers.

I think the four main contenders to win are Palace Malice, Orb, Revolutionary, and Overanalyze...but I'm awfully wishy-washy in terms of which I want most.

In terms of how I intend to bet the race ... I'm using Orb as an underneath exotic key with those three other horses. I think Orb is very safe to fire, but he's not real good value, and I expect at least one of those three Pletchers to jump way up, and if they do I'll have a very nice profit.

Exacta key: 3-9-12 over 5

Trifecta Key: 3-9-12 over 3-9-12 over 5

It's not a great betting race, but it's not a bad one either. I look forward to it.

Doug, you got me to include Palice Malice. Thank you. I'll make it to PID this summer and but you dinner and drinks.