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#2
06-06-2013, 08:20 PM
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#4
06-06-2013, 08:48 PM
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Thought Rosie was one of the few who understood how to ration speed well enough to give the filly a solid chance to win even with the limits of her distance pedigree but your far more aware of the subtlety's involved here with pace ...
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#5
06-06-2013, 10:32 PM
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I just don't like her in this spot. She was a good 2yo Sales horse last year. Not a real fast work, but 21.60 and she had the best gallop out of any filly at that sale and she cost a ton of money for a Street Sense/Valid Appeal. On top of being one who trained at the sales, she has done A Lot of developing from age 2 to 3. Compare her Demoiselle form to her 3yo form and compare Overanalyze's Remsen to his 3yo form. Unlimited Budget has already developed like a healthy thriving colt is supposed to, where as Overanalyze hasn't developed any...which is weird for a colt who has stayed healthy and hasn't missed any training. I flirted with the idea of taking a shot and picking/stabbing with Overanalyze to win this race as a "grow-up play" and with the idea that he is one of those Pletcher horses like Stay Thirsty who doesn't run a step at Churchill. Overanalyze ran brutal at Churchill at age 2, and in his next start, bounced back to win the best 2yo race of the year in the Remsen. He didn't get any puffed up Florida form this winter for Pletcher, he actually won at Oaklawn, which had been a house of horrors for Pletcher prior to him winning there. I don't usually make a big deal about jockeys, but I don't like that John Velazquez is on him. There are two guys in the room (Jose Lezcano and Junior Alvarado) who fit the horse very well, and they are guys I like on that type of horse in a race where I expect the pace to be fast and contested. IMO, You would have gained a little something on the track over Johnny V. with both guys, and from a betting standpoint, you would have gained higher odds with either one of those guys as well. But Velazquez gets the business in that barn and he's generally a good rider, just not a guy I like in the situation I envision on a horse like Overanalyze.
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#6
06-07-2013, 08:34 PM
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So you're worried about JV, but you think Mike Smith is going to be able to get Palice Malice to stalk and pounce? The next time Smitty keeps a horse covered up who isn't in last will be his first in 5 years.
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#7
06-07-2013, 08:47 PM
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They're going to let the horse place himself where he's comfortable running and just try to run a more efficient race. I don't care if he's covered up, in fact it might be better if he isn't with a horse like that. With Overanalyze you'd want a patient jockey and a very strong finisher. The two best jockeys are sitting in the room and watching it on TV...I hate Johnny on these type of horses in race where I expect a quick and contested pace. Still, jockeys are a very minor factor. It's unlikely to make a difference, but those two might have helped Overanalyze a little bit, and they would have resulted in better odds because the reputation of the Pletcher/Velazquez combo.
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#9
06-08-2013, 09:29 AM
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#10
06-08-2013, 11:03 PM
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__________________
Revidere Last edited by Revidere : 06-08-2013 at 11:27 PM.
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#11
06-08-2013, 11:52 PM
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Doug ......great job analyzing this race, your pace analysis was spot on. You made me go back and look at Palace Malace and i had liked him from a breeding standpoint and I included him in both the multis and trifectas along with Oxbow who I thought was the best of the forwardly placed horses, Orb and Revolutionary.
  Thanks again
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#12
06-09-2013, 10:44 AM
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On a side note, how many of the 14 horses in the race yesterday actually put in any kind of run at any point, like 4?
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#13
06-06-2013, 09:50 PM
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__________________
Books serve to show a man that those original thoughts of his aren't very new at all. Abraham Lincoln
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#14
06-07-2013, 09:09 AM
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after his Preakness comments, it would be Because.......he said so  which is good enough for me.
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#15
06-07-2013, 09:24 AM
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Nothing particularly strong on the Belmont from me. I'm pretty confident how the race will be run, I expect the pace to be quick and contested and the race will play to the benefit of closers.
I think the four main contenders to win are Palace Malice, Orb, Revolutionary, and Overanalyze...but I'm awfully wishy-washy in terms of which I want most. In terms of how I intend to bet the race ... I'm using Orb as an underneath exotic key with those three other horses. I think Orb is very safe to fire, but he's not real good value, and I expect at least one of those three Pletchers to jump way up, and if they do I'll have a very nice profit. Exacta key: 3-9-12 over 5 Trifecta Key: 3-9-12 over 3-9-12 over 5 It's not a great betting race, but it's not a bad one either. I look forward to it.
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#16
06-07-2013, 09:56 AM
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In terms of how I intend to bet the race ... I'm using Orb as an underneath exotic key with those three other horses. I think Orb is very safe to fire, but he's not real good value, and I expect at least one of those three Pletchers to jump way up, and if they do I'll have a very nice profit.
Exacta key: 3-9-12 over 5 Trifecta Key: 3-9-12 over 3-9-12 over 5 It's not a great betting race, but it's not a bad one either. I look forward to it.[/quote] What are your thoughts on Incognito?
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#18
06-07-2013, 10:26 AM
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9/5/14/2
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#19
06-07-2013, 11:59 AM
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Hybrid Mode
